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Let's say one of two scenarios happens:

First scenario: Cortés is killed or captured by Narváez, who brings him back to Cuba and ends the invasion of the Aztec Empire. Most likely the Spanish will come back. But the Mayans are learning Spanish tactics from Gonzalo Guerrero, and there are probably some deserters and abandoned horses that the Aztecs can utilize to adopt like the Chichimeca historically.

Would the Aztecs survive the second invasion? And would that stop all attempts at conquest, or only the Spanish? Would the Portuguese invade?

When would the second excursion occur?

Second scenario: Cortés conquers Mexico as he did. However, the Chichimeca adopt Spanish guns to defend their cities, while retaining horse archery on the offensive, meaning the Spanish are constantly diverted towards northern attacks and never manage to "domesticate" the Chichimeca. In fact, perhaps the northerners, as their culture becomes more "civilized" and palatable to Nahua people, incite a rebellion against the Spanish.

Regardless, Pizarro's capture of Atahualpa occurs as it did. So does the emplacement of the puppet Inca emperor Túpac Huallpa. However, Manco Inca is successful in the Siege of Cusco, and begins to reconquer Peru.

A victory at Cusco would provide him with much more European materiel that he needs to continue modernizing, so could Manco push the Spanish out?

What would happen with the gun-and-sword-toting Chichimeca?

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Would this be enough for the native empires to survive, modernize, and recover? On one hand, disease outbreaks would provide a constant, long-lasting barrier to expansion. On the other hand, this means the population, as historically, would not decline to its minimum until the 17th century. There's also always the Iroquois option of allowing surrounding tribes to immigrate, or capturing them and assimilating them.

Might there be more Gonzalo Guerreros who go native and provide valuable assistance?

(Note: These are both separate scenarios.)
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