Constantinople Largest City In The World

Ancient PODs aren't going to cut it. In order for Constantinople to become the largest city in the world it needs to be the focal point of a large stable state which will give it a large population to move to the city when industrialization and urbanization take hold. In addition you would also need an economically stronger Eastern Europe so the city can truly take advantage, in the modern era, of its position as a cross roads between Europe and the Middle East and Russia and the Mediterranean.


You could probably get it with earlier Ottoman reforms, some more Ottoman successes on various fronts (they might have to hold onto Egypt but it might not be an absolute requirement) and Ottoman neutrality in WWI (or possibly even Central Power victory in WWI since you likely need a strong Hapsburg Empire or similar state in the region as well).

Couple those early Ottoman reforms with a desire and ability to industrialize, sprinkle in some technological innovation, and there is no reason to think that Constantinople couldn't be the New York City or Tokyo of the Near East.



You do have a lot of obstacles to overcome. Lack of water, space, historic regional inability, Turkish, Slavic, and Arab nationalism, the constant threat of Russia, etc., etc. but that's exactly why history turned out the way it did in the first place :p
 

katchen

Banned
Tsar Alexander I takes Napoleon up on his offer of a joint invasion of the Ottoman Empire after the Peace of Tislit in 1806. The two armies divide the Balkans in 1806-1807 with Napoleon moving through Poland and Hungary to invade Bosnia Hercegovina, thence Serbia, Albania, Greece and Macdedonia to reach the Dardenelles by 1807. In the meantime, Tsar Alexander moves through Moldavia, Wallachia and Bulgaria to take The City, which he renames Konstantinopol, proclaiming himself Tsar Augustus (or is it Augustulus or Basileus) and the Russian Empire the Eastern Roman Empire, giving substance to the Russian Empire's claim to be the Third Rome.
As much as this angers Napoleon, Napoleon can do nothing about this because ...Spain has rebelled against the Empire of the French and Napoleon must send troops to put the rebellion down. By 1808, Napoleon is having to withdraw his forces from the Balkans and the Tsar Baseleius has occupied and annexed the former Ottoman Empire all the way to the Adriatic, both sides of the Sea of Marmara and Dardenelles and the Aegean Sea as far as Smyrna and the island of Chios , Lesbos and Euboea, while the British, in an effort to maintain the European balance of power has taken Crete, Cyprus, Karpathos, Rhodes, the Cyclades and the Dodecanese Islands from the Ottoman Empire leaving a rump Ottoman Empire with it's capital in what had been the Empire's second city, Aleppo.
The Russians, meanwhile, have moved their capital from St. Pet4ersburg to Konstantinopol and defy the British or the rest of the Concert of Europe to pry them loose from it or any of the Balkans (Pan Slavism and Pan Eastern Orthodoxy becomes a non-issue ITTL) after Napoleon is finally defeated in 1814. Konstantinopol grows steadily as the capital of the new, russian speaking Eastern Rome during the 19tth and 20th Centuries becoming the largest city in the world and getting it's water by aquaduct, first from the Martisa and later on in the 20th Century, all the way from the Danube. and extending along both sides of the Bosporus from the Sea of Marmara to the Black Sea with a ship canal sending shipping bypassing the Bosporus by mid 20th Century.
 
Ottoman Empire survives, retains Arabia and Turkey at the least.

Rich in oil, it prospers for decades, inviting workers and enterprises from all over the world to build up the oil fields in Arabia and Mesopotamia.

The oil industry starts to decline, but there's plenty of land, labor, and capital, in place for the Ottomans to retain their financial base.

Istanbul becomes a massive center, bolstered by internal and external immigration. Due to butterflies it may still be named Constantinople.

Perhaps Arab, Syrian, and Kurdish nationalism starts to become a problem. If so, then southern areas will break off, causing Turks will flee to Turkey, and Istanbul will be the place most of them settle in initially.

To counteract the Kurds, they probably enact natalist policies or ideology.
 
Ancient PODs aren't going to cut it. In order for Constantinople to become the largest city in the world it needs to be the focal point of a large stable state which will give it a large population to move to the city when industrialization and urbanization take hold.
Constantinople WAS the largest city in OTL - repeatedly. In 5th-6th century, and again in 16th-17th century.

It is the other part of original condition. At least 1 million more than the second largest city. Which means at least 1,5...2,5 million people (second largest would be at least 0,5 millions). No city exceeded 1,5 millions before 1800, and OTL the first city to exceed the second city by 1 million was London, by 1850. The 2nd place was shared then by Paris and Edo.

You could probably get it with earlier Ottoman reforms, some more Ottoman successes on various fronts (they might have to hold onto Egypt but it might not be an absolute requirement) and Ottoman neutrality in WWI (or possibly even Central Power victory in WWI since you likely need a strong Hapsburg Empire or similar state in the region as well).
Or successful Ottoman reforms butterfly away WWI in the first place.
 
Constantinople WAS the largest city in OTL - repeatedly. In 5th-6th century, and again in 16th-17th century.

It is the other part of original condition. At least 1 million more than the second largest city. Which means at least 1,5...2,5 million people (second largest would be at least 0,5 millions). No city exceeded 1,5 millions before 1800, and OTL the first city to exceed the second city by 1 million was London, by 1850. The 2nd place was shared then by Paris and Edo.

Source for those statistics?
 
They certainly were Europe's largest city for some time, after Rome declined. How big were the East Asian cities at that time? Are there any data?
 
Quite hard to find reliable ones.

Serious candidates:
Ctesiphon
Pataliputra
Luoyang
Nanjing

I actually see these four to be more problematic than growing Constantinople up with time; all four are in better positions for growing (not trade but water and grain) and in larger/more populous nations.
 
- To the point about the plague and Alexandria, my understanding of biology and history is that diseases do not respect borders. Neither do merchants. The Black Plague had little difficulty crossing the fragmented borders of Medieval Europe, after all, just from tiny little ports on the Black Sea.

- Does Istanbul count as Constantinople for the purposes of the scenario?
- What is the definition of the city? I presume that we would not be confined to the boundaries of the Theodosian walls, but looking at google maps, the actual city of Istanbul seems to be fairly sprawling across much of each side of the straits. The province of Istanbul is even larger, though the majority of the population does seem to be concentrated within the core area...
 
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