Cortés and Pizarro fail, Aztecs and Incas modernize... then what?

Let's say one of two scenarios happens:

First scenario: Cortés is killed or captured by Narváez, who brings him back to Cuba and ends the invasion of the Aztec Empire. Most likely the Spanish will come back. But the Mayans are learning Spanish tactics from Gonzalo Guerrero, and there are probably some deserters and abandoned horses that the Aztecs can utilize to adopt like the Chichimeca historically.

Would the Aztecs survive the second invasion? And would that stop all attempts at conquest, or only the Spanish? Would the Portuguese invade?

When would the second excursion occur?

Second scenario: Cortés conquers Mexico as he did. However, the Chichimeca adopt Spanish guns to defend their cities, while retaining horse archery on the offensive, meaning the Spanish are constantly diverted towards northern attacks and never manage to "domesticate" the Chichimeca. In fact, perhaps the northerners, as their culture becomes more "civilized" and palatable to Nahua people, incite a rebellion against the Spanish.

Regardless, Pizarro's capture of Atahualpa occurs as it did. So does the emplacement of the puppet Inca emperor Túpac Huallpa. However, Manco Inca is successful in the Siege of Cusco, and begins to reconquer Peru.

A victory at Cusco would provide him with much more European materiel that he needs to continue modernizing, so could Manco push the Spanish out?

What would happen with the gun-and-sword-toting Chichimeca?

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Would this be enough for the native empires to survive, modernize, and recover? On one hand, disease outbreaks would provide a constant, long-lasting barrier to expansion. On the other hand, this means the population, as historically, would not decline to its minimum until the 17th century. There's also always the Iroquois option of allowing surrounding tribes to immigrate, or capturing them and assimilating them.

Might there be more Gonzalo Guerreros who go native and provide valuable assistance?

(Note: These are both separate scenarios.)
 
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Just curious would'nt the Aztecs still have a large fight on their hands, even if Cortes was killed, due to the fact that the natives allied to Cortes will still be around. Correct me if I'm wrong though.

P.S does anyone know what I good book on this topic (Pre-Colombian America) would be.
 
Just curious would'nt the Aztecs still have a large fight on their hands, even if Cortes was killed, due to the fact that the natives allied to Cortes will still be around. Correct me if I'm wrong though.
Well, the final assault on Tenochtitlán hadn't happened yet. The Aztecs still have to deal with the Tlaxcalans, but probably not a vast coalition. If the Aztecs decide to conquer Tlaxcala, it'll probably take the form of a final showdown where one or the other is eliminated. Or, they may ally with factions in Tlaxcala that wanted to join the Aztec Empire, to make things easier.

P.S does anyone know what I good book on this topic (Pre-Colombian America) would be.
Charles Mann's 1491: New Revelations of the Americas before Columbus. And Hugh Thomas has written good books about the conquests, which include information about the native societies too.
 
I guess if Manco Inca is able to take Cuzco, aget enough supplys, then his armies will be able to defeat the spaniard garrisons in Lima, ; so then they will eb able to reconquer the territory, using the same weapon of spaniards, as the techniques, but also, apllying the knowleddge of the territory
 
I guess if Manco Inca is able to take Cuzco, aget enough supplys, then his armies will be able to defeat the spaniard garrisons in Lima,
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Didn't the Spaniards have many native allies? I've read skeletons have been found that had powder weapon and native weapon wounds both.
 
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Did tribes freely join the Aztec empire? What with all the cutting-out-hearts of subjects thing.

I think that you were given a choice: Join freely, pay a small'ish annual tribute of feathers, cocoa beans, and whatever ressources were unique to your region, or be forced to join at "swordpoint", meaning harsher tributes and the capture and sacrifice of many of your wariors.
It would make sense for tribes to join freely, even before being presented with the choice.
Edit: Even in OTL, the Aztecs could have taken Cortez and his alliance as it stood.....if they had changed their tactics. The Aztecs didn't intend to kill their enemies in battle, but to capture them for sacrifice (some unfortunate Spaniards suffered that atrocious fate). That means that they were at a distinct disadvantage, compared to the Spaniards who had no qualms killing from afar with muskets and cannons (and bows and arrows), whereas they had to go up close and personal.

If they had said: "Fuck it, we'll get sacrifices elsewhere...let's just take these people out!", Cortez wouldn't have succeeded.
 
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Did tribes freely join the Aztec empire? What with all the cutting-out-hearts of subjects thing.
Tlaxcala was the big traditional enemy of the Aztecs, but by the time of the conquest there were people, princes actually, in Tlaxcala who wanted to ally with the Aztecs to get rid of the Spanish.
 
Well, the first wave of epidemics is still going to hit hard. There will also be follow-up Spanish expeditions fairly soon after, certainly before the Aztecs can recover from the disruption. It's not like possessing some captured steel gives you immediate knowledge of blacksmithing.

Narvaez would absolutely be back once he's dealt with Cortez the usurper. By this point, rumors of the wealth of the Aztecs will be all over the place. Now, Narvaez's later career doesn't exactly inspire confidence in his ability, but he might still make headway (he seems to have been reasonably competent in Cuba), and even if he doesn't, someone else will.

Manco Inca is in the same situation; he can defeat the Pizarro brothers, but Diego de Almagro (again, not the most successful of conquistadors, but hardly a non-entity) is still running around with a small army, and more adventurers will probably show up from Panama as reinforcements. Best case is likely not to far from OTL; he holds on to a reduced (but larger than OTL?) rump state for a few decades, before the Spanish launch a major expedition to subdue him.

I think the best option for the Inca basically requires wiping out Pizarro from the start, and then being ready to see off later invaders. Basically, the conquistadors only have to be lucky once (and in the meantime they can launch raids and take ransoms), while the native empires have to hold them off each time, all while dealing with massive epidemics and frequent civil war/unrest.
 
Well, the first wave of epidemics is still going to hit hard. There will also be follow-up Spanish expeditions fairly soon after, certainly before the Aztecs can recover from the disruption. It's not like possessing some captured steel gives you immediate knowledge of blacksmithing.

Narvaez would absolutely be back once he's dealt with Cortez the usurper. By this point, rumors of the wealth of the Aztecs will be all over the place. Now, Narvaez's later career doesn't exactly inspire confidence in his ability, but he might still make headway (he seems to have been reasonably competent in Cuba), and even if he doesn't, someone else will.

Manco Inca is in the same situation; he can defeat the Pizarro brothers, but Diego de Almagro (again, not the most successful of conquistadors, but hardly a non-entity) is still running around with a small army, and more adventurers will probably show up from Panama as reinforcements. Best case is likely not to far from OTL; he holds on to a reduced (but larger than OTL?) rump state for a few decades, before the Spanish launch a major expedition to subdue him.

I think the best option for the Inca basically requires wiping out Pizarro from the start, and then being ready to see off later invaders. Basically, the conquistadors only have to be lucky once (and in the meantime they can launch raids and take ransoms), while the native empires have to hold them off each time, all while dealing with massive epidemics and frequent civil war/unrest.

yeah, that will be the best options, however, they need still techonology and possibly allies, so is there a way that Incas had been able to contact some another european power, some enemy of Spain, ?
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Kind of a Western Hemisphere version of (EH) India?

where various "native" states try and adapt quickly enough (in between epidemics, of course, and in an era where the concept of "nation state" doesn't really exist in the Western Hemisphere) before the Spanish (or Portuguese, or French, or whoever) show up?

Interesting...of course, that didn't really work out for the Sikhs, Moguls, etc., and they had the advantages of resistance to EH diseases, something signficantly less of the technological differential, and (probably most importantly) less of the political/economic advantages that the Europeans had.

The Western Hemisphere cultures, even those like the Mexica etc, were still in the Neolithic, unfortunately for them; societies in the Neolithic (in the Western Hemisphere, southern Africa, and Oceania) did not do well in the era of the Global Exchange.

The other possibility is given the "germs" element of the three horsemen, the Inca or whoever end up like the Mississippian, Caddoan, and Natchez cultures, destroyed without a whole lot of active effort by the Europeans, actually ... and leaving the "pyramid builders" even more a matter of myth and Eurocentrism than the "Mound Builders" were historically.

Kind of spooky, actually, imagining an "empty" Tenoctitlan whenere de los Casas or whoever comes across it...

Images of "there will come soft rains," indeed.

Best,
 
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