Corisca and Poland (PoD 1767/1791)

Two PoDs:
1 - Corsica: In 1755 Republic of Corsica was founded, a modern nation with a modern constitution, after the Corsican droce the Genoese from their island. 1767, in OTL, Genoa sold their claim to France who conquered the island one year later. But what will happen, if France decided that the price is too high and did not buy the claim?
2 - Poland: After several crises the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth gave themselves a modern constitution in 1791. But some nobles (the Targowica Confederation) did not like it and called Russia for help, starting events that lead to the Second Partition of the Commonwealth in 1793. But what will happen if they had realized that their opposition to the May 3 Constitutionwould lead to the end of the independence of the Commonwealth?

Can those two democracies survive?
 
I wonder if with Corsica it might be slightly better to have this situation:

1. Genoa has a slightly more successful attempt at reconquest. Ajaccio is siezed in about 1763 while the rest of the island remains in Republican hands.

2. c. 1770: after several years of geurilla fighting and several near misses when Ajaccio is nearly captured, it falls once more to the forces of the republic. Genoa continues attempts to take the island without much success (e.g. Ajaccio held for a month or less).

3. c. 1780: Last expulsion of the Genoese from Corsica. A few desultory attempts are made to capture the island which fail.

4. c. 1787: Genoa attempts to sell the island. France is now too weak, and before the deal can be completed, everyone's distracted by the French Revolution.

5. The French revolution sees a brief conquest of Genoa. After the war, it is either granted independence or incorporated into Sardinia-Piedemont. Corsica is recognised as independent.
 
The Corsican POD is quite interesting, since it may butterfly a certain Corsican's attempt to conquer all of Europe. The guy would have been successful OTL had he not tried to invade Russia. :D
 
The Corsican POD is quite interesting, since it may butterfly a certain Corsican's attempt to conquer all of Europe. The guy would have been successful OTL had he not tried to invade Russia. :D
Napolean Bonaparte will be one of Corsica's greatest military leaders, who manages to keep the island idependent during the Age of Revolution and Restauration.
 
2 - Poland: After several crises the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth gave themselves a modern constitution in 1791. But some nobles (the Targowica Confederation) did not like it and called Russia for help, starting events that lead to the Second Partition of the Commonwealth in 1793. But what will happen if they had realized that their opposition to the May 3 Constitutionwould lead to the end of the independence of the Commonwealth?

News for you: most of nobles were against the 3 May Constitution. There's a reason that it had been enacted through coup d'etat. Also Russia's primary reason for interviening in PLC wasn't the Constitution, but the PLC-Prussian alliance. No alliance lowers the probability of Russian intervention a lot. When one think about it, for continued PLC existence, no 3 May Constitution may have been better - as long there are fiscal & military reforms.
 
News for you: most of nobles were against the 3 May Constitution. There's a reason that it had been enacted through coup d'etat. Also Russia's primary reason for interviening in PLC wasn't the Constitution, but the PLC-Prussian alliance. No alliance lowers the probability of Russian intervention a lot. When one think about it, for continued PLC existence, no 3 May Constitution may have been better - as long there are fiscal & military reforms.
News for you, too: If most nobles were against the Constitution of May 3rd than the Sejm would have not be able to ratify it. But they did.
The Targowica Confederation wanted to abolish all reforms done since 1770 and return Poland into the russian sphere of influence. Without them persuading Russia to intervene, Russia would not have done it. So the Polish–Russian War of 1792 would also not happen. And thus the Second Partition of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth of 1793 would also not happen.

BTW this is the same TL as the one with a surviving Corsican Republic.
 
News for you, too: If most nobles were against the Constitution of May 3rd than the Sejm would have not be able to ratify it. But they did.
The Targowica Confederation wanted to abolish all reforms done since 1770 and return Poland into the russian sphere of influence. Without them persuading Russia to intervene, Russia would not have done it. So the Polish–Russian War of 1792 would also not happen. And thus the Second Partition of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth of 1793 would also not happen.

BTW this is the same TL as the one with a surviving Corsican Republic.

The problem with things not happening is that usually something else does, and that something else is not usually peace and goodwill, but somebody else coming along to take advantage of you

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
That's true. But who?
Without the Targowica Confederation demanding an intervention Russia will not invade, because that would lead to war with Prussia. Prussia won't intervene because they are allied with Poland. And there won't be a Napoleon changing the political map of Europe. (He is Corsican and Corisca is not part of France.)
That also means the HRE still exists with its hundreds of de facto sovereign states.
 
Originally posted by Barbarossa Rotbart
Without the Targowica Confederation demanding an intervention Russia will not invade, because that would lead to war with Prussia. Prussia won't intervene because they are allied with Poland. And there won't be a Napoleon changing the political map of Europe. (He is Corsican and Corisca is not part of France.)
IIRC the Targowica Confederation was actually only a pretext. Catherine II wanted to intervene because she was worried that reformed PLC might become too independent, instead of remaining Russian protectorate. Prussia was shocked by the May Constitution, affraid that PLC was following the French Republic and might become a danger to every absolute monarchy in Europe. That is why Prussia did not help PLC but even participated in the 2nd partition.
 
News for you, too: If most nobles were against the Constitution of May 3rd than the Sejm would have not be able to ratify it. But they did.
On 3rd May there were only 182 MPs present. Out of 513. And of 182 only 110 voted yes. 110 is not a majority of 513, y'know...
 
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