Consequences of Operation Crusader being defeated?

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Deleted member 1487

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Crusader
Historically the Brits nearly bungled their major relief effort of Tobruk in November-December 1941 and any number of PODs could have had them lose, rather than successfully push Rommel back to his March 1941 starting position. So what if they had? Let's say they lose their nerve, as nearly happened, and pull back before suffering irrepairable damage to their forces and leave Rommel still besieging Tobruk as of December 1941, but with both sides terribly bloodied from the fighting and Rommel in control of the battlefield and able to recover and repair AFVs. What now? Toburk is no closer to falling, Malta is inflicting catestrophic losses to Axis shipping, resulting in the lowest money of supplies arriving in Libya (December 1941) since the war began, though that would be changed quickly due to the arrival of Kesselring and his air fleet. Rommel cannot invade Egypt. It is still stalemate, but now, at least temporarily, with Rommel nearly out of supplies of ammo and fuel and the Brits having convinced themselves they lost a major battle and cannot attack against for months. Certainly Cunningham, commander of the 8th army would be getting fired and perhaps the recently appointed Auchinleck, CiC of Middle East Command, might get the boot too. What do both sides do after yet another British defeat and the status quo being temporarily maintained?
 
If this were to happen the Brits are gonna need to step up their game if they want to stay ahead of shedule. Because Rommel is going to push for Egypt, at least to El Alamein and secure his positions, well. Also, Operation hercules might get the go ahead. This could spell trouble for the British and any plans for a counter in Egypt might be delayed to defend Malta.
 

Deleted member 1487

If this were to happen the Brits are gonna need to step up their game if they want to stay ahead of shedule. Because Rommel is going to push for Egypt, at least to El Alamein and secure his positions, well. Also, Operation hercules might get the go ahead. This could spell trouble for the British and any plans for a counter in Egypt might be delayed to defend Malta.
The Brits are pretty much unable to unless they get reinforcements soon and Churchill will probably have a freakout given that he fired generals over the failure of Operation Battle Axe in June. Rommel is still locked down in the siege of Tobruk, but still has really awful supply situation due to Malta attacking Italian shipping; the Luftwaffe wouldn't relieve that situation until January and his supply situation wouldn't recover until February IIRC. The Battle of the Gazala Line only happened in May, while the supply situation would be rougher further east, so Rommel at the soonest would be lucky to be able to attack Tobruk in June 1942; the Brits might be able to go a round two before then. Perhaps might we see the Crusader result delayed and Rommel never able to invade Egypt at all? It would be ironic that a British victory earlier on in 1942 might allow Rommel to fall back into Tunisia more easily come November, with more equipment and men then being worn down at Alamein since July.
 
If Rommel is still at Tobruk and beyond the potency of Malta won't last long, it was horrendously difficult to supply when the Axis held the Benghazi bulge.
 

Deleted member 1487

If Rommel is still at Tobruk and beyond the potency of Malta won't last long, it was horrendously difficult to supply when the Axis held the Benghazi bulge.
It was able to be supplied despite Rommel holding Benghazi from March-December 1941 and February-November 1942 IOTL, which was in large part a function of the Luftwaffe leaving in May and winding down operations in April. It certainly was a LOT harder to supply it with Benghazi in Axis hands, but hardly impossible. Now if the LW was there in force...that was a problem.
 
It was able to be supplied despite Rommel holding Benghazi from March-December 1941 and February-November 1942 IOTL, which was in large part a function of the Luftwaffe leaving in May and winding down operations in April. It certainly was a LOT harder to supply it with Benghazi in Axis hands, but hardly impossible. Now if the LW was there in force...that was a problem.

What was the offensive power of Malta like during that period? The RN modified minelaying submarines and larger P class boats for magic carpet missions and also used fast minelayers and other warships to provide a minimum of supply to the island.
 

Deleted member 1487

What was the offensive power of Malta like during that period? The RN modified minelaying submarines and larger P class boats for magic carpet missions and also used fast minelayers and other warships to provide a minimum of supply to the island.
From the peak supplies of June 1941 (over 125,000 tons of supplies arrived in Libya) by December 1941 only about 19,000 tons of supplies had arrived to Libya. So it was pretty crushing:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Malta_(World_War_II)#Allied_offensive
 
Of course not having to sustain Malta arguably frees up British assets (particularly RN but also RAF) to do other things. There is a reason Corelli Barnett calls it the "Verdun of Maritime Warfare."
 

Deleted member 1487

Of course not having to sustain Malta arguably frees up British assets (particularly RN but also RAF) to do other things. There is a reason Corelli Barnett calls it the "Verdun of Maritime Warfare."
I'm not saying Malta would be lost, in fact unless Operation Pedestal changes it would have the same fate as IOTL.
 

Deleted member 1487

So after Sonnenblume the Axis managed to get a lot of supplies over but the British clawed their way back during the next 6 months?
From January to June the Axis was largely able to suppress Malta (there were some hiccups in April), but in July Malta got it's groove back so to speak. In April the Brits had some success, wiping out an entire Axis convoy, but the naval forces that conducted that mission were sent to Crete in May. From June or July offensive forces returned once the Luftwaffe forces departed Sicily for other areas (Barbarossa for Stukas, some units already had moved to Africa to help Rommel, the rest went to Greece/Crete after VIII Fliegerkorps left for Poland for Barbarossa after Crete fell) starting in May, though operations dropped off from April on. Then the Brits murdered Axis supply lines, dropping Axis supply to Libya well below all requirements. Rommel was pushed back to his jump off point in December-January with the OTL successful Operation Crusader where he recovered until the Luftwaffe's 2nd Air Fleet arrived after departing the Eastern Front and Kesselring organized the big suppression effort on Malta that nearly forced it to surrender in September 1942, but Operation Pedestal arrived in August with heavy losses after at least one (maybe two I don't recall right now) other convoy was turned back by Axis air and naval forces. IOTL in December 1941-January 1942 before Rommel pushed back British ground forces to Gazala the Brits didn't really use the Benghazi area to supply or support Malta AFAIK.
 
any ideas on what the supply requirements of DAK were had they simply fortified themselves in Tripolitania vs. "on the march?"
 
If the axis could not take Malta, could they take Gozo? It is only about fifty miles from Sicily. If the Germans still had air control in June, they should be able to take it. How long cold they hold it? Would it be like the Channel Islands. And how bad will it be for the British if the axis held Gozo?
 
You would think the Germans would gain from:

a) Benghazi not being lost temporarily. (damage needing to be repaired, damage to local light rail, etc.)
b) No loss of Bardia and Halfaya garrisons
c) continued use of Bardia as a port.

Perhaps this compensates for increase in length of supply lines.

A side effect is that the British don't extend their rail to Tobruk, the Germans can't mistakingly think it will be useful for supply purposes.

Likely I think the Germans just take Tobruk some time in the spring (perhaps the British just evacuate, perhaps not) and then take Malta, holding on to the frontier line which is a pretty decent defensive position. For supply: Big stuff gets into Benghazi, little stuff goes via MFP and Siebel ferry and other coastal shipping into Tobruk and Bardia.
 
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