Deleted member 1487
Alright, let's run with this. Mannerheim has a heart attack after the winter war, his replacement gets bullied into letting the Germans attack from their territory even as the political coalition in power doesn't want it. So instead of launching major attacks against Murmansk and Karelia German troops instead focus on Leningrad from the north and capture it in September. Afterwards the Germans and Finns reorganize and attack in Karelia with their full strength and cut off Murmansk and it withers on the vine, falling by the end of the year. That means the Finns with the Sver front. German troops mostly withdraw from Finland to guard Norway and for use with AG-North or on other fronts (like having mountain troops fight in Yugoslavia in 1942-43).
Leningrad is useless as a supply hub until the Baltic winter ice clears in 1942, so sometime in Spring. By then there are repairs of the port, but not captured Soviet shipping. Soviet naval forces are done, something like 2-2.5 million people are captured in Leningrad along with a fair amount of production. AG-North has a much better situation for winter though and I'd say probably no Tikhvin operation given that they have to focus on dealing with the Leningrad occupation.
Moscow probably goes somewhat similar, but do the Germans focus on taking Kalinin if Leningrad is already taken? I imagine the Soviets launch a lot of futile and costly attacks to liberate the city and in the winter don't do very well. Come 1942 Leningrad becomes the supply hub for AG-North and the rail burden is significantly eased for AG-Center too now that all the hinterland north of the Pripyet can be used for them. Stalin has taken a huge political blow too.
Come 1942 11th army isn't sent north and can remain as a force to support AG-South. The Tiger tank isn't revealed too early because there is nothing to use it for in the North. Maybe it makes its debut around Voronezh in Winter.
Now the Soviets are down some factories and a lot of manpower and have lost the Arctic supply route, so are missing some 45-38% of their LL in 1941-42 and about an average of 25% for the rest of the war. Any savings to the Soviets from having to supply Leningrad during the siege are probably lost during the numerous liberation efforts that are extremely costly and less successful than IOTL without Leningrad splitting German defensive efforts, its proximity to the front as a supply source, and its function as a base and potential to transfer in naval units to use in Lake Lagoda.
The Soviets overall are significantly weaker and probably can't take back Leningrad until 1945 at the earliest. Not sure what the rest of the knock on effects would be for the rest of the East Front for the rest of the war, but Stalingrad may not turn into the OTL victory it was.
Leningrad is useless as a supply hub until the Baltic winter ice clears in 1942, so sometime in Spring. By then there are repairs of the port, but not captured Soviet shipping. Soviet naval forces are done, something like 2-2.5 million people are captured in Leningrad along with a fair amount of production. AG-North has a much better situation for winter though and I'd say probably no Tikhvin operation given that they have to focus on dealing with the Leningrad occupation.
Moscow probably goes somewhat similar, but do the Germans focus on taking Kalinin if Leningrad is already taken? I imagine the Soviets launch a lot of futile and costly attacks to liberate the city and in the winter don't do very well. Come 1942 Leningrad becomes the supply hub for AG-North and the rail burden is significantly eased for AG-Center too now that all the hinterland north of the Pripyet can be used for them. Stalin has taken a huge political blow too.
Come 1942 11th army isn't sent north and can remain as a force to support AG-South. The Tiger tank isn't revealed too early because there is nothing to use it for in the North. Maybe it makes its debut around Voronezh in Winter.
Now the Soviets are down some factories and a lot of manpower and have lost the Arctic supply route, so are missing some 45-38% of their LL in 1941-42 and about an average of 25% for the rest of the war. Any savings to the Soviets from having to supply Leningrad during the siege are probably lost during the numerous liberation efforts that are extremely costly and less successful than IOTL without Leningrad splitting German defensive efforts, its proximity to the front as a supply source, and its function as a base and potential to transfer in naval units to use in Lake Lagoda.
The Soviets overall are significantly weaker and probably can't take back Leningrad until 1945 at the earliest. Not sure what the rest of the knock on effects would be for the rest of the East Front for the rest of the war, but Stalingrad may not turn into the OTL victory it was.