Could Eugene de Beauharnais have kept Milan in 1814?

[LordKalvan]

Well, I agree that it is not a probable outcome, but I still think it is possible. Murat looks to be easier, but the guy was hated by almost everyone and too backstabbing for his own good. Beauharnais is far from a political genius, but he has much better dynastic connections. Also he looks like a person that could heed good advice and know his own limits.

What I would prefer to see is:
-a mid sized independent italian Kingdom centered on Lombardy, hence the Beauharnais option.
-an Austria that is more focused on Germany, leading to a more interesting German dualism.
-if possible, avoiding restoration of the Papal States, or at least reducing them as much as possible.

Maybe a slightly more realistic POD would be agreeing to one of the offers in late 1813, at the latest in January 1814, Melzi d'Eril was lobbing hard for that, but how could Eugene have betrayed his father? At that point a Napoleonic return could be even good, as Eugene could prove his good faith to the allies, in contrast to Murat probably...

As for future enemies, I wouldn't be as worried as you are, my dear Lord Kalvan: the serious ones are Austria and Piedmont yes, but I wouldn't worry much about Spain (too far), the Italian puppets (too weak), the Two Sicilies (not going to expand north very much, and they have their own instability problems), UK (no great divergence of interests) or even France (no common borders and also prone to political instability). If Eugene is recognised at Vienna he will rule as a conservative and be imho quite safe, then, when the reactionary order starts cracking in the next decades... Well let's say that ittl the Savoia won't be the only hope for unification, nor the best one.

As for the title, you are obviously right about the extent of ancient Lombardy, but I wasn't thinking of him actually donning the Iron Crown. Maybe something like Grand Duke of Transpadania could be a less ambitious and hence more palatable title?

Well, I didn't say it was impossible but rather against odds. It's true that a lot of very strange things happened in the 19th century and therefore Eugene securing a crown is certainly possible, but it would take a serious dose of luck since he was no political genius (as you say) and he has no Talleyrand at his beck and call.

In a way the major difficulties will come after his Milanese crown is confirmed, since he'll have to walk a difficult path between the conservative and the liberal camp in an European diplomatic landscape which is much less stable than IOTL.
I was alluding to this when I mentioned "far away patrons and much closer enemies": his true patrons are Alexander (whose death in the 1820s is not going to be butterflied away) and his father-in-law (whose new domains are further away, and who needs anyway to secure his new throne). I can possibly see Alexander putting pressure on Austria, but what happens when Nicholas take the throne? Is Eugene going to grant a constitution (nothing too fancy or liberal, just something patterned on the one granted by the Bourbons in France, but anyway something which will not be liked by Austria).

Mind, I'm not trying to dissuade you from exploring this what if: I'm always interested in Italian timelines, in particular the ones which can avoid a Savoy-driven unification of Italy.

I've to tell you that I don't like at all the idea of naming Eugene "Grand Duke of Transpadania": it sounds (and it is) completely fake.
First of all, starting with Napoleon's abolition of the HRE, kingly crowns were awarded with a lot of ease: why penalise poor Eugene? In the worst case, Tuscany plus Umbria might get an upgrade too.
Second, the name "Transpadania" was never used at all in history (not to mention that Romagna is anyway below the Po river).

IMHO the style "king of Lombardy" is the right one (my apologies if my previous post gave you the idea that it might be too lordly, or whet the appetites of Eugene: poor Eugene will have to play the role of a shy and humble mouse for quite a number of years anyway). The only alternative might be styling him as "Grand Duke of Milan and Romagna", but it would be petty.

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

Indeed, Transpadania was a spur of the moment invention, and not a particularly brilliant one! I also concur that the title of Grand Duke of Milan and Modena would be rather lame.

In any case, your comment, inputs and criticisms are always very welcome! (Did you see the thread where I presented some other TL ideas BTW? Eugene is winning ATM, but I think the others have some merit too...)

 

[LordKalvan]

Since you asked so nicely, I did cast my vote in your poll (although I don't like to participate in polls as a rule).
You'll be not surprised to learn I voted for the Eugene TL.
I do hope that this time around RL will be kinder to you and you will manage to reach the end of the century

Incidentally, IOTL Eugene died quite young (42 years old) in 1824. Do you know what he died of? If he dies at the same age, his heir would be under age in 1824 and this would be an additional complication for Lombardy

 

[Gonzaga]

Incidentally, IOTL Eugene died quite young (42 years old) in 1824. Do you know what he died of? If he dies at the same age, his heir would be under age in 1824 and this would be an additional complication for Lombardy

Apparently he died of a brain attack (CVA).

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

Since you asked so nicely, I did cast my vote in your poll (although I don't like to participate in polls as a rule).
You'll be not surprised to learn I voted for the Eugene TL.
I do hope that this time around RL will be kinder to you and you will manage to reach the end of the century

Incidentally, IOTL Eugene died quite young (42 years old) in 1824. Do you know what he died of? If he dies at the same age, his heir would be under age in 1824 and this would be an additional complication for Lombardy

Thank you very much!
Apparently he died of a stroke, so that could be butterflied away for a couple of years. Apart from RL, it might be that I have some commitment issues with my TLs... The problem with An Ausonian Tale was always the contradiction between the push for unification and that to "Make Naples great again" so to say... Dall'Alpe a Sicilia instead was a republican/federalist fantasy, but the problem was that I had not a real plan about what to do after beating the Austrians.

About what you wrote in your earlier post, it's true that Eugène will have to be carefule, but I am fairly confident that he would rule as a conservative without scaring anyone, the French constitution was accepted by Louis XVIII, that should be enough to give it a pretension of respectability that Austria wouldn't deny.

When a revolution in France happens however, things will change also in Italy (note that if the Papal States are almost dismantled there would be much less cause for revolution in Romagna)...

 

[LordKalvan]

A stroke of whatever kind or even an embolism are not good news: it's true that it can be postponed a few years by authorial fiat, but it is almost impossible he'll celebrate his fiftieth birthday. I was hoping he died because of pneumonia or something similar which might be more easily butterflied away by living in a different place.

This means that Eugene is going to die relatively soon, and that is almost a given that the French Revolution of 1830 will happen not long after his death and at a time when his young heir has not yet digested the reality of becoming king (I believe that once Charles X gets the crown, the days of the Bourbon monarchy are numbered). Interesting times.

Re. the Ausonian Tale, I'd say you took the wrong message from the way the TL was developing. Naples had already become "great again" by the time you stopped the TL. It is true that also Emilia and Tuscany had progressed a lot by that time, and given the advantages in terms of agricultural productivity and availability of hidropower and sea ports they were probably even more prosperous than Naples. However the Muratian Naples described in the story was so different and better from OTL Naples that it's not even funny.

The 1848 TL was an impossible task. I would probably be able to concoct a TL where a better Charles Albert can turn the tables and liberate northern Italy, but when I tried to find a way to do the same without Sardinia I did not find any reasonable way to reach the goal.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

I'm just curious, how might Eugène beinga king of sorts affect the matrimonial prospects of his children? His wife/widow, OTL was against her younger son marrying a Russian grand duchess since she was scared it would lead to the Russification of the family.

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

I'm just curious, how might Eugène beinga king of sorts affect the matrimonial prospects of his children? His wife/widow, OTL was against her younger son marrying a Russian grand duchess since she was scared it would lead to the Russification of the family.

I would say rather strongly, as now, being princes from a sovereign House their marriages acquire a deeper political significance.

Josephine could maybe still marry Oskar of Sweden, out of natural solidarity among Napoleonids.
Eugenie: I would marry her to a Savoy, or possibly in France?
Auguste: his will be the most important marriage, as he his the heir. Maybe a Bourbon of Naples? Or a russian connection, to keep the friendship alive (although this might be diffcult once the Kingdom plays a role in the liberal turmoils that I foresee around 1830).
Amelie: What other Catholic Houses are there? I would say Portugal or Spain or Wettin
Theodolinde: the same as above.
Caroline and Maximillian are both born after the POD, so maybe their sexes are inverted or their dates of birth are different.

There are many possible combinations, but I would say that overall the Beauharnais marriage prospects are pretty good, as they married really high even in otl.

Maybe I will need Kynan to come out with his handy genealogies

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Would Eugene become an advocate for Napoleon II's right to the French Throne? Eugene was historically very loyal to his step father and I am interested if some ATL guilt from his 'betrayal' might make him a supporter of his step-brother's claim during the turmoil that will affect France. Can't hurt the cause to have a neighboring state supporting you, especially if Austria decided to work with Eugene to push the half-Austrian heir.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Maybe have the Saxon Polish Crisis become a full blown war and have Eugene fight on the side of Prussia and Russia.

Its unlikely he sides with Pr/Ru as its likely he would be the first to be defeated by the Western allies and Austria. Even if they were to eventually lose in Saxony and Poland....not a given by any means, but they would be unlikely to give up their one real gain...and the Wettin's will need something in compensation.

No its better he remain unaligned, but guardian of the Western and Austrian interests in the peninsula or even allied. It strengthens the Austrian and Western position and makes it less likely they will want to have him usurped later ( at least if he actively allies) The Dutch and the Scandinavians can also likely be counted on to support the Westerner's and Austria.

To the point that war is likely averted and the historical compromise is implemented with minor revisions.

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

Would Eugene become an advocate for Napoleon II's right to the French Throne? Eugene was historically very loyal to his step father and I am interested if some ATL guilt from his 'betrayal' might make him a supporter of his step-brother's claim during the turmoil that will affect France. Can't hurt the cause to have a neighboring state supporting you, especially if Austria decided to work with Eugene to push the half-Austrian heir.

It is very unlikely imho, Napoleon II would be too much of a Bonaparte and an Habsburg to bee accepted by anyone adn Eugène's throne would be in any case shaky enough that he would not offer open support to a scheme to topple France's legitimate ruler.

Its unlikely he sides with Pr/Ru as its likely he would be the first to be defeated by the Western allies and Austria. Even if they were to eventually lose in Saxony and Poland....not a given by any means, but they would be unlikely to give up their one real gain...and the Wettin's will need something in compensation.

No its better he remain unaligned, but guardian of the Western and Austrian interests in the peninsula or even allied. It strengthens the Austrian and Western position and makes it less likely they will want to have him usurped later ( at least if he actively allies) The Dutch and the Scandinavians can also likely be counted on to support the Westerner's and Austria.

To the point that war is likely averted and the historical compromise is implemented with minor revisions.

The thread on the Polish-Saxon crisis escalating makes me wonder what would Eugène do in such a situation. I agree that a Russian alliance would be unwise, but Eugène could ask for most of the Kingdom of Italy to be restored to him in exchange for his support of the Austrian cause. I think he can send 30-40 thousand men to Germany, although people were already very unhappy about conscription. However, now that I think about it, probably he would have to fight Murat, who was already feeling betrayed by the Austrians (he wanted most of the Papal States as prize for betraying Napoleon) and could side with the Russo-Prussians hoping to become ruler of the whole of Italy.

The "beauty" of this situation is that it is a win-win because even if the Russo-Prussian win, they have no interests in strenghtening the Austrian position in the peninsula or restoring the Papal States (as they aren't even Catholic powers).

I would say that in both situations Eugène could hope to keep his Kingdom and not only Lombardy, but very likely Modena and the Legazioni too (Veneto seems too much in most scenarios). He would also be in friendly terms with France and the UK, while Austria's stake in the Italian affairs will be sharply reduced. The future relations with Sardinia and Two Sicilies will be very interesting.

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

Sorry for bumping this, but I received a like today (thanks @thezerech btw) and it made me think again about this scenario: is anyone interested in the points I made in my last post? Could a saxon polish war (I know it is not much likely) improve the Beauharnais position in Italy?

Also, could there be a scenario where Eugène is in control of both the Kingdom of Italy and Naples? I was thinking in case Caroline Bonaparte died, say in 1812, leading to Murat eventually falling in disgrace (as Caroline often played a big part in defending him from Napoleon's ires) and being replaced by Eugene. Without Murat switching sides the Napoleonic posotion in Italy would be much stronger, could it be enough to let Eugene hang on to a large part of the peninsula?

Finally, is there a scenario where Eugene is allowed to keep Venice (and possibly Romagna) while losing Lombardy? I think it could be slightly more likely, as Milan had been Austrian since the war of spanish succession and an Habsburg possession for centuries, while the Austrians could only claim right of conquest over Venice.
It could be interesting to see how a more modern style of rule could improve the lot of rural, backward and clerical Veneto, maybe kickstarting industriap decelopement there much in advance and even avoiding most of the emigration towards South America...
Could it work as a counterbalance to Piedmont or would it be a quasi puppet of Austria like Tuscany?

 

[thezerech]

Sorry for bumping this, but I received a like today (thanks @thezerech btw) and it made me think again about this scenario: is anyone interested in the points I made in my last post? Could a saxon polish war (I know it is not much likely) improve the Beauharnais position in Italy?

Also, could there be a scenario where Eugène is in control of both the Kingdom of Italy and Naples? I was thinking in case Caroline Bonaparte died, say in 1812, leading to Murat eventually falling in disgrace (as Caroline often played a big part in defending him from Napoleon's ires) and being replaced by Eugene. Without Murat switching sides the Napoleonic posotion in Italy would be much stronger, could it be enough to let Eugene hang on to a large part of the peninsula?

Finally, is there a scenario where Eugene is allowed to keep Venice (and possibly Romagna) while losing Lombardy? I think it could be slightly more likely, as Milan had been Austrian since the war of spanish succession and an Habsburg possession for centuries, while the Austrians could only claim right of conquest over Venice.
It could be interesting to see how a more modern style of rule could improve the lot of rural, backward and clerical Veneto, maybe kickstarting industriap decelopement there much in advance and even avoiding most of the emigration towards South America...
Could it work as a counterbalance to Piedmont or would it be a quasi puppet of Austria like Tuscany?

You're Welcome.

If Eugene is in control of both Naples and Milan he might declare both united under an Italian Kingdom, with this substantial territory he'd be in control of almost all of mainland Italy, including Rome if IIRC. He'd be much more likely to hold off Austria if they invade Lombardy. Depending on how things go with Napoleon and the 100 days Eugene might be allowed to keep the original portion of the Kingdom. Perhaps Venice, Umbria, Parma, Rome and Modena, or other territories, with Naples and Lombardia going to the Austrians and Sicilians.

 

[Mikestone8]

Also, could there be a scenario where Eugène is in control of both the Kingdom of Italy and Naples?

How many troops would he have once the French had left, and how reliable are they likely to be?

 

[thezerech]

How many troops would he have once the French had left, and how reliable are they likely to be?

Assuming no 100 days, the French troops in Italy are likely to stay in Italy. They've served for decades under Bonaparte and the Revolution, most of them despised the Royalists. Many would resign their commissions in a Royalist French Army and join with Beauharnais. The French and Italian troops left in Italy performed quite well during the war itself. Neapolitan troops under Murat did not perform as well IIRC, however under Beauharnais that might change. If he has all of mainland Italy and de facto control of Savoy not to mention a large Napoleonic Army of Italy he could easily simply go to Vienna and plead his case, the Russians liked him, and I see no reason for the Prussians to want a stronger Austria. They'd be unwilling to join Austria if they launch an invasion of Italy.

I believe the Grande Armee had some ~100,000 Italians, though I don't know if that was before or after Russia, or how many of them are actually within Italy.

 

[Mikestone8]

Assuming no 100 days, the French troops in Italy are likely to stay in Italy. They've served for decades under Bonaparte and the Revolution, most of them despised the Royalists. Many would resign their commissions in a Royalist French Army and join with Beauharnais. .

Some officers might. But weren't the soldiers mostly conscripts? What interest would they have in staying in Italy (or indeed staying in uniform anywhere) now that the war was over?

 

[thezerech]

Some officers might. But weren't the soldiers mostly conscripts? What interest would they have in staying in Italy (or indeed staying in uniform anywhere) now that the war was over?

I was implying mostly officers, however I think many enlisted men would stay with the Italians and Beauharnais aswell. However, that doesn't change that the nucleus of the Italian Army was ~100,000* Italian troops plus the Neapolitan Army (OTL under Murat), no matter how many French stay, and we can assume at least a significant amount of the Imperial officers will, Eugene de Beauharnais will have an Army of great size, loyalty, training, elan, and experience at his back. If Eugene is in de facto control of all of mainland Italy including both Rome and Piedmont, with an Army 100,000+ strong of trained veterans of the Napoleonic Wars we can assume that he'd be in a very strong negotiating position. IOTL Murat was allowed to keep Naples before the 100 days. If Napoleon surrenders or dies and there are no 100 days I could imagine de Beauharnais receiving a rather large chunk of Italy, if not the entire mainland minus Lombardia ( if he loses to Austria ), Sicily, and Piedmont ( again, if he loses to Austria ).


*The Kingdom of Italy provided a total of ~200,000 troops during the Napoleonic Wars

 

[Mikestone8]

I was implying mostly officers, however I think many enlisted men would stay with the Italians and Beauharnais aswell. However, that doesn't change that the nucleus of the Italian Army was ~100,000* Italian troops plus the Neapolitan Army (OTL under Murat), no matter how many French stay, and we can assume at least a significant amount of the Imperial officers will, Eugene de Beauharnais will have an Army of great size, loyalty, training, elan, and experience at his back.

Really?

In 1814 Napoleon was so short of manpower that he was reduced to calling up 14-year-old boys. If there were really all these men of "loyalty, training, elan and experience", surely he'd have been using them to defend France, not leaving them to kick their heels in an irrelevant Italian backwater.

If Eugene is in de facto control of all of mainland Italy including both Rome and Piedmont, with an Army 100,000+ strong of trained veterans of the Napoleonic Wars we can assume that he'd be in a very strong negotiating position. IOTL Murat was allowed to keep Naples before the 100 days. If Napoleon surrenders or dies and there are no 100 days I could imagine de Beauharnais receiving a rather large chunk of Italy, if not the entire mainland minus Lombardia ( if he loses to Austria ), Sicily, and Piedmont ( again, if he loses to Austria ).

*The Kingdom of Italy provided a total of ~200,000 troops during the Napoleonic Wars

Murat was allowed to keep Naples because it was "off the beaten track" and the Allies didn't want to divert troops to eject Murat. Tha's a totally different thing from leaving Napoleon's stepson in control of an enormous kingdom. For Pete' sake, they wouldn't even let the King of Rome inherit Parma from his mother. No way are they going to let Eugene keep half of Northern Italy, esp when, with France eliminated, they have hundreds of thousands of troops available to polish him off.

 

[Yanez de Gomera]

I am not as optimist as to the strenght of the italian for es at Eugene's command:the country had been bled dry in the last years...
Indeed I don't think Eugene could ever put together 100.000 men in arms, even if he controlled the Kingdom of Naples. He had 30-40.000 men at the battle of Mincio in early 1814 (this number includes big French contingents) and Murat led about 30.000 men north in the same campaign, almost exclusively italians (of lower quality certainly, but just removing them from Eugene's southern flank improves his position massively.
The Kingdom of Italy's army was plagued by desertion and conscription had become very difficult to pull off, with insurgencies dpringing up in several rural areas. Liguria, Piedmont and Tuscany were very easily loberated by small British and Sicilian contingents, which received widespread popular support.
In short, I am sure that he could not hold Italy against the coalition or even against just Austria after Napoleon falls.

However...

If he had been leading 50.000+ soldiers, with his southern flank relatively safe, in January-April 1814 he could have defended most of Veneto against Bellegarde, who didn't have numerical superiority at the time.
At this point he can start negotiations from a relatively solid situation, maybe he could be left with something more than Naples, but certainly not most of the peninsula.

The internal political situation is difficult, especially in Milan, failure to very quickly coopt the ondependence/italian "party" will spell disaster and there is an openly austrophiliac party. Eugene has also the problem of being too honest and unambitious: he won't betray Napoleon before Fontainebleau and it will be difficult for him to opportunistically ride italian nationalism like Murat tried to do in 1815.

I think that, realistically, if Eugene is lucky and capable, he can come out of the Congress of Vienna with Veneto and Romagna (at most Marche too). An independent and relatively liberal state on the adriatic would be interesting and utterly change the history of the risorgimento, but Eugene and his successors have to be very careful, their position would be far from sure and their lands would need investments and able management to express their full economic potential.
Alternatively Eugene could maybe keep Lombardy+maybe Modena or Parma, if he plays well enough on the political/diplomatic and military tables.

 

[LordKalvan]

The internal political situation is difficult, especially in Milan, failure to very quickly coopt the ondependence/italian "party" will spell disaster and there is an openly austrophiliac party. Eugene has also the problem of being too honest and unambitious: he won't betray Napoleon before Fontainebleau and it will be difficult for him to opportunistically ride italian nationalism like Murat tried to do in 1815.

I think that, realistically, if Eugene is lucky and capable, he can come out of the Congress of Vienna with Veneto and Romagna (at most Marche too). An independent and relatively liberal state on the adriatic would be interesting and utterly change the history of the risorgimento, but Eugene and his successors have to be very careful, their position would be far from sure and their lands would need investments and able management to express their full economic potential.
Alternatively Eugene could maybe keep Lombardy+maybe Modena or Parma, if he plays well enough on the political/diplomatic and military tables.

It would take a lot of luck and skill, but I agree that Veneto (less the Quadrilateral fortresses), Romagna and March would be a nice state.
Remember anyway that Eugene is going to die relatively young, leaving an underage heir