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What if someone other than the Qing is ruling China as late as 1700, what are the likely consequences for the Sino-Russian border (or the Russian border in Asia, period) and relations overall?

Here's a few candidate substitutes for the Qing:

a) A continued Ming

b) Li Zicheng's "Shun" Dynasty

c) A neo-Ming Dynasty (started by a successful takeover by a Ming pretender or ally, the Prince of Gui, Koxinga, etc.)

d) Wu Sangui's "Zhou" Dynasty (where his rebellion succeeds)

e) An dynasty started by another regional player, like Wu's fellow feudatories, or the breakaway dynasty based in Sichuan during the initial Ming-Qing transition.


With any non-Qing dynasty ruling China, will the Russians be able to keep the Amur as their boundary in 1689 (unlike OTL, where they had to cede it in the treaty of Nerchinsk)? could Russia absorb the maritime province and establish Vladivostock earlier? Could Russia do even better, dominating Mongolia much earlier than 1911, or establishing a border at the Great Wall or Yalu river?

If the Qing are merely pushed out of China proper, north of the Great Wall, but not wiped out, will they still be capable of forcing a Russian retreat from Amur territory?

reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Nerchinsk










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