Coolidge re-elected 1928

WI Coolidge decided that TR's big mistake was to announce being releceted would be a third term which seemed exessive.

I assume that he would have won the 1928 election quite comfortably.

I am guessing that he would not follow policies greatly different to Herbert Hoover.

I assume he would not run in 1932.

Might a Republican seek the nomination of VERY different polcies.

I assume that unless a new Republican candidate was able to massively dissociate themselves from the previous administration FDR sill wins.

Any significant difference to otl??
 
He would have died during his term. Wonder who his VP would have been.

The government spending increases under Hoover would most likely not have happened.
 
He would have died during his term. Wonder who his VP would have been.

If he hadn't gotten into the Oligarchy of Nine, Charles Evans Hughes would probably have been the Republican Presidential or Vice-Presidential candidate.
 

MAlexMatt

Banned
Well, Coolidge was a fairly bog standard Republican in many respects, I expect him to still support Smoot-Hawley.

Benjamin Strong died at the end of his first term, so Harrison is already President of the Fed.

He's unlikely to play Hoover's games with the economy, but there was a lot of built up mal-investment across the world, so there is still going to be a series of financial panics that need to work their way through the global financial system, and with Harrison still at the helm of the Fed monetary policy probably won't be any more accommodating than IOTL (that is, not at all).

Without the political hot potato surrounding the gold standard in late 1932 (something of an assumption, mind) the last panic is probably headed off. So, combined with the slightly less deep initial contraction (think: 20% unemployment instead of 25%, 25% GNP contraction instead of 33%; still devastating but not to quite the same magnitude as IOTL), recovery probably sets in sometime in the middle of 1932 instead of in 1933. Not enough to save a prospective Republican candidate, mind, but it'll be there.

How things really evolve depend entirely on who is running for office ITTL, but that's about what I can see happening up until the election itself.
 
I expect him to still support Smoot-Hawley.
Why? He rejected an similar S-H bill that focused on agricultural prices. And given S-H was originally based on agricultural prices and then expanded, he would probably veto it given his track record.
 
Not happening. Completely ASB.
Coolidge wasn't a big fan of the Presidency, and he certainly knew when he was done. He elected not to run in '28 and let Hoover take the blame.;)
 

MAlexMatt

Banned
Why? He rejected an similar S-H bill that focused on agricultural prices. And given S-H was originally based on agricultural prices and then expanded, he would probably veto it given his track record.

Really? I assumed he'd be fairly protectionist as a mainstreamish Republican.

If so, then that throws the whole analysis off. The Great Depression, essentially, doesn't happen as we remember it and, instead, there's a short-sharp recession in '29 and '30 that's remembered more like the '20-'21 downturn.

Also, I'm that little bit more convinced that Coolidge was the best President the US has ever had.
 

MAlexMatt

Banned
Well, he was the last man in the office to really understand the Federal system we have. His general stance on race was admirable for the time, and I'm of the opinion that, had he lived longer, and had the country not been distracted by the Great Depression at the time, he would have been an excellent figurehead for an early Civil Rights movement.

But really it was just his general level-headedness. I guess it's a New Englander trait, but he wasn't really a part of the bitter partisanship that dominated Washington before him and ever since. He knew how to play the game, but he played it with a sense of dignity that nobody else has really matched. If we had more politicians like him, our country would be better off for it.
 
If Silent Cal had allowed himself to run , he would have won . The Great Depression would have been even worse. Hoover made errors but his efforts were so much better than sit on the side line Cal would have done. Coolidge is in the bottom 5 worst Presidents the US ever had. I hate to imagine how bad the Bonus Army debacle would have been after what he did in Boston when he was Governor during the Red scare.
 
Describe how he understood the federal policies. His total worshiping of business led to total deregulation and lack of oversight. That partially caused the great depression. He didn't understand government existed to help
You say dignity, I say reactionary. He held a meticulous control over his wife's clothes. Yes, his stances on race were admirable, but coming from Massachusetts, the state of Curley, he could have gone further.
 

MAlexMatt

Banned
Describe how he understood the federal policies.

Well, you've probably heard about how he supported maximum working hours and a minimum wage as governor in Massachusetts, right? But he was against Federal legislation on the subject.

Most politicians today just think of the Fed as a more powerful state government, at the least. Coolidge understood that there were actually distinct jurisdictions and the Federal sphere was more circumscribed than the general sphere the states had available.

His total worshiping of business led to total deregulation and lack of oversight. That partially caused the great depression.

Don't you need regulation in the first place to deregulate?

'A lack of regulation' is a post-hoc story the blue model liberals have made up for why the Great Depression happened. Very few real economists take it seriously. More or less nobody outside of left-wing of old-school Keynesians does.

He didn't understand government existed to help

That seems to be a pretty broad criticism. Care to cite specific examples and, perchance, more specifically define your terms?


You say dignity, I say reactionary. He held a meticulous control over his wife's clothes.

Like I said, New Englander through and through.

Yes, his stances on race were admirable, but coming from Massachusetts, the state of Curley, he could have gone further.

Michael Curley?
 
James Michael Curley, yes.
You got me on Coolidge deregulating the economy. But no, plenty of people take seriously the idea that Coolidge's lack of willingness to control the excesses of the '20s led to the Great Depression.
New Englander? If you mean Vermont and Maine, yes. Certainly not from Boston.
 
There is no Reconstruction Finanance Corparstion. So the depression is worse.He wins the blame for the depression. The homeless are living in Cooldgevilles The author of Backstairs at the Whitehouse ( a memoir written by a member of the White House houshold staff) said that Cooldge regretted not running in 1928
 

MAlexMatt

Banned
James Michael Curley, yes.

Well, Curley was never president. At some point you need to take into account influence. Coolidge might not have been so radical, but Coolidge's name on a Civil Rights movement in an alt-30's where the economy is stable and growing and people aren't afraid for their livelihoods is going to have a much larger effect on the national stage.

You got me on Coolidge deregulating the economy. But no, plenty of people take seriously the idea that Coolidge's lack of willingness to control the excesses of the '20s led to the Great Depression.

Mostly historians, who can't be trusted with economic history as far as you could throw the relevant university history department.

New Englander? If you mean Vermont and Maine, yes. Certainly not from Boston.

That's the real New England, anyway :D:rolleyes::p

BTW, where do you get that he would veto a tariff? Everything I'm seeing is he wasn't particularly anti-tariff. Protectionism was the particular Republican sin of this era.
 

Zioneer

Banned
Well, you've probably heard about how he supported maximum working hours and a minimum wage as governor in Massachusetts, right? But he was against Federal legislation on the subject.

He should've had those things be passed as Federal legislation; they're good things.

Most politicians today just think of the Fed as a more powerful state government, at the least. Coolidge understood that there were actually distinct jurisdictions and the Federal sphere was more circumscribed than the general sphere the states had available.

Don't know enough about this, so won't comment on this.


Don't you need regulation in the first place to deregulate?

'A lack of regulation' is a post-hoc story the blue model liberals have made up for why the Great Depression happened. Very few real economists take it seriously. More or less nobody outside of left-wing of old-school Keynesians does.

Haha, are you serious? Pretty much all real economists say lack of regulation is what caused the Great Depression. And if it isn't lack of regulation, what is it?


That seems to be a pretty broad criticism. Care to cite specific examples and, perchance, more specifically define your terms?

How about the WW1 Adjusted Compensation Act? Or the lack of federal assistance during the Mississippi Flood of 1927?

Like I said, New Englander through and through.

That's not always a good thing.
 
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