Could Blue Labour win in 2015?

What is the status of Blue Labour in the real world?

It graduated from ThinkTankWank to 'maybe part of the direction of the Labour Party' for about 18 months from 2011 to 2012. Then Maurice Glasman, its de facto head spokesperson, went too far in his criticisms of immigration and the whole thing got dropped as being too racist. It hasn't been a thing since.

Parts of it were key to 'One Nation Labour', but that appeared to resonate for a while and then suddenly didn't, lasting only a year or so and being dropped by the time of the 2014 European elections.

It's now completely dead.

And the status of Red Toryism, by the way.

Has never really been a thing. Not even sure it deserves a wiki article. (Which, on looking at it, it does have but is mainly about other countries where it exists as a trend - which is fair enough.)

Well if Cruddas wins in 2015 there wouldn't be a leadership election and Corbyn would remain on the backbenches. Maybe some left-wing revolt in the Labour party?

If Cruddas pulls it off (as is implied by this whole setup), the discontented masses that bolted to Corbyn in 2015 wouldn't get into that state. There is no left wing revolt around Corbyn if Cruddas is PM and is taking steps to nationalise the railways etc.

Hm, if not Defence, maybe some other role in the cabinet for Jarvis? I'm thinking Spellar as well lands a spot.

You don't tend to get put into the shadow cabinet in the same term that you were elected in a by election. Jarvis could well position himself within blue Labour quite nicely but it's hard to predict what he'd do or be offered.

How would Corbyn fit in with all of this

As above, he wouldn't. His election is one of the flukiest, most butterflyable events in modern British history. He would remain a backbencher making noises about how Blue Labour was headed in the right direction on economics but wrong on social policy.
 
Assuming it's all done effectively UKIP polls lower, Greens and Lib Dems poll higher with each taking a chunk of the middle-class Labour vote, much of which is based in London. SNP surge still happens as in OTL. Still lots of questions about Labour's economic competence + the SNP threat which allows the Tories to hold up.

Con - 35
Lab - 32
LDs - 11
UKIP - 9
Greens - 6

Which in seats would be somewhere in the region of

Con - 300
Lab - 250
LDs - 20
UKIP - 1
Greens - between 2 and 4
SNP - 55
 
Assuming it's all done effectively UKIP polls lower, Greens and Lib Dems poll higher with each taking a chunk of the middle-class Labour vote, much of which is based in London. SNP surge still happens as in OTL. Still lots of questions about Labour's economic competence + the SNP threat which allows the Tories to hold up.

Con - 35
Lab - 32
LDs - 11
UKIP - 9
Greens - 6

Which in seats would be somewhere in the region of

Con - 300
Lab - 250
LDs - 20
UKIP - 1
Greens - between 2 and 4
SNP - 55

A lot would depend on how Cruddas' leadership effects the other parties. One question I would ask is precisely how far to the right is Blue Labour on immigration? If it is more about better managing its effects rather than the approach UKIP takes which has undertones of racism(at least for middle class voters) that turns people off then I think a Labour party which is more economically to the left than OTL would shrink the Green vote rather than increase it. Of course, that might also mean less support for Labour from other areas, particularly if the Tories are still able to control the narrative around austerity to the extent they did in OTL.

Also, I would ask what would happen with UKIP. If Cruddas gets out ahead on immigration in the earlier part of the Parliament then it could butterfly a lot of UKIP's growth in popularity, and we might not see Carswell defect to them (maybe he'd go independent), and so 9% of the vote could mean no seats for them.
 
It's now completely dead.

All it takes for neoliberalism to triumph is for the opposition to drop the ball, which they have, again and again.

That said, it seems unfortunate that the social conservatism of these movements seem to focus on opposition to immigration, similar to how the most socially conservative thing about Trumpist populism is the same. I guess reverting to xenophobia if not outright racism is the easiest socially conservative issue to appeal to, especially with the death of public religion and all that.
 
Red Toryism is a thing in Canada where it refers to a school of thought among the conservatives.

It is also an insult used, primarily in Scotland by SNP voters, to attack the Labour Party as being basically Tories. Labour then attack the SNP as being Tartan Tories. The only thing this name-calling has done in real terms is to piss a lot of people off and give the Blue Tories a boost in the polls.

The lesson here is, if you're going to tell someone that they're "basically a Tory", don't be surprised if they then start to think "I'm basically a Tory".
 
It is also an insult used, primarily in Scotland by SNP voters, to attack the Labour Party as being basically Tories. Labour then attack the SNP as being Tartan Tories. The only thing this name-calling has done in real terms is to piss a lot of people off and give the Blue Tories a boost in the polls.

The lesson here is, if you're going to tell someone that they're "basically a Tory", don't be surprised if they then start to think "I'm basically a Tory".

The tartan Tory claim is pretty outdated at this point. It mostly refers to back when the SNP wasn't the main left wing party in Scotland. The fact everyone uses Tory as an insult speaks to exactly how hated the Scottish conservatives were. (Which was probably going to start turning around eventually, the conservatives are still a major national party so they can't stay dead in a region forever).
 
It is also an insult used, primarily in Scotland by SNP voters, to attack the Labour Party as being basically Tories. Labour then attack the SNP as being Tartan Tories. The only thing this name-calling has done in real terms is to piss a lot of people off and give the Blue Tories a boost in the polls.

The lesson here is, if you're going to tell someone that they're "basically a Tory", don't be surprised if they then start to think "I'm basically a Tory".

And now we're seeing the same with telling people they're basically fascists
 
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