What would be the impact on French politics, and on the world events of the time (terrorism, I think about ISIS, rise of populism in Europe and elsewhere in the world) if Nicolas Sarkozy had been re-elected in 2012?
As Hollande Presidency destroyed the Socialist Party a second Sarkozy term would destroyed The Republicans, with him and his Prime Minister Francois Fillon exposed as corrupted. His attempts to intervene in Lybia would be disastrous and widely tainted by his former connections with Gheddafi.
Populism in France would be strengthened as many right-wing voters would vote Le Pen but she would be defeated in runoff by Socialist candidate, probably Arnaud Monteburg or Martine Aubry.
Macron would be butterflied away: he used all the rotte in Holland presidency to gain experience as minister and politics and then he left the fast sinking ship in 2016 to create En Marche and sweep the election.
He might be candidate in 2022 if a socialist win in 2017.
That ATL 2017 election could be awfully toxic: les Republicains and PS are agonizing and both face their worst nightmare: Melenchon and Le Pen. No En Marche to give some limited fresh air among these four...