If we assume that if the Austro-Hungarian Empire wasn't split apart at the end of WW1, whether that's because they win, or if they aren't split up by the Treaty of Trianon, was there anything they could've done to survive past WW1?
Could Austria-Hungary have survived Post-ww1?
- Thread starter Charles de Baulle
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- austria hungary collapse ww1
Depend, even in case of victory is difficult
The best case scenario is a victory at most in 1916, after that things will become more difficult to manage in the post war with the bill of all the blood and treasure payed for the meager result will need to be payed plus Germany influence on the Empire will become a little too much to deny.
I know i know here come the comment like: she had win the war so is stronger, minority had fought to the end, her problems pre war were non existent or greatly amp up by the propaganda etc. etc.
Sorry but this is not a war, this is the biggest massacre know to man till that moment and at the end of the day there is little that the Empire can show for all the trouble and why? Because nothing will be enough to justify the loss and at most A-H can create a series of puppet not big direct annexation and puppet are not that showy...plus by 1917 it's clear who is the senior patner of the alliance. Once the bullet stop, well that's the moment when the problem need to be adressed as during the conflict the combat keep things on hold as OTL winners can declare and once the war is ended all the minority will want the political debt being payed up with reform and here will start the political and phisical battle as i doubt that what will be considered a notable and enormous concession in 1914 will be acceptable in 1918 and i don't take in consideration the spill over of the russian civil war
Post Entente victory, well you need not only a reason for the winners to keep A-H together in some way...and frankly this is the easy part but you also need Wilson to cast aside his points.
Again a quicker victory by the entente at least before the american soldiers come in Europe will greatly help.
Honestly i see A-H in some way survive only if the sixstus affair is a success and the Empire exit the war with some loss and some win but having payed a much meager price than OTL
The best case scenario is a victory at most in 1916, after that things will become more difficult to manage in the post war with the bill of all the blood and treasure payed for the meager result will need to be payed plus Germany influence on the Empire will become a little too much to deny.
I know i know here come the comment like: she had win the war so is stronger, minority had fought to the end, her problems pre war were non existent or greatly amp up by the propaganda etc. etc.
Sorry but this is not a war, this is the biggest massacre know to man till that moment and at the end of the day there is little that the Empire can show for all the trouble and why? Because nothing will be enough to justify the loss and at most A-H can create a series of puppet not big direct annexation and puppet are not that showy...plus by 1917 it's clear who is the senior patner of the alliance. Once the bullet stop, well that's the moment when the problem need to be adressed as during the conflict the combat keep things on hold as OTL winners can declare and once the war is ended all the minority will want the political debt being payed up with reform and here will start the political and phisical battle as i doubt that what will be considered a notable and enormous concession in 1914 will be acceptable in 1918 and i don't take in consideration the spill over of the russian civil war
Post Entente victory, well you need not only a reason for the winners to keep A-H together in some way...and frankly this is the easy part but you also need Wilson to cast aside his points.
Again a quicker victory by the entente at least before the american soldiers come in Europe will greatly help.
Honestly i see A-H in some way survive only if the sixstus affair is a success and the Empire exit the war with some loss and some win but having payed a much meager price than OTL
With victory of course, the wolves who wanted to dismeber it(italians, romanians, serbians and other ans) would be subdue/neutralized.
well, obviously that would remove the external issue, but A-H had massive internal struggles before and during the war, so even if they didn't have to deal with those countries, could they have made it?
those are a myth, it took a lot of external pressure, now the post war ausgleich would be interesting
They were such a myth that there were more or less the reason to start a war, A-H had his own serious problem that needed to be resolved everyone knows it both in Budapest and Wien the problem was how to resolve, it's not that plan like the United States of Austria or adding a third crown had come out because well people were bored and want a little change in their life.
A solution was possible? Well before 1914 the answer is yes, painfully, needed a lot of changes, probable a lot of violence and a lot of people not very happy of the outcome but is doable; 1916? Still doable only the pain is a lot more and people will want to have a lot more saying in how things are managed, post 1917? Some minor miracle and violence both political and ethnic is unavoidable as the bill of the war will be added to all that.
Saying that if she win the war all the big problem will disappear and everyone will be an happy family with the occasional bumb is a little.....optimistical
It is possible. Minorities were mostly really loyal to the Habsburgs and government very close of end. Biggest issue was Hungary which would had opposed any needed reforms. What minorities wanted was more autonomy not outright independence. So even if Germany manage to launch succesful Spring Offensive and crush France and enforce Britain to negotiation table, A-H could had been saved altough that would had been more difficult at this late. Perhaps could had survived even if Entente would had won the war but that would required early victory and Entente not requiring dissolution of the empire.
If the CP win the war it would survive, some reforms are needed but Karl I was willing to make concessions. If the Entente wins, you need a miracle.