Could a less-stupid Yuan Shikai be good for China?

(Inspired a bit by this https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=177089 )

When Yuan Shikai proclaimed himself to be a new Emperor of China in late December, 1915, he more or less shot himself in the foot. His closest supporters in the Beiyang Army abandoned him, which contributed to the commencement of the Warlord Era.

How would China have progressed had Yuan Shikai remained a military strongman (and perhaps live a bit longer than he did OTL)? Could the warlord era be averted?
 
The book I was reading this afternoon says that he was under pressure by his family to proclaim himself Emperor. Other than that and good old "biting off more than he could chew" I can't see any other reason why he did it.

The thing about his claim to the throne is that it happened very shortly before he died- and he had been sick for a long time and knew he didn't have much time left. If we could have him live a few years longer it would probably go a long way to solidifying the Beiyang clique as a single unit, similar to what Chiang Kai-shek would later do with the KMT. However it would require that YSK have a competent successor and enact policies to strengthen his clique's unison. I'm not sure how he could have done this without a good deal of brutality - after all the generals under his command were pretty much also warlords trying to do their own thing and if they thought they could they would also do such things as ignore his orders, try to usurp him or whatever. He did an okay job it seems of securing loyalty from his subordinates, but it was personal and not institutional loyalty, which was indeed a problem all over China at the time and still sort of is. Yuan's successor would have to build up this loyalty all over again, and there might not be enough time for that to happen before the post-YKS Beiyang clique splits up like it did IOTL.
 
Could Duan Qirui be a viable successor?

I don't know how good he was at bossing people around. IOTL he was head of the Anhui clique and had been prime minister but didn't seem to command enough authority, as evidenced by how the Beiyang group just split up. Perhaps a few extra years of Yuan Shikai staying alive would have given the Beijing government more strength and Duan could've have become a dictator of sorts. But for how long depends on how good of a manipulator he is.
 
How about Li Yuanhong?

In any event, who would be the most likely to keep China united, democratically or autocratically?
 
A democratic China is probably impossible before 1950 and even that would take a lot of luck and plausibility-bending.

Li Yuanhong was kind of a tool rather than a politician who actually did things according to his own agenda. He only became President a couple times because the northern warlords let him, in order to appease the southern KMT faction.

Duan Qirui could work.

You could have it like this: Yuan Shikai recovers from his illness (or at least enough so that he doesn't die in 1916), and doesn't feel the need to make a claim to the throne. Thereafter he continues to build up his hegemony over northern China, and his generals remain loyal to him. Zhang Zuolin never becomes a major figure in Fengtian, with some Beiyang general sent to govern the area instead. This gives the Beiyang clique better institutional cohesion, YSK has more dictatorial power, and they also get the entire Northeast and its resources. If we say that YSK gets four more years to live, he dies in 1920 by which time the Beiyang clique can field a large force to go on a "southern expedition" and clean up the warlords there. Since the Beiyang clique has been strengthened by a few years of YSK's rule, whatever successor he picks (let's say it's Duan) will also find it easier to work with more governmental/legal authority rather than purely on connections. Assuming the southern warlords and KMT are still in disarray much as they were in OTL, a unified Beiyang could mop them up rather simply.
 
Zombie Sun Zhongshan risen from the grave ought to do the trick. :)

I think it's pretty hard to find a guy who has universal north-south appeal, knew what he was doing (or at least took the advice of people who knew what he should be doing), and wouldn't let himself become a puppet for some militarist generalissimo or foreign backers. I think there are a lot of guys (Wellington Koo in particular) from the south and central coastal provinces who could, on merit of their skill in diplomatic/financial/political matters, run China exceptionally well in theory, but who would end up splintering the country in practice due to their inability to court the support of the northern warlords.
 
That's why you need a guy who can do two things: a) command an army well and b) be a competent, ruthless administrator who can truly create a governmental system (as opposed to relationship-based politics) to replace the Qing monarchy. IOTL the KMT failed to do this and only Mao ended up being able to achieve it. The quote "The Party must control the gun" comes to mind. The warlords could be seen as loose guns in the absence of a strong legal/political structure.

Basically, China has to become fascist or Communist in order to switch gears from the Qing system and perhaps morph into a democracy later if that's the goal.
 
That's why you need a guy who can do two things: a) command an army well and b) be a competent, ruthless administrator who can truly create a governmental system (as opposed to relationship-based politics) to replace the Qing monarchy. IOTL the KMT failed to do this and only Mao ended up being able to achieve it. The quote "The Party must control the gun" comes to mind. The warlords could be seen as loose guns in the absence of a strong legal/political structure.

Basically, China has to become fascist or Communist in order to switch gears from the Qing system and perhaps morph into a democracy later if that's the goal.

Thats fortunate for the little timeline rattling around in my head. Not that many eligible strongmen, though, eh?

From memory didn't Hendryk's superlative Superpower Empire have Yuan Shikai surviving as one of its PODs'?

It was actually Yuan Shikai dying early, in 1912 or 1913.
 
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