Consequences of a successful Castro assassination.

[Glass Onion]

Historically there were a wide variety of plans and attempts to kill Fidel Castro during the Kennedy administration. So my question is this, what if Castro had been successfully assassinated at some point between the failure of the Bay of Pigs, and the period during which the USSR began deploying missiles to Cuba?

 

[sloreck]

had Castro been assassinated in this period odds are that one of the other top leaders perhaps Che Guevera or his brother Raoul would have taken over - if it was Che then the leadership would have been more "extreme" than Fidel which could have had some negative consequences. For better or worse getting rid of Fidel in 1961 would not have resulted in a Cuba with a leadership in the US camp.

 

[ryackov]

What would happen if the US President was assassinated? Someone would just carry on the predecessor's policies, just in a slightly different way.

 

[Glass Onion]

In the short term, my sense is that Raul Castro would take over. However, the Kennedy administration era CIA might eventually begin planning to assassinate Raul as well when it becomes clear that the Castro regime is not going to die with Fidel. Not sure precisely what happens if both of the Castro brothers die.

 

[The Ubbergeek]

In the short term, my sense is that Raul Castro would take over. However, the Kennedy administration era CIA might eventually begin planning to assassinate Raul as well when it becomes clear that the Castro regime is not going to die with Fidel. Not sure precisely what happens if both of the Castro brothers die.

Adding some more...

From what I heard, Che started in time to.. embarass and annoy the perhaps more pragmatic and calmer Castro (before his flaunting longggggg discourses), and he was.. released for his pet guerrila projects (was it done with pression? I always wonder if he was just freed for this, with blessings from Castro, or... Castro more or less 'told him to go'.).

I am not sure about Raul and the party-state's cacciques, but Che may have annoyed them too (did he had allies, in a potential internal troubles period?), and I'd say raul may have been less subtile and more direct. Che may have been kicked away, if Raul was forced to take over after assassination and before Che left in OTL.

Heck, maybe, if the assassination was done VERY well and discretely (and there would be no real proof showing of US involvelment), Raul could be paranoid of the Che OR vice versa, and.. stuff happens.

 

[Pesterfield]

Would anything happen outside Cuba?

Assuming it leaks, or is just assumed the Americans did it, would the KGB off the leader of some U.S. client state?

Would the U.S. stop with assassinating Castro, or use the vacuum for a second invasion attempt?

 

[Glass Onion]

Would anything happen outside Cuba?

Assuming it leaks, or is just assumed the Americans did it, would the KGB off the leader of some U.S. client state?

Would the U.S. stop with assassinating Castro, or use the vacuum for a second invasion attempt?

The goal was to overthrow the Castro Regime, so I doubt they stop with Fidel, particularly once it becomes clear that his death has not led to some sort of mass uprising to restore anti-communist American allies to power. The idea of killing Castro was connected to a second invasion idea, so that could happen. At the least, I'd expect Raul to quickly find himself a target of assassination. Not sure if he would be successfully killed.