Could a defeat against Taiwan trigger the fall of communist China?

[Barry Bull]

Indeed not anymore. if you click the first link, you will find that the numbers were 14.9% to 51.2% by the last elections (1:3.4) Pro-independence had consistently a comfortable lead by 20% until the recent months after the municipal elections this fall.

TPOF has a very strong DPP bias, hence my caveats at the onset. It's probably my cynical mindset, but I tend to think the support for Taiwan independence is effectively a performance score card on the sitting government: They were low under the first term of President Ma when the first ECFA was concluded. They were high again when people decided it was time to oust KMT and brought in the greens again.

A bit like Canada's relationship with NAFTA, in extremis.

So the TPOF is about as useful as the Rasmussen (I think that's the GOP leaning pollsters) in America. In short, not very.

According to Taiwan sources, the tying of LGBT issues referendum to the municipal elections triggered the mobilisation of many religious groups (mostly traditional folk religion and some protestant groups) that were relatively pro-DPP beforehand to urge their members to vote against DPP this election. Taiwan remains a quite conservative place outside major cities, esp. when population in rural areas tends to be older and more traditional.

 

[Pelranius]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Gorges_Dam#National_security

@BlondieBC

Not to mention that I don't think the ROCAF has enough munitions to even credibly threaten the Three Gorges Dam.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

The Japanese had a functional welfare system way before the 90s.

Classifying the Japanese welfare society as a proper welfare state is... generous to say the least. The Japanese system was predicated on most of the burden falling on the employers and family members of those in need of aid, with the state only covering the rare cases where those options weren't available. In the 90s, with many companies ceasing to exist and entire families rendered jobless, such cases ceased to be rare and the government had to massively restructure its programs and legislation accordingly.

 

[Barry Bull]

Not to mention that I don't think the ROCAF has enough munitions to even credibly threaten the Three Gorges Dam.

Even US would probably have to use nuclear penetrator to ensure successful destruction of the dam. Gravity dam is basically a big pile of steel and concrete after all.

 

[CalBear]

The time frame is the last 20 years or so

In that case, no. There isn't a possibility that the invasion would fail, there is a certainty that it would. The PLAN lacks the ability to transport sufficient personnel. Even today the PLAN would be hard pressed to lift two armored brigades, much less a force large enough to invade a country of 23 million.

That is why it has never been attempted.

The CCP is also far to well entrenched to be overthrown.

 

[Gancio The Ranter]

In that case, no. There isn't a possibility that the invasion would fail, there is a certainty that it would. The PLAN lacks the ability to transport sufficient personnel. Even today the PLAN would be hard pressed to lift two armored brigades, much less a force large enough to invade a country of 23 million.

That is why it has never been attempted.

The CCP is also far to well entrenched to be overthrown.

Many interpret the recent appointment of Xi Jinping as leader for life as a sign of weakness and desire to prevent a succession crisis as long as possible
Also many recent military parades were a clear show of force to other members of the party
We should also keep in mind that the PLA is the armed brabch6 of the communist party, not of the country itself. This means that the military has an important role in domestic politics, and this could go very wrong

 

[schai]

It is possible if Mainland suffers a Mussolini type of defeats in the Greek Campaign.

Its credibility will be gone.

 

[Ratmancampidori]

I doubt if the party failed to fall during Tinanmen Square it won’t fall after a defeat against Taiwan.

If descent was shown the party would simply crack down harder and supress any and all dissent.

 

[authenticity]

I doubt if the party failed to fall during Tinanmen Square it won’t fall after a defeat against Taiwan.

If descent was shown the party would simply crack down harder and supress any and all dissent.

I fail to see the comparison. 1989 was a power demonstration by Li and Deng, and later Yang, where CPC hardliners and PLA didn't lose control - they exercised it.

A defeat on Taiwan's beaches would lead to a a leadership crisis - i.e. loss of control. The powerful factions and previous generations would agree to act to remove Xi; the lame duck Central Committee would be activated to replace members of the Standing Committee to create scapegoats.

In sum -

Would CPC be challenged (not just the current leadership, but the Party/Beijing itself) if they failed to act against DPP independence declaration or a more serious HK uprising? Yes.

Would a failed invasion of Taiwan lead to same? Not unlikely.

 

[RousseauX]

Many interpret the recent appointment of Xi Jinping as leader for life as a sign of weakness and desire to prevent a succession crisis as long as possible

Not really, it's a sign of Xi's personal strength rather than that of the party's weakness. Abrogating term limits wasn't a function of the party coming to a consensus that Xi is a great dude and we need to avoid picking the next person so much as it was Xi ruthlessly purging his political opponent to the point where there isn't enough of an opposition to object.

Also many recent military parades were a clear show of force to other members of the party

that's just stuff you are making up: even france have military parades

We should also keep in mind that the PLA is the armed brabch6 of the communist party, not of the country itself. This means that the military has an important role in domestic politics, and this could go very wrong

The military in China and just about every other Communist country has being firmly under the thumb of civilian party authorities.

And literally every military has an important role in domestic politics, the US is not excepted. See active duty/retired generals lobbying congress determining a significant chunk of the budget for instance.

 

[RousseauX]

A defeat on Taiwan's beaches would lead to a a leadership crisis - i.e. loss of control. The powerful factions and previous generations would agree to act to remove Xi; the lame duck Central Committee would be activated to replace members of the Standing Committee to create scapegoats.

Would it really?

Even Saakashvili survived 2008 in Georgia. And Xi's position in 2018 lot stronger than Saakashvili's in 2008.

 

[RousseauX]

In sum -

Would CPC be challenged (not just the current leadership, but the Party/Beijing itself) if they failed to act against DPP independence declaration or a more serious HK uprising? Yes.

Would a failed invasion of Taiwan lead to same? Not unlikely.

Come to think of it, of the sample sizes of governments who has faced military embarrassments before, how many survived vs fell?

I mean the Argentine Junta fell after 1982 but then that's because they were on shaky grounds in the first place.

The Russian government survived 1905, Egyptian/Syrian government didn't fall after 1967 or 1972 despite clear defeats, Pakistani government didn't in 1965, the US government survived Vietnam, Georgian government didn't fall in 2008, the Ukrainian government didn't fall in summer 2014

I guess the Pakistani gov fell as in the president got replaced after they lost Bangladesh but that's because they lost like half the country and had to sign a surrender so it's a lot worse than hypothetical chinese defeat in Taiwan. And even then it's not like you had some sort of revolution which overthrew the government.

So yeah, I think too many ppl itt are assuming there's gonna be a mass uprising or something ala Argentina Falklands but it seem like most of the time after losing the regime just chugs on.

Would CPC be challenged (not just the current leadership, but the Party/Beijing itself) if they failed to act against DPP independence declaration or a more serious HK uprising? Yes.

who's gonna mount the challenge exactly

 

[authenticity]

it was Xi ruthlessly purging his political opponent to the point where there isn't enough of an opposition to object.

Well, let's just say I admire your courage to assert your views with such certainty - and let's leave it at that.

 

[RousseauX]

Well, let's just say I admire your courage to assert your views with such certainty - and let's leave it at that.

at this point, whose the opposition in the party exactly?

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

The Russian government survived 1905,

All be it shaken to its core and forced to adopt numerous reforms.

 

[RousseauX]

All be it shaken to its core and forced to adopt numerous reforms.

and it would be a mistake to think China could not reform

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

and it would be a mistake to think China could not reform

Would said reforms maintain the one party dictatorship?

 

[RousseauX]

Would said reforms maintain the one party dictatorship?

Absolutely, the CCP has already shown itself capable of alternating crackdown and reform as means of maintaining power

Also, the CCP today has a lot more control over the country than Nicholas II did in 1905, back then in Russia there was an actual political dissident class and assassinations against government officials and the countryside was largely out of control of the government.

Basically: who do you expect to revolt against the regime? I mean everyone itt including @authenticity has being vaguely saying there's gonna be some challenger to party authority....except for the party has co-oped just about every organization which in the west would be considered civil society which would normally form the core of anti-government activism, and has enough control over social media to prevent a twitter revolution ala Egypt. I have no idea what kind of challenger they are thinking of except for some vague notion that there's gonna be an uprising.

 

[Barry Bull]

Basically: who do you expect to revolt against the regime? I mean everyone itt including @authenticity has being vaguely saying there's gonna be some challenger to party authority....except for the party has co-oped just about every organization which in the west would be considered civil society which would normally form the core of anti-government activism, and has enough control over social media to prevent a twitter revolution ala Egypt. I have no idea what kind of challenger they are thinking of except for some vague notion that there's gonna be an uprising.

Make no mistakes that there remains many different "schools" of thought on how the PRC should move forward even after the recent consolidation of power by the ruling faction.

If a campaign against Taiwan failed (for whatever reason and not discussing the losses for now), the current leader(s) is/ are likely to be heavily criticised and may have to offer serious concessions to internal opponents/ dissidents inside the PRC. Rather that will escalate into resignation of the President/ Party Chairman is unknown, but what can be sure is that credibility of the CCP would be affected. How that will will spread out to the public is the big unknown.

 

[RousseauX]

Make no mistakes that there remains many different "schools" of thought on how the PRC should move forward even after the recent consolidation of power by the ruling faction.

If a campaign against Taiwan failed (for whatever reason and not discussing the losses for now), the current leader(s) is/ are likely to be heavily criticised and may have to offer serious concessions to internal opponents/ dissidents inside the PRC. Rather that will escalate into resignation of the President/ Party Chairman is unknown, but what can be sure is that credibility of the CCP would be affected. How that will will spread out to the public is the big unknown.

oh Sure, there might be a leadership switch, and maybe it would be the first of many steps leading to the fall of the CCP a few decades hence

but the idea that it will trigger a mass public revolt against the party is unlikely today, the last time it was somewhat likely was the early-mid 1990s

This kind of thread comes up pretty often, in general people itt are of an age (basically people whose immediate most recent example of history comes from the revolutions 1980s-90s) greatly over-estimate the vulnerability of authoritarian regimes.