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Operation Avalanche was a very close run affair. Kesselring had placed 16th Panzer to cover the Gulf of Salerno, and they nearly ran some units back into the drink (to the point where Mark Clark stopped unloading supply ships and prepared to rembark 5th army HQ)
Suppose Kesselring also stations the Hermann Goering Panzer Division (with its 250 AA guns) to cover the Gulf of Salerno (following its Sicily evacuation) and they combine with 16th Panzer to defeat the invasion. Lets say the Americans and British are able to evac most of the combat troops (only loosing a few thousand, mostly prisoners) but in turn lose a lot of equipment in the chaos of the defeat