Could Bush Sr Have Won 1992 With a freezing Cold War?

From what I understand, Bush partly lost in 1992 because his foreign policy expertise were seen as less relevant. So what if the Cold War was still going on at the time of the election, and it was fairly hostile? Could he have won?
 
Going to Baghdad probably would have kept foreign policy in the news. The Cold War under Gorby would have been a non-issue. Now if Gorby had died early on and you had a Putin in charge who is making enough of a brouhaha somewhere like Central Europe to make it a foreign policy a core issue then maybe.
 
It's possible. On the one hand, if foreign policy is still a big issue for the '92 election, there's a good chance Clinton wouldn't have been the Democratic nominee, so that helps Bush Sr. out a lot. As another poster said, Kerrey could've been the nominee in this scenario.

On the other hand, Bush could still very easily lose. The economy was pretty bad in the early '90s, a freezing cold war doesn't change that, and Bush Sr. ran a horrible campaign in OTL, which I don't see that changing either unless Lee Atwater's cancer and death is somehow prevented.
 
Going to Baghdad probably would have kept foreign policy in the news. The Cold War under Gorby would have been a non-issue. Now if Gorby had died early on and you had a Putin in charge who is making enough of a brouhaha somewhere like Central Europe to make it a foreign policy a core issue then maybe.

Grigory Romanov would have been a good candidate, being a non-reformer and Gorby's biggest rival for the job. With no Gorby living (falls in front of a tractor) he'd be the only serious candidate, with only his being a Leningrader as a mark against him.

It's possible. On the one hand, if foreign policy is still a big issue for the '92 election, there's a good chance Clinton wouldn't have been the Democratic nominee, so that helps Bush Sr. out a lot. As another poster said, Kerrey could've been the nominee in this scenario.

On the other hand, Bush could still very easily lose. The economy was pretty bad in the early '90s, a freezing cold war doesn't change that, and Bush Sr. ran a horrible campaign in OTL, which I don't see that changing either unless Lee Atwater's cancer and death is somehow prevented.

Maybe Roger Ailes steps forward to replace Atwater's position in a major way in the 1992 campaign, rather than withdrawing from GOP electoral politics *dodges God's lightening bolt*:eek: in early 1992 as OTL?
 

Tovarich

Banned
Wasn't Daddy Bush pretty much screwed from the moment he did the "read my lips; no new taxes" just before bringing in a load of new taxes?
(Same thing happened with the newly re-elected Tory UK govt, when Lamont shoved VAT through the roof barely before the caretaker had finished sweeping up in the polling station).
 
Wasn't Daddy Bush pretty much screwed from the moment he did the "read my lips; no new taxes" just before bringing in a load of new taxes?
(Same thing happened with the newly re-elected Tory UK govt, when Lamont shoved VAT through the roof barely before the caretaker had finished sweeping up in the polling station).

That, and using Peggy Noonan's silly "Thousand Points of Light" speech.

Sad statement of American politics, as those tax increases were the most responsible thing he ever did domestically as POTUS.
 
Bush Sr. ran a horrible campaign in OTL, which I don't see that changing either unless Lee Atwater's cancer and death is somehow prevented.

Board colleague, you should know that Bush ran a thoroughly Atwaterite campaign, a recognisably modern GOP campaign. There's nothing in portraying Bubba as a dope-smoking, flag-burning, anti-Vietnam-on-foreign-soil hippy that the great man would not have approved of. Nor in branding Al Gore 'Mr Ozone'.

Now, rummaging through Bubba's passport files, Atwater might have even flinched at doing that. That's purebread Nixonism, that is.

While there is room for improvement in the sclerotic Bush campaign - but that was just a reflection of that White House, yo - it's not in an Atwaterite direction. Character assassination and expanding the opposition's negatives, that was the OTL strategy.
 
I agree with those who said on the surface at least, Bush's chance of reelection are slightly better, though on balance he still loses to whoever the Democrat is.

Having said that though, the Butterflies from a continued Cold War are probably pretty big-would GW1 still proceed as it did OTL? And if it either didn't happen or was seen as less of an initial success, that could counter any advantage Bush may be able to clame as a 'Foreign Policy Guru' anyway-it could even prompt Cuomo into the 1992 Dem race.
 
That, and using Peggy Noonan's silly "Thousand Points of Light" speech.

Sad statement of American politics, as those tax increases were the most responsible thing he ever did domestically as POTUS.

Bush's 43's most unpopular things he did as President were #1 the car company bailouts #2 the bank bailouts #3 the Iraq Surge.

Ironically what I would regard as the least responsible things he did as President were at the same time very popular at the time.
 
People perceived the Cold War as winding down, and wanted their taxes to follow suit. Bush was elected in large part on a promise that he would cut expenses.

Then he went and didn't keep his word.
 
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