Consequence of an Ottoman Victory at Vienna?

The Ottomans taking Vienna in 1529 would result in the city being sacked and its inhabitants being enslaved, but the Ottoman would lose the city soon again if they didn’t leave it. For the Habsburg it’s a humiliation, but little more than that, they may have to compromise with the Protestants to greater degree. The Habsburg may be thrown out of Hungary, but the Ottomans won’t allow a united Hungary to survive, instead we will see Hungary being split up, likely in the principality of Upper Hungary and the Principality of Transylvanian, while the Ottomans keep the rest. The Croatians stay under the Habsburgs, but likely lose Slavonia. The biggest effect without a royal Hungary under Habsburg control, we will likely see a complete collapse of the Catholic Church in Hungary, rather than the Habsburg upkeep the political structures of the Catholic Church in Hungary.
So Calvinist vassal hungary? Like otl but the counter reformation is more unlikely.
 
A Calvinist/ Protestant Hungary would be very interesting to see. As you said, this will force the Habsburg to work with and compromise with the Protestants much more then OTL, which also have interesting effects down the line.

Worst case, the Ottoamsn get a bad of victory disease, and suffer a horrible lost in the field of battle that knocks them down a peg, or two.

So Calvinist vassal hungary? Like otl but the counter reformation is more unlikely.

Upper Hungary would be Lutheran, it was the main religion there, Transylvania would be the mix it was in OTL, Ottoman Hungary would be dominated by Calvinists, but we would see the Unitarians rise as in OTL and there would also be a Lutheran minority, we would also see a growing Muslim minority, but that one will “disappear” the moment a Christian army move through Hungary.

In general we can expect Ottoman Hungary to be as depopulated as in OTL as the Ottoman mismanament won’t change, which means that the Habsburg will still blitzkrieg themselves through at some point. But with the western part of Hungary also being put mismanaged by the Ottomans, we will likely see increased German settlement creating a far larger “Burgenland”. The biggest change will be how the Habsburgs deal with Upper Hungary, I expect they will have to accept a wide degree of autonomy and religious heterodoxy as they did in Transylvania, which will pretty much make the Slovaks Lutherans permanent.

In reconquered Hungary they will relative easy deal with the local Muslims (kill, enslave or expel), but it will be harder to respread Catholicism as they will lack OTL core and the institutions needed to spread it.
 
But if Hungary is a turkish vassal they can still hold the city by proxy. But then again Egypt was mostly garrisoned by Egyptian soldiers, so how different would it really be?

They could but for how long? the Ottoman's vassals in Hungary/Transylvania had been routinely beaten by the Hapsburgs all the way to the 2nd Vienna. As a result, the Ottomans would need to have almost permanent presence on the Western border at the expense of all other theaters. In OTL they limited themselves to a direct occupation of a part of Hungary without trying too hard to occupy the whole country or to seriously help their Transylvanian vassals to conquer Royal Hungary.

In the case of Egypt there was no strong competing force across any border and, unlike Egyptian soldiers in Egypt, Hungarian soldiers in Vienna would not qualify as the native troops so it was very different.
 
Upper Hungary would be Lutheran, it was the main religion there, Transylvania would be the mix it was in OTL, Ottoman Hungary would be dominated by Calvinists, but we would see the Unitarians rise as in OTL and there would also be a Lutheran minority, we would also see a growing Muslim minority, but that one will “disappear” the moment a Christian army move through Hungary.

In general we can expect Ottoman Hungary to be as depopulated as in OTL as the Ottoman mismanament won’t change, which means that the Habsburg will still blitzkrieg themselves through at some point. But with the western part of Hungary also being put mismanaged by the Ottomans, we will likely see increased German settlement creating a far larger “Burgenland”. The biggest change will be how the Habsburgs deal with Upper Hungary, I expect they will have to accept a wide degree of autonomy and religious heterodoxy as they did in Transylvania, which will pretty much make the Slovaks Lutherans permanent.

In reconquered Hungary they will relative easy deal with the local Muslims (kill, enslave or expel), but it will be harder to respread Catholicism as they will lack OTL core and the institutions needed to spread it.

Except Ottoman Hungary was created since 1542 with Ottoman Participation. Hungary was largely left for Zapolya. Zapolya died and his successor failed so the Ottomans were kinda forced to annex what was Ottoman Hungary. If Vienna falls, that is largely prevented (I see a decent chance of some parts of Hungary getting occupied such as Banate, Srem and just maybe Croatia. Those areas might get depopulated.
 
They could but for how long? the Ottoman's vassals in Hungary/Transylvania had been routinely beaten by the Hapsburgs all the way to the 2nd Vienna. As a result, the Ottomans would need to have almost permanent presence on the Western border at the expense of all other theaters. In OTL they limited themselves to a direct occupation of a part of Hungary without trying too hard to occupy the whole country or to seriously help their Transylvanian vassals to conquer Royal Hungary.

In the case of Egypt there was no strong competing force across any border and, unlike Egyptian soldiers in Egypt, Hungarian soldiers in Vienna would not qualify as the native troops so it was very different.

The Hungarians have to hold it until Zapolya can consolidat power. In OTL he failed as the Habsburgs were already in Western and Northern Hungary (The Kingdom) and for Zapolya, it looked like impossible to deal with. Even for the Ottomans it turned in to something unmanagable while fighting numerous fronts. Having Vienna which also prevents Habsburg aid to Royal Hungary ends up with Zapolya consolidating power there. There is a great chance of Zapolya losing Vienna but by that time, he might have all of Hungary loyal to him.

A lot have to go right but it is not really out of question. The Ottomans came numerous times all the way to towns in Slovakian and Austrian Borders. As frustrating it was, a new campaign can start again if necessary.

Besides... Not being native in Vienna. Wasn't Austria largely protestant by 1529? If so, would they still be loyal to a pious Catholic Charles V if the Protestant Hungarians were an alternative?
 
Except Ottoman Hungary was created since 1542 with Ottoman Participation. Hungary was largely left for Zapolya. Zapolya died and his successor failed so the Ottomans were kinda forced to annex what was Ottoman Hungary. If Vienna falls, that is largely prevented (I see a decent chance of some parts of Hungary getting occupied such as Banate, Srem and just maybe Croatia. Those areas might get depopulated.

The problem is that a united Hungary are simply too big big for the Ottomans vassalise for more than a short period.
 
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