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I guess many in here, especially Dutch and Indonesian members of the board, are already aware about Aceh War, lasted from 1873-1904. Several things were behind this war : the question of Dutch sovereignty/influence over Sumatra that conflicted British commercial interests on the island, and the rising economy of Aceh through their pepper industry that was able to supply most of world pepper demand at that time, that threatened Dutch newly formed plantations in Sumatra back then. It was triggered by Acehnese understandably relentless attempt to build relations with western nations in order to counter the Dutch, including with that of Ottoman Empire. The Dutch certainly resented it, and tried to counter Acehnese efforts everytime they could. With regards to Ottoman Empire, the Dutch were among the ones that encouraged Russian invasion into Ottoman Empire in 1877...

IOTL, that Russo-Ottoman War ended in Ottoman devastating defeat. Prior to that war, Ottomans actually had the 3rd largest navy in the world that time, and also a respectable veteran army. Had they won the war, they could have had retained that navy and army. It also thrown them back into absolute autocracy under Abdul Hamid II.

With the progress of technology with time, OE being not so much of an industrial power will be left behind quite fast by leading powers such as Germany, Britain and France. However, when faced with minor navy such as Netherlands, which also wasn't much of an industrial nation as well, it should be a potent threat.

By this point I think you can already figure the direction I'm currently heading. Mid-19th century period was the time when Pan-Islamism was beginning to emerge, and Aceh had quite a role in boosting the trend. It became a sound issue when the Ottomans first heard of Acehnese request for help (first after centuries), so much that an Ottoman Caliph (Abdul Aziz) got overthrown in part due to his perceived incapability and lack of will to liberate the newly re-discovered Ottoman vassal in the east. Aspiration for liberation of Aceh continued to live post-1878 until all was to late even IOTL, but it was under constant stamping down by Hamidiyan regime's censorship.

With Ottoman Empire manages to fend off Russian invasion, she would retain both the navy (largely) and general military power, and the infant constitutional parliamentary democracy that IOTL got stomped down after Ottoman defeat. That means quite greater freedom of aspiration, which in turn enable intense popular pressure for the government to commit in Pan-Islamism, and a navy that should be able to enable goverment to pursue that in one way or another. It won't be the most likely outcome, but suppose that OE gets chance to save Aceh one way or another. Say, maybe at a point the British gets distracted by more pressing issue of the war with the Boers sometime around late 19th century, OE gets the chance to actually launch an outright expedition to Sumatra to save Aceh from obliteration by the Dutch, and comes out successful. Or maybe OE manages to get the British pressure the Dutch to cease their occupation of Aceh. Or maybe another way.....

First, besides impacting DEI directly, this loss will certainly going to shake Den Haag, and then it will thourougly impact the whole Dutch empire. Second, it will serve Aceh as an excellent regional HQ for Pan-Islamist movement in the region. I'm pretty sure that the NEI authority won't going take this kindly at all. Third, all of these would precede the time when Ethical Policy and all that followed it, including the birth of Indonesian nationalism by Indische Party, emerged IOTL. Pretty much the basis for ATL's *Indonesian nationalism has been overwritten. Increased Islamic influence that precedes Ethical Policy will create a big difference in how the intellectual and elite community in *Indonesia would develop down the line. Maybe we will see earlier Sarekat Islam this way? With the political reshuffle caused by the loss in Aceh, that should result in government change, and it will pretty much overwrite Dutch colonial history in NEI from that point onwards. By such being the case, will there be even something like Ethical Policy at all ? Or will it be delayed, and with different nature, maybe with less idealistic emphasize, etc ?

Ultimately, with all those factor in question, how will ATL Indonesia develop down the line ?
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