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I've recently been reading Tonio Andrade's "Gunpowder Age" and in the book he argues that one of the reasons the Qing dynasty fell behind militarily was a lack of opponents. After defeating it's nearby neighbors, China was never severely threatened by any outside opponents.

So I wondered, could the Qing catch up technologically and tactically with European powers if someone kicked them hard enough before the Opium War? Or would other systemic factors prevent this from making a large difference (e.g. they would need better scientific knowledge to keep up in the long term).

Another important question would be who would make enough trouble for them? I don't think the Russians could supply a troublesome enough force in the East. I don't think the British have any good reason to antagonize them early. I'm not well aware of the Mughal Empire.
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