When Yuan Shikai proclaimed himself to be a new Emperor of China in late December, 1915, he more or less shot himself in the foot. His closest supporters in the Beiyang Army abandoned him, which contributed to the commencement of the Warlord Era.
How would China have progressed had Yuan Shikai remained a military strongman (and perhaps live a bit longer than he did OTL)? Could the warlord era be averted?