Costliest plausible Allied victory WWII

Starting September 1, 1939, what is the narrowest victory for the Allies in WWII which does not involve ASBs? Could the Axis have taken Russia and/or Africa and/or China completely (everyone seems to feel Zalophus californianus to be ASB)? Could we have doubled the OTL deathtoll? Tripled it? Could the United States have been hurt as bad as the United Kingdom was? How else could the price of victory have been inflated?
 

CalBear

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Increasing the Western Allies death toll is easy.

1. Keep up a full offensive in Italy

2. Invade the Balkans

3. Nazi use of chemical weapons would crank up loss rates considerably.

4. Invade Japan. This THE big ticket item. If things fell just wrong and the Japanese fought for every inch this could add well over 100K to the U.S. KIA total. It also means the death of at least 100,000 addtional civilians per month of extended war on the Asian mainland in Japanese occuppied territory.

Increasing the Russian death total is also simple as pie.

1. Reduce the number of large caliber AAA guns across Germany by 20%. Install them as anti tank weapons/artillery in the East starting at the Dnieper and back into German Territory with a final heavily fortified line on the Oder.

2. Move the forces squandered in the Ardennes Offensive to the East along the Oder.

3. Use of chemical weapons on a large scale.

This could push up Russian losses by several hundred thousand (granted, compared to the 20 million lost IOTL, this is a drop in the bucket, but it is also close to the TOTAL KIA total for the U.S/ in the entire war).

None of these actually lead to an Axis victory or even Conditional Surrender and all of them would kill more Axis troops than than Allied ones (probably at a 2:1 ratio, with civilian losses running at an addtional 4 or 5 to 1), but they would have made the war even more costly for the Allies.
 

Deleted member 1487

German early victory at Stalingrad (ie before it was defended or bombed), which allows them to hold on the Vistula line. There is no Uranus victory then in 1942-3, which leaves the Germans considerably stronger and able to resist in the East for longer. Germany as a whole is stronger, the Soviets are weaker and less able to advance (they aren't able to conscript men from newly liberated areas as early), leaving more Germans available to hold other fronts. The Soviet advance slows to a crawl by 1944 with the Western Allies facing a stronger enemy in Normandy. The worst Allied fears play out, as fighting through France takes much longer, as more Germans are alive/available to fight. Fighting lasts well into 1945 before Germany is even at the front line, war may last into 1946 and Dresden is hit with an Abomb. War doesn't stop immediately, but fighting winds down quicker after that.

Japan holds out for longer because of the focus on Germany and the Soviets are more ground up, meaning they don't declare war on Japan early enough, which means an invasion is necessary. Bloody fighting ensues even after Abombs and Japan falls in 1946. Soviets enter near the end and take Manchuria and Korea.
 
Japan anticipates an eventual betrayal by Russia, particularly after Operation Bagration really gets underway during the summer of 1944. They order their infamous Bio-warfare team, Unit 731 to prepare biological attacks against the Russians if and when this invasion occurs. Given a year to prepare, Unit 731 creates millions of cannisters to deploy bubonic-plague infected fleas, and anthrax spores. These cannisters are loaded into planes, piloted by Kamakazees, whose mission will be to explode their planes, with their deadly cargo above enemy lines. Ceramic cannisters will also be deployed to artillery crews near the Manchurian border.

When operation August Storm commences in August, 1945 most of these plans are foiled by Soviet air superiority. However, some do get through, infecting thousands of Soviet Personnel with virtually incurable, and extremely commutable diseases. If proper quarantine is not observed, potentially hundreds of thousands of soldiers, but also civilians could die in both the Soviet Union, and those areas of Manchuria and Korea they occupied.

The Japanese could also attempt biological weapons attacks against massed US troop concentrations in the event that Operation Downfall actually commenced, though I suspect they would be less effective, as the US Army and Marines were better organized, and operating so far from home that any infections could more easily be quarantined.
 
Couple a sensible Barbaorssa with some sort of horrible accident which wipes out the Manhattan project.
 
Well taken from a bunch of random bits and TLs we could plausibly:

  • Have germany to focus on a jet fighter instead of converting the fighter to a jet bomber, giving them better scouts and air defense.
  • With a combination of good luck, popularity and early success give the German forces more control and less political interference. This would vastly improve German performance against the USSR.
  • German armour isn't wasted on Kursk, giving the german army retained mobility.
  • The german navy realizes the value of naval mines (perhaps from Norway?) and converts most of their subs to mine layers.
  • The german sub forces are fully deployed with mine layers on the East Coast at the start of the American entry into war, as opposed to the half-assed OTL effort which almost crippled U.S. oil.
  • The battle of britain does not happen, Germany saves many pilots and birds, instead someone convinces hitler to invest on rockets.
  • Some serious shock like token british bombing of german cities that could be used as a pretext for full mobilization of germany in 40-41 instead of 44.
  • Spain is convinced to join in, perhaps by better axis performance and such.
  • Full on invasion of Italy, blood for every inch, supplies must come from the Suez as Spain is hostile.
  • Lower german sub losses as most of their subs are minelayers that don't need to engage shipping directly.
  • D-day comes, german army retreat and delay, then as the invasion approaches the German border (this would the pt in OTL where they were overextended) minelayer surge in unison with offensive in France. The invasion fails .
  • Later and more brutal genocidal policies. Selective too, depopulating each region quickly then moving on to the rest as opposed to a spread out killing that gives the populance time to organize resistance movements.
  • Actual defenses in the Eastern Front.
  • Scorch earth policies on both sides.
  • The first atomic bomb fails, the plane is shot down/the bomb fails to denonate. This gives the Germans nuclear deterent to an extent, extending the conventional war.
  • Germans acquire Russian tanks from Finland and they realise that they need better tanks.
  • Eventual allied advances from Italy and the USSR, but no real breakthroughs and every inch is bled for. Much of Europe , Britain, and the USSR is systematically destroyed through fighting, economical strain, scorch earth policies, depopulation policies, and general neglect.
  • Britian starves due to minelayers but the people stay resolute due to rationing, airlifts, and charismatic leaders.
  • The USA does not implement the Marshal plan after the war as the cheif architects of the plan never visit Pos-twar Euorpe and instead focus on the distressed domestic economy.As a result some of post-war Europe and the USSR starves.
  • USA shipping is crippled from the war, postwar USA is alot poorer than OTL.
  • Japanese biological warfare development is priortized and successfully implented against most of asia, massive depopulation, unfortunately it also hits the Japanese empire, Japan proper itself is spared due to USA naval superority.
  • As the first atomic bomb falls into German hand (functional or not) there will be no nukes for Japan, the USSR invades Japan late, the USA invades Japan proper while bombing the Japanese infrastructure. The Japanese culture becomes extinct as it's practitioners starve or die in battle.
  • The lower countries are deliberately flooded due to sabotage/fighting.
  • Total dam destruction is used as a defensive practice.
  • The land is salted as the Germans/Russians retreat, the most fertile parts of Europe are no more.
  • A policy of oil-well destruction for denial to the enemy. The smoke is visible from space.
 
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