I'm not familiar with Thai politics of the time so I have no clue how plausible this is. However, it occurs to me that Thai co-belligerence was a major boon to Japan's war effort in mainland Southeast Asia.
Consequences of an allied Thailand?
- Thread starter SealTheRealDeal
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- thailand world war ii
It slows down the Japanese attacks on Malaya and Burma by a few weeks, but the Siamese aren't going to be able to hold off Japan for long.
This isn't actually that implausible considering Thailand tried to play both sides, and the British were receptive to granting a defense guarantee that Bangkok sought; the problem is that the United States took a rather dim view of Thailand due to the Franco-Thai War, and the British were not willing to extend said guarantee unless it was done jointly with the Americans. However, barring the French Government not falling or opting to fight on from Africa, I don't see anyway for Phibun not to push forward with the invasion given Thailand would seemingly never have another chance like this to "correct" its borders with one of the European Powers. Instead, the Roosevelt Administration would need to agree with the British to defend Thailand in the case of a Japanese Invasion just as a similar guarantee was extended to the Dutch East Indies, and while it might unsettle a few officials in Washington, it could be argued well on strategic grounds.
The Thai Army was actually rather respectable, and for the single day of combat it saw with the Japanese (not much of a gauge, but not much else to go on) they managed to hold their own fairly well all things considered. However @Peg Leg Pom is right in that Thailand wouldn't hold out in the long-term, and it would delay the Japanese push into Burma (though not Malaya). The presence of a significant Japanese garrison of (~150,000) was also something that happened historically, so they wouldn't be inconvenienced in that respect either. The biggest changes are liable to be much stronger support for the Free Thai Movement and a Thai Government-in-Exile (though it might strain relations with China) and the presence of remnants of the Thai Army on the Allied side in the Burma Campaign.
Why would it strain relations with China? Are you referring to the discriminatory policies practiced by the Thai government towards their ethnic Chinese minority at the time?
As others have said the Royal Thai Army could help to slow the IJA advance, which would keep the Burma Road open for a wee bit longer. One interesting side effect of this is that the RTN had a couple of coastal battleships and submarines, which could all see service with the ABDA forces. On their own they are not enough to turn the tide, but they could contribute in a meaningful way. In fact I started penning a couple of stories about this exact POD told from a perspective of a Thai Naval Captain and his war, I'll have to finish them one day.
Yes, as well as the fact that the..... we'll call them the Free Thai Army, the FTA would be receiving equipment and armaments before the Chinese. The logistical reality is that the United States was only able to effectively train and equip Chinese Divisions that made their way to India or Burma, even in the limited period they used the Burma Road it was extremely difficult to get supplies over into China in bulk, so the FTA would be given priority. Provided the Burma Road holds and is improved this could change in the long term, but that would a couple of years in the future at least.
Assuming this happens, Thailand most likely isn't going to be gaining any border territories from Malaya and Laos.
The Japanese probably installs a puppet government.
The Japanese probably installs a puppet government.