Constantine loses against Maxentius or Licinius

How would this affect later history? I assume it is quite possible that Christianity would never become the state religion of the Roman Empire.
 
First of all, I apoligize in advance for the immense post. It's just because I was actually thinking (and researching) about this PoD through this last months, and am happy to suddenly see it posted :p.

Ok, from what I've found out, Constantine I already had Christian sympaties even before Milvian Brigde (possibly due to the fact that his mother was already a devoted Christian), while neither Maxentius nor Licinius had a similar regard, so it's highly unlikely any of them will convert (neither would Galerius, if still alive).

From this observation, in the micro-historical aspect, I imagined two opposing outcomes:

(1) a single-minded Pagan autocrat renews the persecutions carried out during Diocletian's reign under Galerius (even if the religion had been legalized since 311 by the Edict of Toleration), perhaps to strenghten the Pagan institutions as a symbol of Imperial power (e.g. forcing Christians to offer sacrifice under pain of death). I doubt this will actually extinguish Christianity, but, depending on the scale will delay its momentum.

(2) Some later Emperor will effectively legalize it (similar to the Edict of Milan in 313). Either it will stop the bloodier phase of persecutions or (if antipathetic to the Christians) simply will bar non-pagans from certain offices (like Julian the Apostate tried to do). Even if this doesn't stops the Christian religion from expanding, it will reinforce their status as a peculiar cult, like Judaism.

That being said, it's arguable that the Constantinian dynasty's association with Christianity was a political move to reinforce the central authority of the Emperor... so, a likeminded Pagan sovereign will make serious efforts to structure the Pagan institutions as a mark of the Imperial rule, as Aurelian seemed to do, or Diocletian by his vinculation to Jupiter. After all, both Pagan and Christian Emperors were keen to claim legitimacy from the divine support.

I find it reasonable to think this renewed central religion will be emphasized on the Cult of Sol Invictus (as a Roman god, independent from its Syrian origins), with a possible effort to blend it with Mithraism - even if the cult of Mithras is a mystery religion, the official Imperial Cult will create fictious links between the beliefs (easier said than done, of course, but both Sol and Mithras were solar deities) to guarantee the adhesion of the military as a whole to this New Imperial/Solar Cult. I guess this strong Pagan Emperor might want to be blend the Cult of Isis as well, due to its popularity with the female population (or, better, with the Eastern peoples as a whole). If even OTL Christianity allegedly has some inspiration from Isis' cult, I'm sure a Roman Pagan system would try to integrate it.

The overall result is a mitigated polytheism. I don't believe it will become, at least not for a few centuries, a pure monotheist religion, but perhaps evolves into a flexible form of henotheism (worship of a single god while accepting the existence of other deities). I doubt it comes close to what Julian the Apostate tried, because he was much more influenced by the traditional Hellenic ideas, and had a philosophical inclination. Military-minded autocrats like Aurelian, Diocletian (and even Constantine himself) adopted religion not as a philosophy or a way of life, but as a means of ensuring the Imperial domination of the wordly affairs, promoting political, cultural and social cohesion to stabilize the Empire. Any ideas of divinity served to ensure the legitimacy of the Roman Emperor, so I find it probable that will stress the mainline Roman traditions instead of, for example, the archaic Greek, Syrian, Egyptian ones. Also, it will try to become more homogeneous, to promote unity, in opposition to the Classical Paganism which assimilated alien deities to their own pantheon.

On the effects on Christianity itself, I honestly doubt it prevents its internal divisions about theological inconsistencies. Perhaps it doesn't comes to a serious schism like Arianism or Nestorianism, but I hardly believe that Christianity will be (as seem from a Christian perspective) homogeneous. It's possible, regarding its neutral influence on the Roman affairs, that Christians won't adopt some Pagan features, and will try to distinguish themselves from the "Pagan culture" - like the Jews did since the diaspora, insulating themselves from every foreign culture. As a disclaimer, I doubt Christianity will see a similar development as OTL Judaism, simply because it was much more heterogeneous and had a number of adepts, while Jews were always a minority.

Another point I find extremely relevant was that Christianity by Constantine's reign was much more entreched on the eastern side of the Empire, and had a significant presence in the metropolei of the western half (Carthage, Milan, Rome itself), but Paganism was predominant. If the Empire experiences another division (either on purpose like Diocletian/Maximin or enforced, like Honorius/Arcadius), its much more probable, unless butterflies say otherwise, that the Eastern Empire becomes Christian (either a pagan Emperor is baptized or from an already Christian situation rises to power), while the Western Empire possibly remains Pagan. If the halves of the Empire eventually become hostile to each other, its reasonable to imagine that the religious differences will be emphasized (i.e. Christian vs. Pagan) :(

[Disclaimer: I don't follow the historiographical tradition that helds the adoption of Christianity as the cause of the fall of the Western Roman Empire. In this ATL Scenario, the fortunes of a Pagan Empire are still linked to the ripples of the Migration period. The Huns will come sooner or later, and the Germanic peoples will be inevitably pressed against the Roman borders].

Finally, regarding the Barbarian kingdoms, its out of question that they converted only because of the Roman sphere of influence, in a domino effect (just like the Bavarians converted under the Frankish suzerainty or the Bulgarians due to Byzantine influence). If I recall correctly, the first Germanic people to convert en masse were the Goths, by the late 4th Century, and eventually the Burgundians, Alamanni and etc.

In this "pagan" scenario, depending on the extent of the Christian discrimination by the Pagan authorities, I can fancy some outcomes:

(A) The Christians will be slowly driven to the fringes of the Roman world (a parallel, IOTL can be made with the Nestorians and Pelagians, after they were branded heretics, formed religious strongholds in the very frontiers of the Empire), and might come to contact with the Germanic/Iranian peoples. The Christian doctrine might be popular with lesser castes, but it's possible the Barbarian aristocracy will see little interest in abandoning their traditional beliefs to adopt a foreign religion that doesn't interests the Roman rulers. The conversion of a handful of tribal rulers will be the exception, rather than the rule, due to the more concentrated efforts of persuasive missionaries.

(B) On the other hand, the Barbarian rulers might be somewhat interested in Christianity (depending on the adhesion of their subjects) if it represents a symbolic opposition against the Roman Empire (like the Hungarians adopted Catholicism to avoid falling into the influence of the Byzantine/Bulgarian Orthodoxy). This is a fascinating scenario, imho, as TTL Christianity might become more Germanic-Pagan influenced than Mediterranean-Pagan. This, in turn, might jolt the Roman Empire to invest in the convertion of the tribes under their influence to the New Pagan/Solar Cult.

(C) Perhaps the Christian or Roman-Pagan influence upon the Barbarians is negligible (I find it more likely, because, unless due to serious political efforts, polytheism is not inclined to proselitism, due to its extremely incoherent nature). So this will be an alien world, with a marked division between the "civilized" Mediterranean/Hellenic-Pagan world, the Germanic bloc on the other side of the borders, with the eventual arrival of the Slavs and Turkic peoples to bolster the melting pot of Paganism in Europe :D
 
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I would have thought that if the Roman Empire continued to become Pagan, this would lead to a more heterogenous Christianity, as the Emperor was important in the making of what was to be considered "Orthodox" Christianity. When it comes to the Germanic kingdoms, I thought that the reason that they adopted Arian Christianity was that Arians were fleeing the Empire because of persecutions and that they, along with other branches of Christianity, were overrepresented outside the Empire. I must admit that my knowledge about this is a bit superficial, so this is just what I have assumed.
 
^^ Okay I really, REALLY want to see a timeline of this now. :D

(bump for interest)

I do want to see it as well :p I've been researching lately (about Sol Invictus, about the Tetrarchy, and so forth), because I wanted at least to sketch a timeline about a Pagan world where Christianity is a minority, but real life constraints keep me from doing so :(

Anyways, in my last post, I focused more on the religious aspect because I don't think there will be much change, in a couple centuries, regarding the military, political or economic repercussions.

The Roman Empire will still be plagued by civil wars. Provincial career-officers (mainly Illyrians, Thracians, Dalmatians and Gallo-Romans) will still be more likely to ascend to the purple. As far as I know, Gallia, Hispania and Illyricum were predominantly Roman-pagan, while Christianity was more popular in eastern regions, mainly Syria, Egypt and Armenia (which, so far, was the only official Christian nation in the world), so the Barracks Emperors will have little incentive to be baptized, even more if the proposed "reform" of the official Roman polytheism evolves into an instrument of political domination. Even if Christianity doesn't comes to be seem as inherently "foreign" as Judaism, it will not be attractive to military-minded rulers or the traditionalist aristocracy (while it will remain popular with the lower urban classes, women and slaves, because of its assurance of a better life after death).

I imagine the Empire sooner or later will experience a permanent administrative division. It was becoming progressively rare for Emperors to rule the whole nation alone, and they saw as necessary to divide the power, usually along the Western-Eastern half (to able to focus on the Persian menace and the Germanic raids on the Danube) - even before the Christianization (Valerian/Gallienus, Diocletian and the Tetrachy) or after it (Constantius II/Julian, Valentinian and Valens, and so forth).

If the Empire does suffer a permanent political division between the Western and Eastern nations, its much more likely that it happens a similar evolution as OTL regarding a language and cultural split (the East in the long run adopts Greek as official language and emphasizes its Hellenic legacy to distinguish itself from the Western Empire and from Persia). Egypt and Syria in the E.R.E. and Britain in the W.R.E. are also more likely to experience surges of proto-nationalism (I really try to avoid using this term, but those regions had fundamental cultural and social differences from the "nucleus" of the Roman civilization), and might grow into hostile internal dissent.

Also, its good to remember that Constantine I promoted some administrative and military reforms, continuing Diocletian's work. If he's defeated/killed in the civil wars, some later Emperor (possibly Licinius, he seemed groomed to rule, instead of Maxentius) will want to strenghten their predecessors' reforms. The Praetorian Guard might continue existing in Rome, but as a relic of its former self, just like the city of Rome. By Constantine I it was already more or less ignored as a centre of power, probably the Imperial court will relocate to Medionalum or some other north-italian metropolis.

I forgot to write it in the last post, but its more likely that Constantinople is not founded as the new capital. In the eastern half, the administrative center will probably remain in Nicomedia (which was already preferred by Diocletian as his personal seat of power).

Regarding the Barbarian invasions, there's a number of butterflies, but we'd do well to remember that Adrianople was a succession of mistakes that could have been avoided. Considering that it was Gothic invasion that "opened" the path to the Germanic advances in the Danube, perhaps we can delay invasions. I really think the W.R.E. can be saved from complete collapse, even if some Germanic tribes (more probably on the Rhine than on the Danube) manage to eat up some provinces in Gaul or Helvetia. Britannia will be sooner or later evacuated if the Germanic pressure in the Rhine frontier becomes too great. The same is true about Dacia, as Constantine I was the last Emperor that tried some serious effort to keep those territories against the Sarmatians. In the Eastern frontier, the perpetual state of war against Persia is inevitable, unless the Sassanid dynasty itself its deposed.

Needless to say, in the long run, that Islam will be butterflied away (as it pressuposes some Christian influence in the Arabian Peninsula), while Christianity remains strong in Armenia, Georgia and Abyssinia (which by the 4th Century already adopted it).
 
We just need to find someone who would be willing to make a timeline out of this. And we would advise said person.
 
I'd be on board for that (at least lurking, possibly advising) for sure. :)
Thought I have also been looking into a failed christian takeover of the empire, all I have is very superficial so far. Also, I'm a master lurker, mostly.
 
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