Could Bill Richardson win in '08?

Zioneer

Banned
So I was playing President Forever (don't laugh, I learn a lot about the political scene from playing it; all the candidates I've never heard of before get me to read up about them), and I was playing as Bill Richardson, and I'm doing pretty well (though Clinton and Obama have a ridiculous advantage in the beginning).

But regardless, this Richardson guy looks like he had a solid set of credentials, experience, and the advantage of being a Hispanic, aiding identity politics.

So could Richardson have won the Democratic candidacy? If he did, would he win the general election? What sort of messaging and platform would have helped him the most in gaining the nomination/presidency?
 
I could see Richardson getting the VP slot if Clinton wins the primaries, but I can't imagine any situation where he wins the nomination himself. Nor would Obama pick him; two ethnic minorities on the same ticket is too risky.
 

Zioneer

Banned
I could see Richardson getting the VP slot if Clinton wins the primaries, but I can't imagine any situation where he wins the nomination himself. Nor would Obama pick him; two ethnic minorities on the same ticket is too risky.

Hmm... Good point. Identity politics and all that.

What about if Richardson became nationally known earlier (or of course, at all)? If started making moves towards the presidency earlier? Could he fill the "ethnic minority" political spot that Obama did in OTL?
 
Nor would Obama pick him; two ethnic minorities on the same ticket is too risky.

I doubt that. Richardson was on the short-list and was vetted for VP. One could say picking Biden was "too risky" because neither figure had executive experience (Governorship). Richardson is a Governor of a swing state, and mathematically looks like a better VP choice than Biden was.

The double-ethnicity wouldn't play much of a factor at all, other than spawning a few late-night TV jokes. People who don't plan to vote for Obama on the basis of his race won't be swayed by a Caucasian VP, nor would people on the fence be dismayed by an Hispanic VP. It'll probably only help, by picking up some of the more conservative Hispanic voters.

The bottom-line is, Obama would still win if he chooses anyone short of Bill Ayers. An Obama-Richardson ticket, tying together two candidates of similar backgrounds, is pretty much the same as the Bush-Cheney ticket or the Clinton-Gore ticket.
 

Zioneer

Banned
I doubt that. Richardson was on the short-list and was vetted for VP. One could say picking Biden was "too risky" because neither figure had executive experience (Governorship). Richardson is a Governor of a swing state, and mathematically looks like a better VP choice than Biden was.

The double-ethnicity wouldn't play much of a factor at all, other than spawning a few late-night TV jokes. People who don't plan to vote for Obama on the basis of his race won't be swayed by a Caucasian VP, nor would people on the fence be dismayed by an Hispanic VP. It'll probably only help, by picking up some of the more conservative Hispanic voters.

The bottom-line is, Obama would still win if he chooses anyone short of Bill Ayers. An Obama-Richardson ticket, tying together two candidates of similar backgrounds, is pretty much the same as the Bush-Cheney ticket or the Clinton-Gore ticket.

So, alright, Richardson becomes VP. What then? Does Richardson becoming a VP change anything?
 
Not in 08. But in 04 he could of, if he'd run for the gubernatorial election of Mexico in 1998(rather then 2002 like OTL) instead of receiving the secretary of energy position... would have been challenging given the Republican incumbent won by 55% OTL, but Richardson might have done better(or we could just butterfly him dying off somehow).

This means Richarson avoids the Wen Ho Lee scandal and has 6 years gubernatorial experience under his belt in 2004, when his toughest competiton would be Senator Kerry. Richardson shares Kerry's foreign policy gravitas which was Kerry's only real advantage, and unlike Kerry has executive experience, an ethnic heritage and a moderate image politically. He's also more charismatic(emphasis on "more", he's not exactly charismatic himself). So I can't see him not winning the nomination in 2004.

In that case we probably have a Richardson/Edwards or Richardson/Gephardt ticket. He should be a stronger candidate then Kerry and I'd say 50/50 odds of beating Bush, unless being Hispanic hurts him more then I think it would/he has a scandal/he's more susceptible to Nader's second candidacy then Kerry was.
 
And also one of the most blatantly corrupt, cronyist, good ol' boy candidates in living memory. Sorta like Rick Perry on 'roids.

If you have any affection for the Democratic Party you should want Our Bill far, far away from the candidacy.

So I was playing President Forever (don't laugh, I learn a lot about the political scene from playing it; all the candidates I've never heard of before get me to read up about them), and I was playing as Bill Richardson, and I'm doing pretty well (though Clinton and Obama have a ridiculous advantage in the beginning).

But regardless, this Richardson guy looks like he had a solid set of credentials, experience, and the advantage of being a Hispanic, aiding identity politics.

So could Richardson have won the Democratic candidacy? If he did, would he win the general election? What sort of messaging and platform would have helped him the most in gaining the nomination/presidency?
 
Coincidentally, I have an idea for a TL in which he becomes president in 2008, with Obama as his VP. It would likely be considered semi-ASB as the PoD has nothing to do with politics and only sets in motion a small number of societal changes leading to his nomination.
 
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