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In our timeline the little baltic german duchy of Courland lost its colony of Tobago in the carribean and what is today called Kunta Kinteh Island in Gambia in the late 17th century. As I thought about this in the past days I developed a little scenario but I don't know if it is realistic at all. So somehow the duke of Courland does not get captured by the Swedes and manages to hold onto the colonies. The Couronians eventually manage to colonise a bit more islands making the duke rich. The duke eventually buys properties in the HRE so when Courland gets annexed by a foreign power he moves to HRE (which is OTL) but since he has a lot of money through his islands he uses that to become a imperial prince similar to the princes of Liechtenstein. So there eventually is a little german principality somewhere which duke also rules some exotic places. Courland even tried to settle these colonies OTL so this would probably also be more succesful and those islands are german speaking.
To retain the islands Courland would probably need a protector which isn't Poland-Lithuania although they would remain the legal liege. I was thinking Great Britain since the dutch threw them out of the colonies and maybe the duke of Courland marries a Welfian girl and then George I ascends to the throne assuming this isn't butterflied.
So yeah my question is can Courland retain the colonies? Can they expand their colonial "empire"? Could Courland continue to exist as this baltic german state and if not could its ruler retain the colonies?