Consequences of a Disaster at Dunkirk

[Deleted member 1487]

that's not a given

The surrendered on the 28th, about the time the BEF started showing up in significant numbers at Dunkirk. How do you think they are going to reach the further ports of Oostend and Nieuwport by the 28th?

 

[Magnum]

snip

The same way they reached Dunkirk.

If Dunkirk is blocked off, the advanced British units would have arrived at Nieuport instead. With British forces literally on top of his HQ, I doubt King Leopold would even be physically able to surrender ITTL, seeing how Nieuport would be their only route of escape

 

[ObssesedNuker]

that's not a given

Particularly since it isn't clear that the few elements of the panzer divisions near Dunkirk (the bulk of them on the 24th were off to the west, reducing the British garrisons at Calais and Boulogne) would be able to fight through the blocking French brigade and the hastily rushed in Usher force, although this is very much an unknown. They certainly didn't manage it on the 26th when the halt order was lifted and they attempted to renew the advance, but by that point both sides had some time to rest and reinforce.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

The same way they reached Dunkirk.

If Dunkirk is blocked off, the advanced British units would have arrived at Nieuport instead. With British forces literally on top of his HQ, I doubt King Leopold would even be physically able to surrender ITTL, seeing how Nieuport would be their only route of escape

Note on the map where the front lines were. Dunkirk was straight back, Nieuport was about at the front lines by the 28th.

 

[Magnum]

Note on the map where the front lines were. Dunkirk was straight back, Nieuport was about at the front lines by the 28th.

the difference in distances between Merville/Dunkirk vs Merville/Nieuport or Lille/Dunkirk vs Lille/Nieuport are negligible (Dunkirk wins by 48-58 in the former and loses 70-64 in the latter)

 

[Deleted member 1487]

the difference in distances between Merville/Dunkirk vs Merville/Nieuport or Lille/Dunkirk vs Lille/Nieuport are negligible (Dunkirk wins by 48-58 in the former and loses 70-64 in the latter)

The point is that the Germans were already in Nieuport on the 28th. So if the spearhead of Guderian's corps was already in Dunkirk on the 24th-25th and the BEF first arrivers pull back further east from then on, the whole thing falls apart, as they have to fall back obliquely as the Germans were already hemming the BEF in around Menin. Also with Dunkirk fallen, the rest of Guderian's panzer divisions when arriving would likely then just get pushed east as well to cut off Nieuport before the Brits get there and to put pressure on the Belgians to quit early.

 

[SlideRuleJockey]

Greetings,

I think it would be instructive for all to examine the following:

http://wwii-photos-maps.com/lagewest/1940/May/slides/Lage 24-May-1940.html

The brits had a mere battalion defending Dunkirk. The krauts could have made mincemeat out of them and blocked any exit, Ostend or elsewhere. The germans had already crossed the Aa canel, it was already a forgone conclusion.

Adolf was a moron and let the BEF off the hook.

Had the BEF been bottled up and ground down, the odds greatly favored the Wehrmacht.

My only hesitation in the above statements is that I am not sure of the german logistics situation at that point.

Make your own judgement. Mine is that the on the 24th of May, the French first army and the BEF was toast and ripe for the picking. Plain and simple. Feel free to discuss this, I am all ears.

 

[James G]

'krauts'?

 

[JohnR]

ON the first day of the evacuation, the British estimated that they would only manage to lift 25,000 men. Lets say that they lifted exactly what they estimated they would.

Does anyone think that would change the attitude of the War Cabinet? That Churchill would not have given a similarly pugnacious speech? True, it wouldnt have been subsequently portrayed as some kind of victory, but then it wasnt really even IOTL.

 

[SlideRuleJockey]

'krauts'?

Oops, sorry, no offense intended. My bad.

 

[Mr Carrot]

I think the focus needs to be on force concentration. Not getting one tank across a finishing line first.

why is the BEF, threatened with no clear port to retreat to completely incapable of mounting an offensive operation to clear Dunkirk from supply and ammunition starved light afvs with limited infantry support?

whatever elements You can get into position before a very large mass of retreating infantry swamps your lines of communication can only do so much, especially as they would be fixed in place, losing their maneuver advantage and less easily supported by air power inside the urban environment.

Are we prescribing tiger tank levels of survivability in an urban environment to early model panzers?, even if it's desperation play the BEF has form in jamming the barrels with bodies.

also the Royal Navy will be doing... What whilst panzers are trying to block access to the beach? The US destroyers at Salerno come to mind.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

why is the BEF, threatened with no clear port to retreat to completely incapable of mounting an offensive operation to clear Dunkirk from supply and ammunition starved light afvs with limited infantry support.

Are we prescribing tiger tank levels of survivability in an urban environment, even if it's desperation play the BEF simply have to make it..

also the Royal Navy will be doing... What whilst panzers are trying to role up the beach?

The BEF didn't arrive to set up a perimeter until late on the 25th-26th and only with part of 1 division. By the time a larger part of the BEF had shown up that could potentially have been in good order enough to attack, that would have been on the 28th and was still not in a great situation to attack.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Dunkirk#.22Fight_back_to_the_west.22

On 26 May, Anthony Eden told General Lord Gort, Commander-in-Chief (C-in-C) of the BEF, that he might need to "fight back to the west", and ordered him to prepare plans for the evacuation, but without telling the French or the Belgians. Gort had foreseen the order and preliminary plans were already in hand. The first such plan, for a defence along the Lys Canal, could not be carried out because of German advances on 26 May, with the 2nd and 50th Divisions pinned down, and the 1st, 5th and 48th Divisions under heavy attack. The 2nd Division took heavy casualties trying to keep a corridor open, being reduced to brigade strength, but they succeeded; the 1st, 3rd, 4th and 42nd Divisions escaped along the corridor that day, as did about one-third of the French First Army. As the Allies fell back, they disabled their artillery and vehicles and destroyed their stores.[22][23][24]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Dunkirk#Battle_of_Wytschaete

Effectively they couldn't defeat a German perimeter given the strenghth of the defensive positions and how many more German divisions were coming in that were in far better shape than the limited elements of the BEF trickling in.

On the evening of the 26th, when the Germans could have had more than 1 Panzer division in Dunkirk had they not stopped on the 24th, the Brits could have only attacked with part of the 48th division. It was strong defensive terrain, the Panzer divisions were the elite of the German army, plus they'd have outnumbered the limited Brits in the area, while having all their heavy equipment. A fraction of an infantry division and fragments of others without heavy equipment falling back under pursuit wouldn't be well positioned to attack and take back the port.

 

[Mr Carrot]

we've had this discussion before, if i recall correctly when the divisional readiness levels for the panzer forces for the days quoted were posted up it amounted to a less than stellar showing with little fuel that could make it into Dunkirk proper on the 24th. This situation had not greatly improved for the Western most units by the 26th.

You then run into issues of lowering pressure on the investment of various major French hold outs in the vicinity.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

we've had this discussion before, if i recall correctly when the divisional readiness levels for the panzer forces for the days quoted were posted up it amounted to a less than stellar showing with little fuel that could make it into Dunkirk proper on the 24th. This situation had not greatly improved for the Western most units by the 26th.

You then run into issues of lowering pressure on the investment of various major French hold outs in the vicinity.

If you've got a source that can show that, then we can incorporate that in to this discussion, but not until then. How it there be lowered pressure? The forces that would be attacking on the 24th were locked down fighting in the Dunkirk perimeter into June anyway.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

I cant began to count the number of times this subject has come up in Alt Hist forums. I'd like to see the one where the German pz corps are shot up trying to assualt the enclave & instead of being 50% strength in early June are 15% or 20% strength.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

I cant began to count the number of times this subject has come up in Alt Hist forums. I'd like to see the one where the German pz corps are shot up trying to assualt the enclave & instead of being 50% strength in early June are 15% or 20% strength.

But how? They did assault the Dunkirk perimeter after the Halt Order was lifted and a perimeter had been set up (wasn't established until the 26th or so). They assaulted it after it had already become harder to assault than it was on the 24th and as it was they were already assaulting the Aa Canal Line held by the French on the 23rd.

 

[Greenville]

I think the main consensus is that the British army becomes captured in France. The British parliament gets Churchill to step down and begins a negotiated peace with Germany in exchange for the return of the soldiers. It's probably either a simple armistice or ceasefire. Germany goes forms its eastern bloc and goes after the Soviet Union later a few months earlier than OTL.

Eventually I do see the Americans eventually getting involved in the war and using Italy, Sardinia, and North Africa as landing grounds for an invasion of Europe in the event of an armistice. They will use Britain as a landing ground in the case of ceasefire.

 

[phx1138]

assume that Hitler never gives the halt order

He didn't. Von Runstedt did & lied about it.

Instead of being evacuated, the majority of the British troops are taken prisoner by the Germans. This means that around 300,000 soldiers of the BEF are now prisoners of war.

Don't forget, about equal numbers (in total) evacuated from other French ports; Dunkirk was just the biggest (IIRC).

That said, without the need to re-equip those divisions, production of the 2pdr might stop a bit sooner, replaced by the 6pdr (& ultimately 17pdr) sooner.

And how would the situations on other fronts develop, like in North Africa or in the East Indies (once the Japanese start their exansion)?

I'm thinking pretty much as OTL, with local forces involved in both cases. It might mean somewhat greater emphasis on Colonial troops (so maybe Winnipeg Rifles get sent to HK, instead...), so likely more Indian troops in North Africa.

It's conceivable it leads to more French Colonials involved; if that changes the balance of power with Britain for the duration, that's a good thing--& if it changes the balance within the French Empire, leading to a Commonwealth postwar, even better.

iirc thats about the same as were lost in Greece and Africa in 1941

Enough to discourage Winston from sending troops to Greece in the first place? Or for Brooke to be able to talk him down?

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Consider also the following for additional thoughts:
WI Dunkirk not evacuated?
What if? Disaster at Dunkirk
The Furher hordes his planes
So, suppose the Brits exit the war in 1940...
BEF is captured at Dunkirk - How does Churchill respond to a Ransom-for-Peace?
A Different Dunkirk
Disaster at Dunkirk
WI: Dunkirk goes horribly wrong
What if the British and French at Dunkirk surrendered?
German victory at Dunkirk
Massacre at Dunkirk
Consequences of BEF lost at Dunkirk
Dunkirk Evacuation Prevented By Mines
No Miracle of Dunkirk?
Massacre of Dunkirk
WI Dunkirk evacuation a complete failure for the Allies?
british disaster at dunkirk
WI: Dunkirk fails?
Dunkirk Evac, complete failure

 

[Deleted member 94680]

I think the main consensus

Yours and a few other's, by no mean the "main".

is that the British army becomes captured in France.

Part of the British Army is captured in France

The British parliament gets Churchill to step down and begins a negotiated peace with Germany in exchange for the return of the soldiers.

Not. Going. To. Happen. Who becomes the quisling of Britain? Who supports this figure in Parliament? Why would the King appoint him in the first place?

It's probably either a simple armistice or ceasefire. Germany goes forms its eastern bloc and goes after the Soviet Union later a few months earlier than OTL.

Armistice, obviously. Hitler's plan was for a quasi-alliance with Britain, never conquest. 'Eastern Bloc'? Quite the turn of phrase, that.

Eventually I do see the Americans eventually getting involved in the war and using Italy, Sardinia, and North Africa as landing grounds for an invasion of Europe in the event of an armistice.

Really? For why? America that only got involved because Churchill persuaded Roosevelt of the necessity and only really took Britain seriously after she decided to fight on post-Dunkirk will just chuck in for no reason?

They will use Britain as a landing ground in the case of ceasefire.

Which is why ceasefire is bonkers from Hitler's point of view.