Consequences of an Oda Shogunate

Pretty much. It would seem just better not to invaded Korea. (Sure, Oda himself thought about it, but it was Hideyoshi crazy idea to try and conquer China, with Korea as a springboard in that plan.) It was such a waste, a waste of silver first off. Everyone wins. Japan avoids the casualties of the war, Korea is undevasted, and the Ming can very well survive. Everyone wins!

However, BellaGerant has made some very good points on how Japan could win in Korea under Nobunaga.

Well, it was a waste for sure. But it was a waste Japan at the time could really use to "burn out" it internal oversupply of militancy and the power bases of local military leaders with a political training in the Warring States model. If you don't tire out the men with pointy sticks long enough to state-build back in the home islands, there was a very real chance the Oda would face a similar upstart to themselves
 
Well, actually, they did something about IOTL. King Sebastian banned Japanese and Chinese slave trade in 1571. I imagine that it likely continued to be done ilegally, but the ban must surely have had an impact. Maybe with better relations between Portugal and Japan under the Oda the law can be better enforced.



These are very good points. We would likely still have the Dutch trading in Japan ITTL. Still, I don't see many convertions to protestantism happening.The Dutch were never very adamant about spreading their religion.

Hideyoshi made his complaint to the Portuguese in 1585, the only way the law can be enforced is if the Christian daimyo are defeated, or cowed which would not take much.

Well, it was a waste for sure. But it was a waste Japan at the time could really use to "burn out" it internal oversupply of militancy and the power bases of local military leaders with a political training in the Warring States model. If you don't tire out the men with pointy sticks long enough to state-build back in the home islands, there was a very real chance the Oda would face a similar upstart to themselves

I never really bought into the need to burn out militancy. Nobunaga has both the power and legitimacy to stop anyone who would dare rise against him, and a stable Oda succession with no Honnoji prevents breakaway powers from officers. The big question is what does Nobunaga to the larger Daimyo like the Mori or Hojo.
 
"The Portuguese tended to be rather cutthroat"

I see that traditional Protestant prejudices continue to predominate among certain users.

Don't go there, I'm Roman Catholic myself. There's a difference between the Black Legend and the Portuguese colonial authorities actually having trouble in not exploiting any situations for their own perceived gain, even where it was beneficial not to. The Kingdom of Kongo and Ethiopia had their issues with the Portuguese for a reason, even if wasn't sanction from the King.
 
Nobunaga may not have gone to the socially immobilizing lengths Hideyoshi and the Tokugawa went to OTL to ensure a peaceful realm (rigid statuses, tying peasants to the land, making things harder for merchants, etc);in the aftermath of the Sengoku Jidai, it wasn't out of the question for Japan to go through a kind of "capitalist revolution" (precursor to industrial revolution), advancing the country and the world by who knows how much. Alas, the desire for peace and stability understandably led to a conservative turn, for better or worse.
Well like I said, I completely understand the reasoning behind the style of government implemented by the Tokugawa shogunate. I'm only saying that, particularly at the dawn of Japanese unification, it was not the only feasible way to bind the country together, establish peace, and preserve order. Religious toleration* does not invariably lead to chaos; allowing peasants to move about (provided they're still disarmed) may lead to fewer taxes in the short term, but allow for more efficient agriculture and growth in the longer term;** and even if policies like forbidding foreign travel are based on the desire to keep peace, they did isolate Japan (with all the problems that entailed) and can quite reasonably be seen as an overreaction (if an understandable one).

So yes, Oda can create a different solution to this, and in some ways his reforms, would have to resemble Hideyoshi's -- he's still going to want (and need) to conduct a census, collect taxes, and disarm the population, for example. But more aggressively conservative policies like tying the peasants to the land, restricting foreign travel, or clamping down on foreigners and Christianity -- policies like those boiled down to trading off future prospects for modest immediate gains or risk curbing. A less cautiously minded shogun may well have found these less appealing.

It would also help a huge deal if the ultimate solution to "excess" samurai got Japan something more than a disastrous war in Korea; better still if they can be used to establish successful *colonies* for Japan, which also helps with the above problems. (For example, Japan may feel less need for taking drastic measures against "idle" peasants if they have a convenient place to send them.)

*not the modern liberal idea of "freedom of conscience", but the more timeless idea that persecution is generally more trouble than it's worth
**and no, this analysis wasn't invented by Adam Smith
Nobunaga would not have the weaknesses of Hideyoshi or Ieyasu, so no need for their stringency or conservative attitudes domestically, and there is a colonial system for Japan to work from. The only question is what would be the motivation for colonies? The Spanish have their teeth sunk into the Philippines, colonizing Taiwan could be tedious unless clans are sent there or encouraged to do so.
Well obviously you have to have something for the now-jobless men with weapons to do.

Or maybe Nobunaga and Nobutada could set up mercenary companies, perhaps?
If it's mainly a matter of finding somewhere to put all these restless young me, I do wonder if Hokkaido might suffice? That could actually have more interesting implications than would first seem, particularly if it leads to earlier settlement of the northern part of said island (which in turn possibly even leads to Japanese fishing/whaling/otter-killing activity around the Kuril Islands, Kamchacta Peninsula, Aleutian Islands, et el before the Russians arrive... again, possibly).
 
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