Bavaria had a major liberal movement in the late 1700s in OTL. If Austria had annexed Bavaria in previous decades, could this give it a stronger liberal Germanic core?
Interesting. As others have pointed out my Joseph II PoD doesn't exactly work. Maybe A Hapsburg takeover of Bavaria would be a better starting point. I'd suppose the War of Bavarian Sucession would likely be the best place to start? Or maybe earlier.
Wikipedia tells me that in 1785, Joseph II offered to swap Bavaria with Charles Theodore von Wittelsbach for the Austrian Netherlands. Charles Theodore didn’t take the deal IOTL, but if he had, that provides a way to get Bavaria into Austria without personal union.Except you'd only get a personal union between Bavaria and Austria, not a combination of the two entities. Can you get it so revolutions break out in both regions simultaneously under factions who would unite into one country? It's certainly possible, but you run the very real risk of Austria spinning off rather than a single South Germany. Though, Absolutist reforms trying to dissolve Bavaria under a common crown and exploit the middle class in the region for Vienna's benefit could be a good impetus for Republican agitation
Pro-Revolutionary forces inside Hungary and local magnates trying to create independent realms as suggested earlier, plus pressure from the Russians and Ottomans?What's preventing the Emperor from just marching on Vienna with a Hungarian Army besides a little bit of humiliation?
Except you'd only get a personal union between Bavaria and Austria, not a combination of the two entities. Can you get it so revolutions break out in both regions simultaneously under factions who would unite into one country? It's certainly possible, but you run the very real risk of Austria spinning off rather than a single South Germany. Though, Absolutist reforms trying to dissolve Bavaria under a common crown and exploit the middle class in the region for Vienna's benefit could be a good impetus for Republican agitation
I think the difference between personal union and single state would matter about as much to German nationalist revolutionaries as it did to Oliver Cromwell.
The main issue I'm having is just how exactly an Austrian Revolution would get off the ground. With Joseph II enacting liberal reforms throughout his reign, I'm not sure where the desire for Republican revolution would come from. Could it somehow spread from Bavaria? Is there any way to change Joseph II's reign into a more reactionary absolutist one? Maybe a Francis I surviving into the 1790s could help.
Pro-Revolutionary forces inside Hungary and local magnates trying to create independent realms as suggested earlier, plus pressure from the Russians and Ottomans?
Why would the Russians want to weaken Austria? Inversely, why would the Ottomans want to disrupt the status quo?
... because Austria has just gone batshit insane and the "status quo" has already been disrupted. Or did you forget that the Revolution just happened in Vienna?
Post-war and a Hapsburg restoration, the Great Powers may very well negotiate Russia down to Austria's claims in Poland post-1st partition and the breakaway states to accept the restored regime (albeit with greater local autonomy for the nobility and guarantees of their ancient privileges and borders)
Austria and Russia are allies. Moscow would act quickly - in concert with other European powers - to restore the scion of the Habsburgs to Vienna as soon as possible, maybe picking up a little Poland (but probably not Galicia). You have some kind of strange idea that Russia would move quickly and decisively to, if possible, dismember their own ally. That wouldn't be in their interests, and also wouldn't be in the MO of the time period
IMO your best bet is not Joseph II of OTL. Lets either change Joseph II to a much more patient end tactful person or maybe get Leopold II (for this kill Joseph II earlier, maybe before he takes the throne)early. The important point is to have a very successful enlightened absolutist reformer of Austria while avoiding to anger too much of the empires traditional leadership - so at the death of this ruler we have a successfull, content and a pretty liberal Austria. Than got a Francis I like person who tries to roll back the popular reforms. And than you can get a liberal revolution in Austria.