If you were looking at a pre-1914 POD.
A Greco-Turkish War April 1915.
The 1st Balkan war broke out on 18 Oct 1912 just after the Ottoman Empire had disbanded 120,000 troops station in Rumelia (Ottoman Europe) and redeployed 35,000 troops to Yemen. With the Ottoman Fleet operating against the Bulgarians until November, the Greeks occupied Lemnos from 21-27th Oct 1912 and went on to take Imbros, Thasos, Agios Efstratios, Samothrace, Psara and Ikaria by mid-November. Landings followed on Lesbos 21 Nov - 22 Dec and Chios 27 Nov with fighting lasting until 3 Jan 1913. The Ottoman Navy reacted to these two invasions on Dec 7 1912 by replacing their commander, Tahir Bey with Ramiz Naman Bey, the leader of the hawkish faction among the officer corps. On Dec 16 the Battle of Elli was fought and Ramiz Naman Bey was quickly replaced by the energetic Lt. Commander Rauf Bey as effective command of the Ottoman fleet on Dec 20. An indecisive action aborted a Turkish counter invasion on Tenedos on Jan 4 and the Battle of Lemnos followed on Jan 18. The final action of the war was Greece invading Samos on 13-16 March 1913.
The Treaty of Athens between the Ottoman Empire and Greece was not signed until November 14th 1913 following the conclusion of the 2nd Balkan war. It left Ioannina, Crete and Salonica to Greece, but the question of the Aegean islands was unresolved. It was expected that the Great Powers would arbitrate. However, the Ottomans were quite sick of the Great Powers lack of support and assistance by this stage and would not accept Greece holding the North Aegean islands. They openly declared that they would forcefully take back Chios and Lesbos in March-April 1915. This would be after the new battleships and crews had been worked up and before Salamis would be ready.
In 1914, Greece had a population of about 4.8m of which non-Greeks made up 13%. Greece's army was 7-8 Infantry Divisions and had a trend of spending £ 1.2m on defence. This was a burden of about 1.5% of GDP ( £ 78m).
The other factor Greece and Turkey had to consider in 1914 was Bulgaria. Bulgaria had 11 Infantry Divisions and 1 Cavalry Division, a GDP of 65m and was spending £ 1.55m on defense or 2.4% of GDP. Against Bulgaria, the Ottomans have deployed a large proportion of their army - 15 Divisions of the 1st Army (I-V Corps). In the east against Russia was the Ottoman 2nd Army of IX, X and XI Corps with 9 Divisions. To the south were the 2nd Army (Aleppo), 4th Army (Damascus & Mosul) and 6th Army (Baghdad) and the remaining 10 Divisions in the VI, VII, VIII, XII and XIII Corps.
Greeks were protesting in Athens over the persecution of Greek Orthodox subjects in Asia Minor along with restoration of confiscated property. The Ottomans replied that while it would address Greek complaints, the real blame for the unrest lay with the Balkan League for displacing Muslim refugees into Turkey. Viewing war as imminent, Turkish diplomats were trying to hammer out terms of an Ottoman-Bulgarian alliance directed against Athens.
The Greek plan...
The Greeks were buying up shipping on the London market and both sides were stockpiling Welsh steaming coal, this was regarded as a sure sign of war. The situation was so desperate that the Greek Navy was planning pre-emptive strike on the new Dreadnoughts. The C-in-C of the Greek Fleet, RN Admiral Mark Kerr had 'gone Native' and was risking his career by pressing his good friend First Sea Lord Battenburg about what were the legal implications were if Kerr became a Greek citizen to join the fight against the Turks. Russia even suggested that the new ships fly the White Ensign for their transfer and safe arrival. Newcastle to Constantinople was 2 weeks at 10 knots so Osman and Reşadiye would arrive by mid August although neither ship had a full crew.
The Greek Navy envisaged a surprise attack of 160,000 men to hold strategic areas and then negotiate from a position of strength. The navy was to be bolstered with 2 ex US Navy Battleships that arrived in July 1914.
The main features of the plan were:
- 20,000 men land and hold Alexandretta cutting the railway to the south and isolating the 10 Ottoman Infantry Divisions of the 2nd, 4th and 6th Armies.
- 30,000 men land at Aivali on the Gulf of Adramyti to block the troops stationed in the Smyrna Fortified Area from going north.
- 2 Regiments land at the rear of the Kum Kale fort, taking it and turning its guns on the Sedd-el-Bahr fort on the Gallipoli side.
- 80,000 men land from Gaba Tepe south on the Gallipoli peninsula and take the forts from the rear.
- 30,000 men with naval gunfire support, land and take the Belair lines at the narrow point of the peninsula. In 1914, these had crumbled and filled with water since they held the Bulgarians at bay in 1912.
The Ottoman 2nd Army was fixed on the Russian border and would take months to redeploy due to the lack of transport. The Bulair lines could only be attacked with whatever the Ottomans could spare from the perimeter facing the Bulgarians. The flaw in the plan was how the Bulgarians would react as the Greek plan relied of Bulgaria staying neutral.
Aegean Crisis
In late June 1914 Greek PM Venizelos decided to cancel his plans for a preemptive strike taking some factors into consideration:
- Serbia and Romania’s reluctance to safeguard Bulgaria’s neutrality in a Greek- Turkish war
- The negative attitude of the Great Powers.
- The Turkish threats for massacre of the entire Greek population in Asia Minor in case of a Greek-Turkish war.
Last, but not least the alleged re-establishment of Greece’s naval superiority in the Aegean Sea after the purchase of the two American battleships Idaho and Mississippi, now renamed Kilkis and Lemnos. Both ships were completed back in 1908 but still ranked as pre-dreadnoughts. Nevertheless, Venizelos seemed to believe that, even if Turkey got the two modern Sultan Osman and Reşadiye, the experience and the bravery of the skilled Greek sailors would tip the balance in favor of Greece in the case of a Greek-Turkish naval showdown.
Therefore, Venizelos opted for a peaceful settlement over the Greek- Turkish dispute, believing that he could negotiate from an advantageous position. He prepared a Draft Treaty of Peace and Reciprocal Protection that provided the defensive Greek-Turkish alliance for the preservation of the status-quo in the Balkans, a voluntary exchange of populations and the agreement that the disputed islands would become autonomous under Turkish formal suzerainty, but with a Greek governor- general.
Turkey valued an alliance with Bulgaria rather than the Greeks and once the new Turkish Dreadnoughts are ready then the Greek Navy will be outclassed and unable to hold the Aegean islands she gained in 1912-13. The Bulgarians and Ottomans quickly signed a non-aggression pact in August 1914 after the war started so the negotiations must have been going on for some time.