Continuing Spanish Florida

Under what sort of circumstances could Spain keep at least part of Florida into, say, the 1890's, or until Spanish Florida seeks independence?

I think West Florida is doomed to be American, but could East Florida be retained, especially if something...unpleasant were done to the Seminoles by the Spanish?
 
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I don't think Spanish Florida is feasible in the long term, as long as the USA exists, what with it's manifest destiny. Of course, it was American Independence that allowed Spain to reclaim Florida, as it had been taken from them by Britain in the aftermath of the Seven Years War. There is also the problem that Spain offered a lot of land packages after gaining Florida back, but it seemed only to attract American settlers who ignored Spanish officials... Spanish presence was limited to a few hundred soldiers. As late as 1810, remains of British soldiers (!) revolted against Spanish rule. It was also a haven for escaped slaves, which peeved the USA to no end.

So you need too:

1) somehow allow Spain to keep Florida in the aftermath of the Seven Years War, or perhaps it never happens at all. Whenever Spain ceded Florida to Britain originally, most of the Spanish settlers left and Spain never bothered to aggressively colonize the territory again, even after regaining it.

2) Spanish presence needs to be increased -- there needs to be something of economic benefit which might no doubt draw in Spanish settlers? Keep foreign settlers to a minimum.

3) Prevent the Americans from gaining independence, or butterfly away the Revolutionary war.

These would allow Spain to keep Florida indefinitely, although for how long, I'm not sure.
 
There's not a whole lot in Florida for the Spanish to really bother trying to hold. There aren't any real commercial resources and the state is 90% inhospitable until you invent anti-malarial drugs and the air conditioner. Even if you tried to settle the area, you're going to run into the most troublesome native Americans on the continent.

St. Augustine is the only real reason to maintain a presence in the territory, it's naval base offers protection to trans-Atlantic shipping and gives the Spanish a base from which they can attack North to the US or against the British. The problem with this is that'll make the fortress far more of a target for the British and Americans than a helpful base for the Spanish.

The British are going to want it to use against the Americans and give British Privateers a better base. They will also want to arm the natives (as in OTL) to piss off the Americans, and the Americans will definitely move in to take them out. Nothing more American than slaughtering natives.

I think the best hope is to have the Republic of West Florida catch on, but that's not likely at all either.
 
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Under what sort of circumstances could Spain keep at least part of Florida into, say, the 1890's, or until Spanish Florida seeks independence?

I think West Florida is doomed to be American, but could East Florida be retained, especially if something...unpleasant were done to the Seminoles by the Spanish?

I doubt the Spanish could do much. The US military went after the Seminoles three times with far greater manpower and resources than the Spanish had in Florida, and they got their tail kicked. Some scholars compare it to an early version of the Vietnam War in that the US lost so badly many Americans seriously doubted their country could defeat Mexico in the next war.

And like others point out, there's not much there that Spain wants.

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http://www.jupiter.fl.us/HistoryWeb/Seminoles.cfm
....
Early version of Vietnam
Historians often compare the Second Seminole War to the Vietnam War. Many Americans called the Seminole war unwinnable and immoral. Newspapers of the day questioned why American boys were dying in a worthless piece of Florida swamp. The Seminole struggle grew into the longest and costliest of all American Indian wars. It was also the deadliest, with more than 1,500 regular soldiers and sailors lost. The beginning of the end came at the Battle of Okeechobee, which President Lincoln noted as "one of the most desperate struggles known to the annals of Indian Warfare," and the Battle of Loxahatchee on the Loxahatchee River in northern Palm Beach County. With the assurance that his people would not be sold back into slavery, Abraham helped negotiate peace, ending his 20-year fight....
 
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