Hi all,
Not sure if this has been discussed before, but what would be needed in order to make William Jennings Bryan the Democratic nominee in 1912? Would he need to have foregone the 1908 nomination (and the defeat at Taft's hands) to make this possible? If so, who could have been the Dem's nominee in 1908?
This is certainly the best way. Assuming that his replacement does no better than he himself did, then the Dems have lost twice with Bryan, but also twice without him, and the latter defeats have been heavier than the former. In such circs he has every chance.
However, he could possibly have won in 1912 even after losing 1908, had he swallowed his pride and gone into the Primaries. He had vastly more name recognition than any of his rivals. Basically, I feel he wanted to be "drafted" - he had come to think of the Democratic Party as "belonging" to him, and felt it a little beneath his dignity to just fight for the nomination like any common or garden aspirant. If so, pride went before a fall.
If he "passes" on 1908, the alternative is anybody's guess. William R Hearst might try for it, but his 1906 defeat for Governor of NY would tell against him. John W Kern, Bryan's OTL runnning-mate, might be chosen, or possibly Judson Harmon of Ohio. It probably makes little difference in November.
Assuming Bryan gets the Nomination in 1912, who's his Running Mate?
Since 1900 he had shown a preference for Midwestern running-mates, Stevenson of Illinois and Kern of Indiana, apparently regarding the Northeast as hopeless for him. So it could be Kern or Harmon, whichever of them hadn't got the 1908 Presidential spot. OTOH it could still be Marshall. He might also make courtesy offers to Wilson or Clark. Wilson probably wouldn't accept, but Clark might, as TTL they won't have become estranged at the Convention.
Finally, what does a Bryan presidency from 1913-1917 (or 1921) look like, in comparrison to Wilson in OTL? He'd probably be more isolationist, but what other differences are we looking at here?
He'd be dead set against entry into WW1, come what may. If worst came to worst, he'd probably advise American merchant ships to stay out of the German "barred zone" albeit under protest. He might also have resisted pressure to allow loans to belligerant powers, holding as he did that "Money is the worst of all contrabands because it commands all the rest".
Domestically - labor legislation etc - he's probably not much different from Wilson. I gather a lot of the initiative in that area came from Congress anyway.
The biggest possible change is to the Presidential term of office. In Feb 1913 the Senate, with the Republicans split and only one Democrat opposed, passed a Constitutional Amendment limiting the POTUS to a single six-year term. It would have easily passed in the heavily Democratic House, had Pres-Elect Wilson not intervened and persuaded the relevant Committee Chairman (Iirc it was A Mitchell Palmer) to prevent it coming to a vote. This was one of Bryan's pet reforms, so he would certainly not have done this, and indeed would have pushed for speedy passage. If it is passed and ratified, then he and his VP would serve until March 1919, and the next President would be elected in 1918, not 1916.
In 1916, is Hughes still the GOP nominee? and would Bryan be able to beat him, like Wilson did? Discuss.
Well, if the 1916 election is still held (see above) Hughes makes just as much sense as OTL. Basically the Reps need someone in the middle of their party, who didn't bolt in 1912, but can hold enough of the Progressive vote to be elected, and Hughes is about the best available.
Bryan probably wins by a similar electoral margin to Wilson, or slightly greater. Most of the "swing" states - IN, MN, OR and the crucial CA - are in the Midwest and West, where Bryan's isolationist views are popular, and his domestic programme is likely to be similar to Wilson's, so no votes lost there. Being weaker in the Northeast than Wilson, he will probably lose NH, but that's only four electoral votes, so he can afford to. WV went for Hughes by less than 1%, so he might pick that up as well, but I don't know enough about it to say whether Bryan would be more or less popular there than Wilson.