https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...urn-out-if-it-actually-happened.415063/page-2
Courtesy of a suggestion by Obsessednuker to start a separate thread about this particular POD in the above thread (please consult to see arguments about this and plenty of maps):
Its generally been taken as an article of faith all around that attacking Moscow in August was not feasible for either logistical reasons or the danger of the Soviet armies in Ukraine to the flank of AG-Center. During the course of the discussion Stolif's argument came up, as did Stahel and David Glantz's books, plus of course van Creveld's essay on the logistics of Barbarossa. Looking into all of the above, it doesn't actually seem impossible had the decision been made early enough. Certainly German logistics were not particularly strong as of August, but the Smolensk rail line had been connected and it had been taking trains since the end of July. Guderian had the supplies to fight the Kiev battles, while AG-Center had the strength to engage in high intensity combat with the Soviet Western Front during August-September, while 3rd Panzer Group did break up and send 1 corps to destroy the Soviet 22nd army on it's flank and the other to attack Leningrad with AG-North.
Alternatively had Leningrad and Kiev not been made priorities once the Smolensk pocket and Roslavl pockets and been dealt with German mobile forces in AG-Center could have sat still for a week or two to recover before starting an offensive in mid/late-August. In the meantime 4th Panzer Group, rather than attacking the Luga line, could instead have turned East to attack the Soviet forces engaged in Staraya Russa offensive with the full support of the 1st Air Fleet, as 18th and 16th armies of AG-North defend the Luga river line. 4th Panzer Group could then clean up the flank of AG-North, going after the Soviet 22nd army at Veliyki Luki once dispatching the Soviet 34th and 27th armies at Staraya Russa, plus then continuing to operate to cover the seam of the two Army Groups all while on the rail network/supply lines of AG-North, leaving AG-Center to just support their same forces as of July. Looking at the situation map for August 8th below, it is possible for the intact 2nd and 3rd Panzer Groups to launch the Vyazma Pincer when they are rested and read just as the Soviets are engaged in their August counteroffensives east of Smolensk, which would hit forces weaker than they would be in October and not able to resist well.
With 4th Panzer Group covering the northern flank against Soviet forces left outside the pocket, while 2nd army in the south cover the Ukraine-Kiev threat, it seems very possible to have AG-Center crush Western Front in August-early September and then be able to move East, but this time minus Soviet reserves being available or ready to stop them. 2nd Air Fleet would be intact to support them, while the Soviets in Ukraine aren't really in a position to attack hard on the flank of AG-Center due to their own AG-South pressing on them, while if Hitler sends 2nd and 5th Panzer divisions to bolster 2nd Army in it's flank guard mission (the strategic panzer reserve as of August-September), they'd stiffen it to the point that it was secure against what the Soviets had in August-September-October to throw at it. With Western Front basically crushed by early September there really is nothing left but the recently formed Reserve Front, with it's highly limited combat abilities, to stop the Germans. Thoughts?
