I suppose I take the side of "WW2 Butterflied" on this issue. I am unsure of how Trotsky would try to steer the Communist Party, but I doubt Trotsky will play so nicely with Germany OTL as Stalin did.
There will be no purge of the Red Army, and in all likelihood Trotsky will not push industrialization quite as hard as Stalin; on the positives Trotsky probably isn't going to rely on excessive terror and secret police as heavily as Stalin, either.
Trotsky presiding over the Soviet Union in 1929 would be huge; I think we'd see some attempt to stage communist revolutions as a result--France and Germany would both be somewhat vulnerable to some kind of move--and while the risks are high and the chance of success low, any kind of hard-left clique emerging and allying with the Soviet Union is going to rewrite the balance of power in Europe.
More likely, Trotsky making this kind of hard move and failing will hurt the political left and see a greater trend towards Fascism...
In any case, by 1938 questions emerge over whether Hitler would even be in charge or if the Soviets have managed to ally with another country in Europe; or if the reverse situation applies for Germany. WW2, and Operation Barbarossa will have been transformed at least slightly through these alterations. One thing I suspect as a given--Trotsky will not be entirely surprised by Germany's attack, and so the Soviets are likely to fight 1941 in a better fashion than OTL. What might sink the Soviets, however, is not developing the Trans-Uralian area, as Stalin did forcibly; if increasing the Soviet Industrial Base happens instead in the Moscow area and further westward the Economics could zag badly against them.
If it somehow came to pass anyway...
I would predict the Soviets to win, but they have less ground to give--but they are lead more competently. Unlike OTL, losing Moscow MIGHT cause this Soviet Union to lose the war--but this probably will not happen when OTL's Major Encirclements are replaced with large-scale withdrawals of troops. Big questions include whether ITTL's Allies will support Lend Lease if Trotsky has done nasty things by 1940/41 and the Economic Strength of ITTL's Soviet Union, as well as its geographical layout.
There will be no purge of the Red Army, and in all likelihood Trotsky will not push industrialization quite as hard as Stalin; on the positives Trotsky probably isn't going to rely on excessive terror and secret police as heavily as Stalin, either.
Trotsky presiding over the Soviet Union in 1929 would be huge; I think we'd see some attempt to stage communist revolutions as a result--France and Germany would both be somewhat vulnerable to some kind of move--and while the risks are high and the chance of success low, any kind of hard-left clique emerging and allying with the Soviet Union is going to rewrite the balance of power in Europe.
More likely, Trotsky making this kind of hard move and failing will hurt the political left and see a greater trend towards Fascism...
In any case, by 1938 questions emerge over whether Hitler would even be in charge or if the Soviets have managed to ally with another country in Europe; or if the reverse situation applies for Germany. WW2, and Operation Barbarossa will have been transformed at least slightly through these alterations. One thing I suspect as a given--Trotsky will not be entirely surprised by Germany's attack, and so the Soviets are likely to fight 1941 in a better fashion than OTL. What might sink the Soviets, however, is not developing the Trans-Uralian area, as Stalin did forcibly; if increasing the Soviet Industrial Base happens instead in the Moscow area and further westward the Economics could zag badly against them.
If it somehow came to pass anyway...
I would predict the Soviets to win, but they have less ground to give--but they are lead more competently. Unlike OTL, losing Moscow MIGHT cause this Soviet Union to lose the war--but this probably will not happen when OTL's Major Encirclements are replaced with large-scale withdrawals of troops. Big questions include whether ITTL's Allies will support Lend Lease if Trotsky has done nasty things by 1940/41 and the Economic Strength of ITTL's Soviet Union, as well as its geographical layout.