Conrand von Hötzendorff dies before WW1

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
  • Start date

Deleted member 1487

What if the Austro-Hungarian army chief dies before the first world war? Who would take his place and how would they conduct the war? My impression is that Potiorek:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potiorek
would become chief of staff. His conduct in Serbia does not engender the greatest of confidences, but he was blinded by desire for revenge, and may behave differently if he takes over the AOK slot before the Franz Ferdinand assassination (as he wouldn't be governor of Bosnia and feel responsible for the deaths). Hötzendorff made several ridiculous decisions in the lead up to major battles in Galicia and in the placement of the 2nd army first in Serbia then moving it to Galicia.

I don't know as much about Potiorek, but is there a chance that he wouldn't be as aggressive against the Russians, lacking the grandeous plans of Conrad? Perhaps a greater focus on Serbia, with the 2nd army staying longer on the Balkan front, long enough to secure Belgrade? Staying on the defensive in Galicia has huge benefits for the Austrians, given their deficiency of quick-firing, modern artillery. But this means the Russian 9th army may then be used in Prussia, changing the fate of the German 8th army. Thoughts?
 
What if the Austro-Hungarian army chief dies before the first world war? Who would take his place and how would they conduct the war? My impression is that Potiorek:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potiorek
would become chief of staff. His conduct in Serbia does not engender the greatest of confidences, but he was blinded by desire for revenge, and may behave differently if he takes over the AOK slot before the Franz Ferdinand assassination (as he wouldn't be governor of Bosnia and feel responsible for the deaths). Hötzendorff made several ridiculous decisions in the lead up to major battles in Galicia and in the placement of the 2nd army first in Serbia then moving it to Galicia.

I don't know as much about Potiorek, but is there a chance that he wouldn't be as aggressive against the Russians, lacking the grandeous plans of Conrad? Perhaps a greater focus on Serbia, with the 2nd army staying longer on the Balkan front, long enough to secure Belgrade? Staying on the defensive in Galicia has huge benefits for the Austrians, given their deficiency of quick-firing, modern artillery. But this means the Russian 9th army may then be used in Prussia, changing the fate of the German 8th army. Thoughts?

Swapping Potiorek for Conrad swaps one set of problems for another. Here is a good source for the KuK army. http://www.geocities.com/veldes1/austria2.html In the early months of the war I could see him embracing a crush Serbia while going on the defensive against Russia. He would keep most if not all of Second Army in Serbia. Very bad cooperation between Conrad and Potiorek was one of the causes of the failure of the 1914 Serbian campaign. I could see the Serbs being overwhelmed by mid Oct. This is way too early for a Salonika. Assuming the Ottomans enter the rail line will be open. No way there is a Gallipoli. Maybe an Alexandretta instead.

As for Russian Ninth Army it took a long time to mobilize and deploy. Too long to have an impact on Tannenberg.
 

Deleted member 1487

Swapping Potiorek for Conrad swaps one set of problems for another. Here is a good source for the KuK army. http://www.geocities.com/veldes1/austria2.html In the early months of the war I could see him embracing a crush Serbia while going on the defensive against Russia. He would keep most if not all of Second Army in Serbia. Very bad cooperation between Conrad and Potiorek was one of the causes of the failure of the 1914 Serbian campaign. I could see the Serbs being overwhelmed by mid Oct. This is way too early for a Salonika. Assuming the Ottomans enter the rail line will be open. No way there is a Gallipoli. Maybe an Alexandretta instead.

As for Russian Ninth Army it took a long time to mobilize and deploy. Too long to have an impact on Tannenberg.


But what about the Masurian lakes? The 9th army would probably intervene in East Prussia eventually, as they were able to get involved in the fighting at Lublin on September 2nd. Perhaps the Masurian lakes never happens, as the 8th army stands on the defensive. No invasion of Poland, as the German and Austrian fronts stay separate, each pinned in their own area by large numbers of Russian troops.

The Austrian army is able to stand on its own though, especially if they back up the forts are Lemberg and Przemysl. The Russians are instead bled out while they attack on territory without adequate supply, and when the Serbs are finally brought to heel, then the Austrians have about 12+ extra divisions for the Galician front. Perhaps they do no earn their poor reputation and instead become somewhat competent without the massive losses in pre-war NCOs and officers.

As for the Serbs, they would have to retreat back into the interior of the country, if they first do not try to defend the capitol. The 2ns army with its 4 corps could do it and wreak havoc on the national psyche. For political reasons, I'd imagine they would at least try to defend Belgrade, but this would allow the 5th and 6th armies to invade unopposed, eventually forcing a retreat into the interior after the army is ground down. The campaign runs on for some time, but the Bulgarians are probably going to jump in once the Serbs get beaten to the certain point. The opportunity is just too juicy to pass up. How do the Romanians react to a reassertive Austria-Hungary that is master of the Balkans and is able to survive the Russian steamroller in Galicia (I am assuming)?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
But what about the Masurian lakes? The 9th army would probably intervene in East Prussia eventually, as they were able to get involved in the fighting at Lublin on September 2nd. Perhaps the Masurian lakes never happens, as the 8th army stands on the defensive. No invasion of Poland, as the German and Austrian fronts stay separate, each pinned in their own area by large numbers of Russian troops.

The Austrian army is able to stand on its own though, especially if they back up the forts are Lemberg and Przemysl. The Russians are instead bled out while they attack on territory without adequate supply, and when the Serbs are finally brought to heel, then the Austrians have about 12+ extra divisions for the Galician front. Perhaps they do no earn their poor reputation and instead become somewhat competent without the massive losses in pre-war NCOs and officers.

As for the Serbs, they would have to retreat back into the interior of the country, if they first do not try to defend the capitol. The 2ns army with its 4 corps could do it and wreak havoc on the national psyche. For political reasons, I'd imagine they would at least try to defend Belgrade, but this would allow the 5th and 6th armies to invade unopposed, eventually forcing a retreat into the interior after the army is ground down. The campaign runs on for some time, but the Bulgarians are probably going to jump in once the Serbs get beaten to the certain point. The opportunity is just too juicy to pass up. How do the Romanians react to a reassertive Austria-Hungary that is master of the Balkans and is able to survive the Russian steamroller in Galicia (I am assuming)?

Ninth Army was ready in early Sept and if it was headed north or nw instead of south it would have had a big impact on Ludendorff's strategy. As for Romania King Carol had a strong desire to enter the war on the side of the CP with which he had a secret treaty. The cabinet was proEntente however. If Serbia collapses in Sept and the Russians are not completely running wild the king may be able to have his way.
 

Deleted member 1487

If the 9th heads north, how will Ludendorff react? I don't think the Masurian lakes is going to happen; it wouldn't be safe. With the reforming 2nd, 1st, 9th and forming 10th, the Germans are going to be outnumbered quite badly. Even with the 4 Russian armies locked down in Galicia, Ludendorff is going to have to play his cards just right.

Any ideas what he might do, because I don't think anything spectacular is going to happen other than Ludendorff screaming for help to Falkenhayn and waiting for reinforcements. Then when a full German 9th army is ready, there will be some maneuver work going on. Of course that is if the Russians wait. Rennenkampf probably wont make the mistake of letting the 9th go it alone, and Königsberg might be left under siege as the Russians try to squeeze him like a nut. Could be that Falkenhayn is forced to wrap up his attacks in the west early to support Ludendorff....maybe no Kindermord?
 
If the 9th heads north, how will Ludendorff react? I don't think the Masurian lakes is going to happen; it wouldn't be safe. With the reforming 2nd, 1st, 9th and forming 10th, the Germans are going to be outnumbered quite badly. Even with the 4 Russian armies locked down in Galicia, Ludendorff is going to have to play his cards just right.

Any ideas what he might do, because I don't think anything spectacular is going to happen other than Ludendorff screaming for help to Falkenhayn and waiting for reinforcements. Then when a full German 9th army is ready, there will be some maneuver work going on. Of course that is if the Russians wait. Rennenkampf probably wont make the mistake of letting the 9th go it alone, and Königsberg might be left under siege as the Russians try to squeeze him like a nut. Could be that Falkenhayn is forced to wrap up his attacks in the west early to support Ludendorff....maybe no Kindermord?

Grand Duke Nicholas actually favored at one point sending 1st, 9th and 10th armies against East Prussia but was persuaded by SW Front to let them have 9th Army to use against the AH. However 10th Army was not really ready until the end of Sept. What might happen is around 7 Sep the 9th Army marches north to a jump off point on the Narev around Pultusk. While this is going on Masurian Lakes begins but either 9 or 10 Sep Ludendorff becomes aware of the menace of the Russian 9th Army and abandons the idea of encircling and destroying 1st Army. Rennenkampf is already withdrawing but H+L are definitely not chasing.

Now there are 2 important ommand changes in mid Sep. Moltke is relieved 14 Sept Before he goes the menace of 9th Army may cause him to send another corps east. On the Russian side Zhilinsky is sacked 17 Sep and replaced at NW Front by the mercurial Ruszki. Ludendorff might reduce 8th Army to only 2 corps and form a strong 9th Army at Soldau to smash the Russian 9th Army.
 

Deleted member 1487

I was given the impression that the 9th army was ready sooner. It intervened in the south on the 2nd of September, though somewhat piecemeal. It assembled at Warsaw as far as I know, which is closer to Prussia than Galicia (though they intervened at Lublin OTL), so it should be possible that they arrive on the scene during the Masurian lakes. Also, I thought the 10th army halted the Germans after Rennenkampf retreated, which leads me to believe they might participate in some action a bit sooner.

Any idea what the composition of the 9th army was? Or at least where I might find out more about the Russian OOB?
 
Top