Could a Rhodesian-style UDI have happened in...

(1) Algeria

(2) Angola

(3) Cochinchina (French colonial population concentrates in the south and refuses Vietnamese rule, maybe co-opts the local Khmers and Chinese.)

(4) Kenya

(5) Mozambique

(6) Northern Ireland (Unionists unironically declare an independent Ulster to prevent a British deal with Dublin or the IRA.)

(7) South-West Africa (Whites and Coloureds take over parts of the country when the South Africans withdraw.)
 
The last Stormont Government did consider doing a Rhodesia in it's final days but Faulkner and most of his Cabinet knew it was implausible, it's one thing if you're Rhodesia thousands of miles from the mother country and with no easy invasion routes but it's a different matter if you're just 50 miles off Scotland and your economy is totally dependent on Britain.

Perhaps if Bill Craig or some other hardliner had been PM then he would have been up for it but I doubt there would have been much public support. There has always been a small Ulster Independence Movement which Paisley flirted with at several points but never espoused. You also have some 35-40% of the population deeply hostile and would probably have revolted had Stormont attempted to emulate Ian Smith.

For this to happen you need Britain to be preparing to do an Aden and abandon NI to it's fate. That would have needed the Troubles to have been much worse and for a very different British Government. However the UDI happens it's going to result in a full scale Bosnian style civil war with ethnic cleansing and widespread attrocities. If Britain stays out of it then eventually the Northern Nationalists, aided by the Irish Government are eventually going to prevail but it would be long and bloody.
 
(1) Algeria

(2) Angola

(3) Cochinchina (French colonial population concentrates in the south and refuses Vietnamese rule, maybe co-opts the local Khmers and Chinese.)

(4) Kenya

(5) Mozambique

(6) Northern Ireland (Unionists unironically declare an independent Ulster to prevent a British deal with Dublin or the IRA.)

(7) South-West Africa (Whites and Coloureds take over parts of the country when the South Africans withdraw.)

(1) Algeria: Yes, they came damn close, the Military lunched a coup in 1958 for god sake so yeah

(2) Angola: maybe, the Portuguese were in control of 98% of Angola in 1975, their Independence had far more to do with what was going on with Portugal than anything on the ground

(3) Cochinchina: I think not, not enough of them or a political frame work to take over

(4) Kenya: not enough white population in OTL....

(5) Mozambique: see Angola

(6) Northern Ireland: hell yes, at lest if the Brits try to put them in a united Ireland 1890-1920ish, later during the Troubles is a hard sell, maybe if Labour wins in 1970 and pushes more pro-Irish policies, which keep the Nationalists happy and leads to a Unionist freak out.

(7) South-West Africa: no every one had given up on Minority rule by than.
 
(6) is the most likely and plausible given the protestants form a majority.

It was in fact the goal of some extreme paramilitaries on the loyalist side - e.g. reference to this in the Stiff Little Fingers classic song, Wasted Life - "an independent state with laws"

To achieve it, you need the UK to piss off enough of the protestants to a high degree, and probably some sort of charismatic protestant extremist leader.

To have the British be prepared to do it, you need to have the IRA piss them off enough, and lack of British self-confidence (worse version of 70s?)

Maybe a mega-successful IRA inspires the UK to cut its losses and hand-over the province?
 
If Britain stays out of it then eventually the Northern Nationalists, aided by the Irish Government are eventually going to prevail but it would be long and bloody.

The Unionists have a demographic edge and would find aid elsewhere (South Africa, Rhodesia, the US far right, dissatisfied members of the British government, Scottish anti-Catholics). The Republic has limited ability to help the Nationalists and would be in constant fear that they would use whatever aid they get to overthrow it. I expect a stalemate.
 
To achieve it, you need the UK to piss off enough of the protestants to a high degree,and probably some sort of charismatic protestant extremist leader.

Check! :D

paisley1969.gif
 
The Unionists have a demographic edge and would find aid elsewhere (South Africa, Rhodesia, the US far right, dissatisfied members of the British government, Scottish anti-Catholics). The Republic has limited ability to help the Nationalists and would be in constant fear that they would use whatever aid they get to overthrow it. I expect a stalemate.

agreed when the Troubles started 2/3s of the people in Northern Ireland were Unionists, 1/3 Catholic
 
And I forgot dissatisfied members of the British military. Most of the UDR will go over to the new Ulster state.

if not leading it, the UDR was made up of the old B Specials, a legalized protestant paramilitary, the UDR was better controlled by the British regulars, but they weren't much different.
 
The Unionists have a demographic edge and would find aid elsewhere (South Africa, Rhodesia, the US far right, dissatisfied members of the British government, Scottish anti-Catholics). The Republic has limited ability to help the Nationalists and would be in constant fear that they would use whatever aid they get to overthrow it. I expect a stalemate.

They're still going to lose much of NI's land area with only Antrim, North Down, East County Derry and North Armagh certain to be held, they are also likely to be a pariah state, especially if they try and court support from South Africa and Rhodesia neither of which can help them directly. If Britain regards them as insurrectionists then it could impose a blockade and stop any arms supplies getting in. Sanctions are going to bite hard, Rhodesia had large deposits of chromium and other minerals to keep the money rolling in, NI hasn't got anything. Yes in the early 70's it still had quite an industrialised economy but the big firms like Harland and Wolf and Shorts are highly dependent on British defence contracts, if they go then they close down, many other major employers are local branches of U.K. firms.

I've no doubt that a UDI Ulster could have survived for some years if the population were determined to make it, but it would have much lower living standards than IOTL. This would have led eventually to a lot of people emigrating as happened in Rhodesia especially if there's a guerilla war going on.
 
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(1) Algeria

(2) Angola

(3) Cochinchina (French colonial population concentrates in the south and refuses Vietnamese rule, maybe co-opts the local Khmers and Chinese.)

(4) Kenya

(5) Mozambique

(6) Northern Ireland (Unionists unironically declare an independent Ulster to prevent a British deal with Dublin or the IRA.)

(7) South-West Africa (Whites and Coloureds take over parts of the country when the South Africans withdraw.)
(1) Algeria:There's a possibility that the Colons radicalise and declare independence.

(2) Angola:Only in an extreme case. The white population was tied to Portugal.

(3) Cochinchina:A bit unlikely (perhaps if the POD allows for more European presence that could happen).

(4) Kenya: It would require many more White Africans.

(5) Mozambique: It's possible. There were rumors about plans for it in OTL.

(6) Northern Ireland: I think the Unionists value much the United Kingdom and might not do it.

(7) South-West Africa:perhaps with enough South African support.
 
I'm working on a Cochinchina ATL now, but it'd only go Rhodesia if the French tried to hand it over to the Nguyen monarchy.

Hmm...that might be something for later in the TL, when I actually get that far. I haven't even hit the 20th Centnury yet.
 
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