Consequences of a 2nd Mexican Empire

Napoleon III had some high hopes in installing Maximilian as Mexican emperor. One was that it would start a chain reaction of Catholic monarchies being set up in Latin America. Another was that Mexico would attract some of the European immigrants who were headed towards the United States, and that these would help develop the country to France's benefit (silver-rich Sonora was to become another California). Assuming he manages to defeat Juarez and secure the entire country (a Southern victory in the ACW is a necessary condition, though probably not a sufficient one), how realistic were these hopes?

Also, given the conflicting views of the liberal-leaning Maximilian and the reactionary conservatives who had invited him in, what would the domestic politics of the Mexican Empire look like?
 
The Problem with Maxamillion was he was too Liberal for Conservatives, and too Conservatives for the Liberals.

I'd think If he either choose one of those options (Since the Liberals are anti-monarchy, I think Maxamillion would need to more conservative), and a prolonged Civil War would help. After the ACW, the USA began shipping supplies and funds to Juarez, so that needs to be delayed as much as possible. Although its still rather difficult because a Civil War POD too early on could butterfly Maxamillion deciding to go to Mexico.

I think Vicksburg holding could possilby prolong the Civil War, although the Civil war isn't my main point of knowledge (Id as MacGregor or another Civil War TL writer the best way to delay the ACW)
 
The bigger issue is that Louis-Napoléon's dream of a Bonapartist Mexican Empire was just that; a dream. His forces were scattered from Rome to Algeria to Mexico, and after the initial deployment he didn't have reservists, or the will, left to send more to aid Maximilian. So you're going to need Louis-Napoléon to either pull back somewhere else, or have him more fully entranched at home so that he can dictate military preparedness levels. As it was whenever he wanted to increase the military budget the Senate would decrease it; the same held true for recruitment, etc.
 
Something to Consider, Maximilian was a Hapsburg, and an important one at that. This could lead to a French and Austrian alliance, which could lead to Austrian intervention in the Franco-Prussian War, which would trigger Bismarck's secret treaty with Russia....
 
Something to Consider, Maximilian was a Hapsburg, and an important one at that. This could lead to a French and Austrian alliance, which could lead to Austrian intervention in the Franco-Prussian War, which would trigger Bismarck's secret treaty with Russia....

Maximilian was, in fact, chosen to improve relations with Austria (and in the hope of minimizing British opposition to the Mexican adventure, since his wife was Belgian). But his political attitude toward the Austro-Prussian rivalry was opportunistic and his personal sympathy was with Prussia. An alliance with Austria is possible, but the price for that is the cession of Venetia to Italy, which Francis Joseph refused to agree to no matter what Napoleon III tried to dangle as compensation.
 
I'd go with a Atlanta Holds, and a Copperhead Victory.
While McClellan talks a good Victory, the war stalemates, as no one wants to be the last causality.
McClellan doesn't pay the Pinkertons guarding Juarez, and Juarez has to leave Arizona.
Juarez is captured, Executed.
While Juarez is held up as a Martyr, the rebellion itself splinters, allowing it to be defeated in Detail.

While neither the Liberals or the Conservatives are completely happy, neither are upset enuff to be effective in getting rid of Max.

Maximilian turns to the UPCA as a distraction for the French & Hotheads in Mexico.
Meanwhile his Trade enhancement policies* begin to take effect and Mexico's Economy Booms.

This attracts part of the Italian Migration.

by the time of his death in the late 1800's Mexico is on the Verge of 1st world status.


*Max set up several trade development Bureaus, Including one to by and operate ships for a Mexican Merchant Marine.
These where shut down by Juarez, after he regained Power. All the Ships where sold to American Shipping Companies, Who Immediately raised the Shipping Rates.
 
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