Consequences of surviving Aceh Sultanate /this way/ on *Indonesia

Wankiewank.

So the Ottomans depriving a weak power of a tiny corner of Sumatra is a "wank"? Isn't that a bit ridiculous? The Dutch took 40 years to subdue Aceh, and even then, never managed it completely. We're not talking about the Ottoman fleet sailing to Batavia with the inhabitants tossing roses at their feet, we're talking about them preventing the Dutch from achieving victory where they hadn't yet. If that's a "wank", it's far less of a wank than the Dutch ending up with the whole archipelago, which is about as ASB and wankiewank as it gets.

The reality is that the Dutch have no naval forces in the NEI larger than a small unarmored cruiser, and lots of old small gunboats - they have no means to repel even a small squadron of warships. They couldn't subdue Aceh with the forces at their disposal, so do you think they could do it with an Ottoman division and lots of aid to the Achinese in addition? There's no way to fight in Aceh without naval supremacy, and the Dutch hold on Sumatra is pretty tenuous. They are simply in a bad position here. The can fight, in which case they will suffer numerous defeats, which would further damage their prestige and threaten their hold on the entire archipelago, or they can accept the situation.
 
Nice to see you back, even if it is only for this.

I assume that you think that Aceh would become much closer to the Ottomans then just being in their sphere of influence. How likely is it that it will actually become a part of the Ottoman Empire fully? And what would this do for Pan-Islamism?
 
Nice to see you back, even if it is only for this.

I assume that you think that Aceh would become much closer to the Ottomans then just being in their sphere of influence. How likely is it that it will actually become a part of the Ottoman Empire fully? And what would this do for Pan-Islamism?

I was thinking it would be an autonomous province, with foreign policy and the military under central authority; with Ottoman backing, Aceh would become more centralized than it was historically before the Dutch invasion.

Pan-Islamism is generally overblown. The West always feared it (and still do), but it's not much more potent than some idea of "pan-Christianism". Note that even Imperial Federation didn't work, even between Anglo-Saxon settler colonies. I think what it would do, though, is make the Ottomans the magnetic pole for decolonization, especially once the empire begins to rack in oil wealth.

Pan-Islamism would be a factor, creating sympathy and a feeling of connection, but Muslim regions have no desire to exchange one imperial master for another. Ottoman rule would have to be light and non-exploitative.

If you guys have never read about the North Borneo Company, you should - it's really fascinating.

You would think a chartered company with responsibility to shareholders would be rapacious, but it was actually perhaps the most responsible, humane, and conscientious colonial state ever founded. The management early on decided to establish order and infrastructure, and then make money through surpluses on taxation of economic developments encouraged by a favorable atmosphere. Also, being very weak with regard to force, it couldn't afford to be arrogant or overbearing, so it worked closely with the natives and brought them into the administration through relationships of mutual advantage. If not for the devastating and brutal Japanese occupation, Sabah would be one of the richest places in Asia. This is one of those rare cases of positive imperialism, and ironically it was done through pure capitalism and private enterprise.

Initially, perpetual leases were acquired by a German in Hapsburg service, Baron von Overbeek, which opens up in the interesting possibility of an Austrian chartered company - that would be cool.
 
If you guys have never read about the North Borneo Company, you should - it's really fascinating.

You would think a chartered company with responsibility to shareholders would be rapacious, but it was actually perhaps the most responsible, humane, and conscientious colonial state ever founded. The management early on decided to establish order and infrastructure, and then make money through surpluses on taxation of economic developments encouraged by a favorable atmosphere. Also, being very weak with regard to force, it couldn't afford to be arrogant or overbearing, so it worked closely with the natives and brought them into the administration through relationships of mutual advantage. If not for the devastating and brutal Japanese occupation, Sabah would be one of the richest places in Asia. This is one of those rare cases of positive imperialism, and ironically it was done through pure capitalism and private enterprise.

Interesting. I personally know fairly little of that areas history, but have read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dogs_of_War_(novel) which the protagonists buy a shell company -- an old widower whose then far older husband of the North Borneo Company got killed by rebellious and starved coolies slaves. They made the company look like a real plantation. Someday I will have to do some research on this subject to see how the truth wedges into reality and fiction. I am a strong believer in free enterprise, but see a discrepency here.

Also of note, it was the site of possibly the worst western allied POW situation at Sandakan, where out of about 2,ooo Australians and 3,ooo Indonesians, only a half dozen escapees survived the final 1945 death march, although this has very little or nothing seemingly to do with the company. Ditto for when they also burned down the town of Jessleton in 1941/2 so to deny it for Japanese use.
 
What ?? You're back this soon ?? You're ruining my plan !! :mad:

;):D


Thanks for actually coming here, Pasha. I was rather reluctant to even post the link to this thread in our PM channel since I thought you are still not in the mood for coming back here....


So I think the controversy over Pasha's scenario has now been settled out. I initially thought his scenario as a rather bit too ambitious myself, but I don't think he will go with what he has if he cannot cover it up. I actually planned for an Aceh survival scenario myself for my TL, though a softer one, without any blatant Ottoman intervention, and largely diplomatic. I aimed for an earlier end of war though, about 1888-1894. Now I think it's my scenario that is less likely.....

Either way, Aceh survival through Ottoman efforts would give inspiration for Indonesian muslims which would trouble the Dutch position throughout the archipelago. The Dutch cannot afford to respond to it recklessly. If we go with Pasha's scenario, I guess the wave of Pan-islamist euphoria will add a different dimension to the ATL's *Ethical Policy. In short, the Dutch would try their best to appease the muslims post Aceh-War, and it can possibly drive them to draw some examples from British approach in India. This will be intriguing indeed, and I guess it will also effect the colonial policy towards the Indies' Chinese communities, especially the ones with direct point of frictions with urban muslims...
 
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What ?? You're back this soon ?? You're ruining my plan !! :mad:

;):D


Thanks for actually coming here, Pasha. I was rather reluctant to even post the link to this thread in our PM channel since I thought you are still not in the mood for coming back here....


So I think the controversy over Pasha's scenario has now been settled out. I initially thought his scenario as a rather bit too ambitious myself, but I don't think he will go with what he has if he cannot cover it up. I actually planned for an Aceh survival scenario myself for my TL, though a softer one, without any blatant Ottoman intervention, and largely diplomatic. I aimed for an earlier end of war though, about 1888-1894. Now I think it's my scenario that is less likely.....

Either way, Aceh survival through Ottoman efforts would give inspiration for Indonesian muslims which would trouble the Dutch position throughout the archipelago. The Dutch cannot afford to respond to it recklessly. If we go with Pasha's scenario, I guess the wave of Pan-islamist euphoria will add a different dimension to the ATL's *Ethical Policy. In short, the Dutch would try their best to appease the muslims post Aceh-War, and it can possibly drive them to draw some examples from British approach in India. This will be intriguing indeed, and I guess it will also effect the colonial policy towards the Indies' Chinese communities, especially the ones with direct point of frictions with urban muslims...

As I was saying, the Ottoman position would be very limited and legalistic, aimed specifically at Aceh, where the Dutch position is ambiguous and problematic: they don't have an effective blockade, they invaded with no casus belli, and their occupation of the East Coast dependencies was based on a flimsy legal fiction that they belonged to Siak. The Ottomans would absolutely not use pan-Islamic ideological weaponry or encourage any risings elsewhere, as that would open a can of worms that would not end well. The Dutch are certainly going to have problems, especially in Sumatra, and maybe rumblings in Java and elsewhere, but unless they attempt to prolong the struggle, I don't think there's anything they can't handle. At least for the short-to-medium term.

There is some risk to intervention, but it would hugely increase Ottoman prestige in the Islamic world and make it harder for the Powers to disregard their treaties with the Ottomans as they did rather casually in OTL.

Remember that we're talking about a much stronger Ottoman Empire in this scenario. It still holds the Balkans, has a territorial presence on the Indian Ocean, a reasonably potent navy, and has successfully survived a Russian invasion.

It was the crushing losses of the Treaty of Berlin that led the Powers to believe Ottoman collapse was immanent (as in any day now). Before that, Ottoman rule was considered desirable, as treaty relationships limited Ottoman tariffs, gave Europeans huge tax advantages, and essentially allowed them to reap the economic rewards of empire without having to bear the administrative costs.

It's further down the line, perhaps in the 1920s, where the consequences of this start to snowball.

As for Sabah, I was considering the possibility that if it's an Austrian company, upon ignition of a general European war it might reincorporate as an Ottoman company, to remain neutral, forestall a British occupation, and allow it to continue to operate with its international staff, largely Austro-Hungarian and British. Not really an Ottoman possession, just a private company incorporated in Istanbul, probably directed by boards in Vienna and London, much like the Imperial Ottoman Bank was run by committees in Paris and London.
 
1) As I was saying, the Ottoman position would be very limited and legalistic, aimed specifically at Aceh, where the Dutch position is ambiguous and problematic: they don't have an effective blockade, they invaded with no casus belli, and their occupation of the East Coast dependencies was based on a flimsy legal fiction that they belonged to Siak. The Ottomans would absolutely not use pan-Islamic ideological weaponry or encourage any risings elsewhere, as that would open a can of worms that would not end well. The Dutch are certainly going to have problems, especially in Sumatra, and maybe rumblings in Java and elsewhere, but unless they attempt to prolong the struggle, I don't think there's anything they can't handle. At least for the short-to-medium term.

There is some risk to intervention, but it would hugely increase Ottoman prestige in the Islamic world and make it harder for the Powers to disregard their treaties with the Ottomans as they did rather casually in OTL.

Remember that we're talking about a much stronger Ottoman Empire in this scenario. It still holds the Balkans, has a territorial presence on the Indian Ocean, a reasonably potent navy, and has successfully survived a Russian invasion.

It was the crushing losses of the Treaty of Berlin that led the Powers to believe Ottoman collapse was immanent (as in any day now). Before that, Ottoman rule was considered desirable, as treaty relationships limited Ottoman tariffs, gave Europeans huge tax advantages, and essentially allowed them to reap the economic rewards of empire without having to bear the administrative costs.

It's further down the line, perhaps in the 1920s, where the consequences of this start to snowball.

2) As for Sabah, I was considering the possibility that if it's an Austrian company, upon ignition of a general European war it might reincorporate as an Ottoman company, to remain neutral, forestall a British occupation, and allow it to continue to operate with its international staff, largely Austro-Hungarian and British. Not really an Ottoman possession, just a private company incorporated in Istanbul, probably directed by boards in Vienna and London, much like the Imperial Ottoman Bank was run by committees in Paris and London.

1) Oh, I already got it now Pasha, clearly enough. People without sufficient hindsight though, will always be cautious on putting the maximum bar of Ottoman Empire to high, even for the Phillo-Ottomans. That's just how OTL has been since more than a century ago......

I didn't mean the Ottomans would actively further fanning anti-colonial sentiment in Indonesia beyond Aceh, but victory in Aceh will certainly result in Pan-Islamist euphoria throughout the region that later escalates into rumbling here and there, as you've pointed out yourself. Yes, the Dutch should be perfectly able to put them down, but now with a Pan-Islamist HQ just before the front gate, they will be ever cautious of the next potential Pan-Islamist-inspired unrests. That would probably drive them to friendlier stance towards Islam, and thus they will may become interested to study the British example on their approach in India, and then apply some in their own jewel of the empire.

2) Why did the company start Austrian ITTL instead of British like IOTL ? Was it as possible to become Austrian even IOTL ?
 
1) Oh, I already got it now Pasha, clearly enough. People without sufficient hindsight though, will always be cautious on putting the maximum bar of Ottoman Empire to high, even for the Phillo-Ottomans. That's just how OTL has been since more than a century ago......

I didn't mean the Ottomans would actively further fanning anti-colonial sentiment in Indonesia beyond Aceh, but victory in Aceh will certainly result in Pan-Islamist euphoria throughout the region that later escalates into rumbling here and there, as you've pointed out yourself. Yes, the Dutch should be perfectly able to put them down, but now with a Pan-Islamist HQ just before the front gate, they will be ever cautious of the next potential Pan-Islamist-inspired unrests. That would probably drive them to friendlier stance towards Islam, and thus they will may become interested to study the British example on their approach in India, and then apply some in their own jewel of the empire.

2) Why did the company start Austrian ITTL instead of British like IOTL ? Was it as possible to become Austrian even IOTL ?

2) Yes. Baron von Overbeek was the originator of the project, the Austrian consul in Hong Kong. He was unable to get enough interest in Austria to get things going, most likely due to ongoing difficulties in Bosnia, which doesn't happen in this TL. The capital of the company would be mostly British and Austrian, and it would be chartered in Vienna. Or if we want to be weird, it could be a Hungarian company.
 
By the way...

Is there anyone here who knows how the Dutch politics was during this period ? Surely a failure in Aceh will result in some governmental changes in Den Haag....
 
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Is there anyone here who knows how the Dutch politics was during this period ? Surely a failure in Aceh will result in some governmental changes in Den Haag....
Well, you do have to remember that the Netherlands, like most countries at that time, was barely a democracy, and a very factional one were religion and philosophy were better indicators of voting pattern than politics. While it would probably lead to political problems and probably new elections and a few goverment changes, balance of power was determined by demographics more than anything else.

But, hey, what do I know. The Dutch didn't bother to learn anything about Indonesia back then. :rolleyes:
 
Well, you do have to remember that the Netherlands, like most countries at that time, was barely a democracy, and a very factional one were religion and philosophy were better indicators of voting pattern than politics. While it would probably lead to political problems and probably new elections and a few goverment changes, balance of power was determined by demographics more than anything else.

But, hey, what do I know. The Dutch didn't bother to learn anything about Indonesia back then. :rolleyes:

I don't think that attitude was called for.... I really was asking about political situation in the Netherlands at the time and how it would be effected by this event.... Eventhough countries at the time were not liberal democracies of present day's sense, I would think the impact of loss in Aceh would be big enough on the political make up in the Dutch parliament, or at least on how the top dogs in rule there would direct things later. That in turn, would probably effect Dutch national and colonial policies later....

If you have any problem with Pasha's remark, refute it directly to him. Though personally I don't think your respective points are contrary with each other. You said that Netherlands eventually tried to understand Islam and Acehnese culture, while Pasha said they never attempted that until late 1890s.....
 
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But, hey, what do I know. The Dutch didn't bother to learn anything about Indonesia back then. :rolleyes:

Look, there's no need to be a dick. This is pure troll posting. The Netherlands had very little knowledge of Aceh and how it worked, and Hurgronje's understanding of the place wasn't only absent, it was totally wrong. The Dutch operated under the idea that Aceh was a centralized polity operating under the authority of a Sultan, which could be conquered by occupying the capital. When they did, that's all they controlled for the next 30 years. They attempted to rule through the Uleebalang, who they misinterpreted as chiefs, when they were actually merchants, transforming them into feudal potentates, which generated massive hostility in the population, which had never been subject to them before.

Hurgronje's strategy was to attack the Ulema, who were actually practical leaders, and by doing so destroyed a moderating force that could have facilitated raproachment with Dutch administration.

In any case, his role is largely legend, fostered by an agenda to hide what really happened under a veneer of conquest by intellectual study. What defeated Aceh was not Hurgronje, who's entire knowledge of Aceh came from talking to a couple of pilgrims in Mecca, but Van Huetsz' effective counter-insurgency campaign.

The idea that the Dutch understood what they were doing with Acehnese society is ludicrous given that it took 40 years to subdue a minor land with only a few hundred thousand inhabitants.
 
I don't think that attitude was called for.... I really was asking about political situation in the Netherlands at the time and how it would be effected by this event.... Eventhough countries at the time were not liberal democracies of present day's sense, I would think the impact of loss in Aceh would be big enough on the political make up in the Dutch parliament, or at least on how the top dogs in rule there would direct things later. That in turn, would probably effect Dutch national and colonial policies later....

If you have any problem with Pasha's remark, refute it directly to him. Though personally I don't think your respective points are contrary with each other. You said that Netherlands eventually tried to understand Islam and Acehnese culture, while Pasha said they never attempted that until late 1890s.....

Yes, but what we actually wrote can't be allowed to get in the way of troll-posting. Apparently the only interpretation of what I wrote was that the Dutch knew nothing at all about anything anywhere in Indonesia, ever.

:rolleyes: Indeed.
 
I guess I will have to save the Dutch question for later...

Another curiosity of mine : as I've said, I have my own Aceh-survival scenario in my own TL-in-planning, but this one is without direct military intervention, but through diplomatic intrigue, at least that's what I've been intending to go with, and also that it ends the Aceh War earlier. Pasha, do you think Dutch can be made to end their war against Aceh approximately a decade sooner then your scenario ? There were no small problems surrounding Dutch campaign as you've said : very weak legitimacy and justification for the war and also that they overstretched their resources pretty bad, also unfavorable opinion of the war both in homeland and abroad. Despite that though, I think that to drive the British away completely from the Dutch's cause there would really require British isolation from the rest of Europe. Do you think that it can happen during 1880s ?
 
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I guess I will have to save the Dutch question for later...

Another curiosity of mine : as I've said, I have my own Aceh-survival scenario in my own TL-in-planning, but this one is without direct military intervention, but through diplomatic intrigue, at least that's what I've been intending to go with, and also that it ends the Aceh War earlier. Pasha, do you think Dutch can be made to end their war against Aceh approximately a decade sooner then your scenario ? There were no small problems surrounding Dutch campaign as you've said : very weak legitimacy and justification for the war and also that they overstretched their resources pretty bad, also unfavorable opinion of the war both in homeland and abroad. Despite that though, I think that to drive the British away completely from the Dutch's cause there would really require British isolation from the rest of Europe. Do you think that it can happen during 1880s ?

I think it would be incredibly hard for the Dutch to abandon the campaign in Aceh. The best POD would have been at the very beginning, when the Dutch abolished the Sultanate and annexed Aceh. That was a horrible and costly mistake. I suppose it's possible that they could have reinstated the Achinese Sultan and established a protectorate, but that would be a pretty questionable reversal.
 
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