Conrad Waits: a better Austro-Hungarian Eastern Front (v 2.0)

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Serbian Front

When the Great War started in 1914 it was over a conflict between A-H and Serbia, which ironically was one of the quietest fronts of the year. Initially A-H mobilized troops to crush their southern enemy and started the violence by shelling Belgrade with their Danube river flotilla, but quickly found that Russia was the greater danger and thus focused their mobilization in Galicia.

That left Serbia unengaged by Austro-Hungarian forces of the Minimal Gruppe Balkan, which was simply tasked with defending the southern flank of the Empire against Serbian attacks. This was thought to be an easy task, as Serbia lacked modern logistics, artillery, or very many munitions, as they had just fought two wars immediately prior to the current conflict.
What Serbia did have was its large army of combat experienced veterans, who were naturally hardened by the harsh climate of their homeland and the tradition of blood feuds in the primeval forests and mountains of their birth.
They also had a very skilled general in the person of Vojvoda Putnik. Very experienced and with string of victories behind him, Putnik had the full confidence of his men and monarch. Not only that but Serbia had a serious numerical advantage over the Austro-Hungarian armies facing him, as he could mobilize 450,000 troops in three armies to the two armies of 7 divisions of MG-Balkan.

Austria though had one of its best and most experienced generals opposite Putnik, Archduke Eugen:
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archduke_Eugen_of_Austria)
Eugen had been retired, but with the death of Oskar Potiorek the Balkan army group had lost its commander. Conrad had not forgotten his mentor and idol, who, upon turning up for duty on the outbreak of war, was rewarded with command of the principle front in the war of vengeance against Franz Ferdinand's assassins. After Conrad consulted with Eugen upon his reactivation, a meeting which saved Conrad from making a serious mobilization mistake, as Eugen had counselled waiting until Russia had declared her intentions, Eugen departed for Sarajevo to begin organizing his defensive forces.

Eugen brought with him his very skilled chief of staff Alfred Krauss, who would be the architect of Eugen's successes in the coming months. Initially these two officers had an enormous task resting on their shoulders, as A-H security forces predicted a major uprising of pro-Serbian Slavs in Bosnia in support of an invasion should one materialize. This forced Eugen to tie down over 100,000 older reservists that could have been used at the front to supplement his weak defensive forces. In fact uprisings were counted on by the Serbian army, as they intended to invade Bosnia and use the local population to supplement their army and provide support to their advancing forces.

However both Eugen and Putnik were to be surprised by the total lack of response by the local Bosnians to the Serbian offensive. So worried by the potential of local Serbs to threaten the rear of the A-H army, A-H security forces cracked down heavily on anyone suspected of harboring Serbian sympathies, rounding up thousands of potential leaders for prison camps that Serbian soldiers would start to populate. Bosnians as a whole too were very upset by the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, so took it upon themselves to initiate violence against ethnic Serbs in Bosnia and Southern Hungary; A-H authorities did nothing to stop them, which only encouraged further violence that helped suppress any desire by local Orthodox Serbs to rise up and make themselves a target for angry bands of patriotic Muslim and Catholic Bosnians. The A-H was also very paranoid about '5th columnists' in their rear or Serbian Komitaji (guerillas) operating against their supply lines; this led to the very liberal rules about summarily shooting civilians in the army's rear zones 'without a sufficient reason for being there', which resulted in large numbers of civilians, both A-H and Serbian being executed on flimsy pretenses. All of this combined prevented any resistance to the A-H government being organized, which derailed the planned Serbian conquest of Bosnia.

Against this crackdown in Bosnia Serbia upon mobilization, confident that their compatriots in A-H would come to their aid, launched an invasion of Bosnia via the Drina, with the goal of 'liberating' Sarajevo. A-H forces, despite their small numbers, had far more firepower than the Serbian forces, modern logistics, comparatively unlimited munitions, and superb defensive terrain on their side. The Serbs lacked much in the way of artillery, machine guns, logistics (especially as they were operating out of the wilderness of West Serbia where there were no rail lines or roads), significant stocks of ammunition, or bridging material.

As can be expected, even the best soldiers cannot hope to win against an enemy with the advantages the A-H had, even if its commander were derelict in his duty; Eugen was certainly not derelict. Forbidding counter attacks and ordering troops to rely on their firepower to preserve their forces while take advantage of the material superiority, Eugen's forces decimated the Serbian offensive in August, which fell apart in the face of A-H mountain troops, machine guns, and artillery. Serbian forces couldn't even bring their artillery over the Drina, which, without radio communication to direct supporting fire, was unable to intervene. Falling back in disarray after two weeks of offensives, having expected the A-H would be too busy handling uprisings and guerilla attacks, the Serbian army lost some 20,000 of their best soldiers, irreplaceable veterans of the Balkan wars. The efforts had exhausted their offensive ability until they could reorganize for another attempt.

The Serbian leadership, realizing that they were unable to offensively achieve victory against A-H firepower, preferred to sit on the defensive, build up their forces, and wait for the Austrians to come to them while conducting raids with their more elite units to wear down the A-Hs.
However alliance politics intervened. Serbia was resupplied with artillery shells and some more guns via Salonika by French and Russia and was expected to aid the Entente cause by once again attacking. Having little hope for success the Serbian army attacked again in mid-October.
This time attacking north over the Sava river instead of the Drina into Bosnia, the Serbs used a smaller assault force with boats constructed from the ample lumber supply of Serbia supported by the small number of guns available. Still though the Serbian infantry met A-H forces, this time support by older reservists freed from occupation duty against a revolt that never came, entrenched in prepared positions. Their massed fire supported by more artillery than the attacks and machine guns proved too much for the assault forces, even as they established a bridgehead over the Sava. The bridgehead held out for more than a week before the operation was abandoned, as it cost 10,000 casualties to try and invade Hungary.
As before the Serbs had to admit defeat to their allies with the butcher's bill to prove their efforts.

Still, the Entente demanded action, especially as fighting on the Eastern Front grew very serious in November. Once again Serbian forces threw themselves against the Austrians on the Sava, once again falling in a hail of shells and bullets. This attempt cost another 12,000 veterans and finally exhausted offensive munition stocks. But this failed attempt finally allowed the Serbs to pause for the winter and assume a defensive posture. Skirmishing had never ceased, but major operations would have to wait until next year.

Even as combat quietly died away, another enemy snuck into Serbian camps: Typhus. It was unclear whether it originated in military camps or among war refugees huddled in improvised housing, but soon the epidemic spread to the army and civilian population, claiming tens of thousands of lives throughout the country. Survivors were badly weakened by their bought with the illness, which devastated the army and left it unable to do much more than sit and wait for the Austrians to come to them.

The A-Hs and Eugen exploited their victories on the Serbian front for propaganda purposes for domestic consumption, the enemy, and for neutrals potentially thinking about joining in. The defeats of Serbia helped to reinforce the impression that A-H had a serious general in Eugen and a solid army, especially on the defensive. The lopsided casualty statistics helped enhance his reputation, especially among the Italians and Bulgarians, both of whom were eyeing the war increasingly close. The Italians were eager to extend their Empire in the Balkans either at the expense of A-H as part of the Entente or as a neutral interested party watching A-H success, as they were treaty bound to compensate Italy for expansion in the region.
Bulgaria wanted slices of Serbia for her own kingdom, but after the beatings of the Balkan wars did not want to engage in more fighting unless success was assured and her other neighbors didn't jump in against her.

Only time would tell what would happen, but by the end of December 1914 the lines had not budged one bit, though the Serbs had littered A-H with their dead.

August-Sept.jpg
 
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I don't think he did it maliciously against Auffenberg; its just that Auffenberg was a convenient and really the only person that he could blame and keep his job. Its situational who would get thrown under the bus. However it is quite interesting that Auffenberg was the only general IOTL that was treated like that so perhaps Conrad did have something against him (Auffenberg wasn't liked by Franz Josef or the establishment, so perhaps it was just easier) or afterward just learned that he could get away with murder (of his soldiers) and not worry about losing his job.
He bought the Skoda mortars without permission. He thought they were too good of a weapon to not purchase, though the government didn't want to spend the money. So he took the 'its easier to ask forgiveness than permission' approach and he was fired. He also was not diplomatic and had no problem calling people out for their stupidity, which cost him the support of everyone but Conrad in the government.

The A-H Navy did that all the time, heck they would not even have had Dreadnoughts if Montecuccoli did not just have Skoda and Stabilimento Tecnico Triestino* start building them without them being authorized in 1909/1910, that came almost 2 years later. Considering the huge cost difference between an almost 100 million crown ship and a few thousand crown artillery piece, I am guessing Auffenberg's personality is the key. The navy knew they would get backing all the way up to Franz Ferdinand. If Auffenberg pissed off everyone who could back/protect him then yea he would not succeed within the dual-Monarchy.

Thanks for the info., also yea Eugene! Considering Eugene did a lot of MWR work OTL during the early part of the war, plus having his older brother as Supreme Commander of A-H forces, and being a "Habsburg" general all does not hurt regarding propaganda. Oh, and he is Grand Master of the Teutonic Knights, which might also come in handy as a reward for competent officers.

I wonder if Wurm will not earn his "Ruthless" nickname since there are no futile attacks being launched? He actually did really well in Italy when on both the defense and later offense. This might let him earn his nobility earlier than he did OTL, plus get actual foreign recognition (he got 2 or 3 German & Ottoman awards OTL), since the Serbs actually attacked right into his Corps sector.

Just like your original timeline, one really simple thing actually means a ton to Austria-Hungary. They have decent to good troops (especially at the start of the war) and many decent plus a few good generals (though she has a lot of bad & very bad [Brudermann] ones in important places early on). If they do not waste them early on, and A-H starts to put the right people in the right places she can function as a true partner to Germany (though not near as powerful as Germany) and not a weakened dependent.

*If Austria-Hungary were only wealthier, this was one of the best shipyards in the world at the time. If she could of just been able to afford a bigger fleet they could of built it easily (had in place OTL, the infrastructure to build three battleships at the same time).
 
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Deleted member 1487

Regarding Auffenberg, I checked by Gunther Rothenberg book on the Austro-Hungarian army and it seems that Auffenberg did not lose his job just over the Skoda mortars, though this did make him a lot of enemies, especially in Budapest (they already hated him because of his involvement with planning Plan U the invasion of Hungary in 1905). It seems that Conrad was relieved of duty in 1912 and Schemua was not very well liked as his replacement and FF wanted to bring back Conrad temporarily; Franz Josef would not tolerate two Franz Ferdinand men in the military leadership, so Auffenberg, who was already hated by the Hungarians, was a convenient person to replace, especially as there were threats from Budapest about the military budget unless Auffenberg was removed from the War Ministry. Krobatin turned out to be much more tolerable by everyone, so was able to survive politically for much longer. And he was a friend of Conrad's, so that helped as well.

I wonder if Wurm will not earn his "Ruthless" nickname since there are no futile attacks being launched? He actually did really well in Italy when on both the defense and later offense. This might let him earn his nobility earlier than he did OTL, plus get actual foreign recognition (he got 2 or 3 German & Ottoman awards OTL), since the Serbs actually attacked right into his Corps sector.
Yep. Wurm doesn't gain that reputation and Putnik loses some of his. Eugen gains much more than IOTL, at least in 1914-15. Though it doesn't matter who the Serbs attack, as it was really pretty much impossible for Serbian troops to successfully invade anyone because of their lack of a logistic train. The A-H troops had far more firepower than the Serbs did, which only becomes that much more lopsided when they have to attack over rivers and out of a wilderness against entrenched and well supported/supplied professionals. Also the A-Hs will keep their generally negative opinion of Serbian military ability that made them so arrogant in OTL 1914. And the Serbian Front A-H troops will be the major source of pre-war officers and men that survive into 1915, plus the mobilized reservists have a chance to gain combat experience in a low risk environment, plus learn respect for the power of the defense.

Just like your original timeline, one really simple thing actually means a ton to Austria-Hungary. They have decent to good troops (especially at the start of the war) and many decent plus a few good generals (though she has a lot of bad & very bad [Brudermann] ones in important places early on). If they do not waste them early on, and A-H starts to put the right people in the right places she can function as a true partner to Germany (though not near as powerful as Germany) and not a weakened dependent.
Very true. Unfortunately in this iteration of the TL the pre-war army gets ground up pretty badly anyway, but the equipment losses and devastating defeats don't happen. The big change will be the defensive posture from October on and the lack of need to liberate Przemysl, which cost enormous losses all around. The savings then will be mostly with the reservists that were activated after the initial mobilization rather than the pre-war army. Also there will be political, economic, social, and personnel benefits, the last being excellent officers like Auffenberg that don't lose their jobs early on.


*If Austria-Hungary were only wealthier, this was one of the best shipyards in the world at the time. If she could of just been able to afford a bigger fleet they could of built it easily (had in place OTL, the infrastructure to build three battleships at the same time).
IIRC their designs weren't all that good though. AH dreadnoughts weren't up to snuff as far as their likely opponents. Also the AHs didn't really need more than a coastal defense force, as they were a land power and their primary trade port was Hamburg, not anything on the Mediterranean, as they were off of the major trade routes and were very easily blocked in time of war.
 
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IIRC their designs weren't all that good though. AH dreadnoughts weren't up to snuff as far as their likely opponents. Also the AHs didn't really need more than a coastal defense force, as they were a land power and their primary trade port was Hamburg, not anything on the Mediterranean, as they were off of the major trade routes and were very easily blocked in time of war.

I agree even if they were wealthier the need for such a force would be prestige only. Thier navy was very adequite for the job it was intended for.

The Tegetthoff class was not the best, but considering they were all 1909 or earlier designs they were not that bad. The Monarch class that was supposed to follow them were compariable to Germany's newer dreadnoughts.

The Radetzky Pre-Dreadnought class was decent, but comparing them to the French Danton Pre-Dreadnought class is really not very fair. The Danton's were very advanced ships for the time, and were probably close to if not the best Pre-Dreadnoughts in the world.

The Tatra class destroyers were good, and the subs were decent. Though, they got better as the war went on, but the same can be said about Germany's subs too. Lastly, the Spaun & Spaun modified class light cruisers were decent but would be been great if they had better guns (was planned but shelved do to war costs). The Danube forces were the best on the river.
 
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Deleted member 1487

I agree even if they were wealthier the need for such a force would be prestige only. Thier navy was very adequite for the job it was intended for.

The Tegetthoff class was not the best, but considering they were all 1909 or earlier designs they were not that bad. The Monarch class that was supposed to follow them were compariable to Germany's newer dreadnoughts.

The Radetzky Pre-Dreadnought class was decent, but comparing them to the French Danton Pre-Dreadnought class is really not very fair. The Danton's were very advanced ships for the time, and were probably close to if not the best Pre-Dreadnoughts in the world.

The Tatra class destroyers were good, and the subs were decent. Though, they got better as the war went on, but the same can be said about Germany's subs too. Lastly, the Spaun & Spaun modified class light cruisers were decent but would be been great if they had better guns (was planned but shelved do to war costs).

I was just thinking about the dreadnoughts. Everything else pretty much was AFAIK comparable to the likely opponents.

The A-H navy was mostly a way to get some military spending through. FF seemed to think that any military spending was good, so even naval spending was worthwhile, especially when army spending increases couldn't get through the Ausgleich system. He also seemed quite smitten with the big ships too, so that probably helped naval spending appropriations.
 
I was just thinking about the dreadnoughts. Everything else pretty much was AFAIK comparable to the likely opponents.

The A-H navy was mostly a way to get some military spending through. FF seemed to think that any military spending was good, so even naval spending was worthwhile, especially when army spending increases couldn't get through the Ausgleich system. He also seemed quite smitten with the big ships too, so that probably helped naval spending appropriations.

Well, just about everyone in naval circles regardless of country felt that way too. The ironic thing is Austria-Hungary made good Light Cruisers and Destroyers, but not in large numbers. These are the exact type of ship (along with subs) that would be the most use to them during WW1. They might of got even more usage out of the navy for coastal and commerce raiding if they had built more of them. They would not be able to break the Otranto Barrage, but they would been able to punch holes in it (The Barrage was already useless against subs, so they might be able to break the whole thing til the Americans arrived).

Another thing is part of the reason St. Stephen was delayed in being built was Hungarian insistence it be built at Fiume, which lacked a shipyard big enough to build it. So, they had to expand the dry docks to build it. Fiume did however have the ability to make destroyers and cruisers just fine though. Again minus the prestige aspect Hungary could of made more money building more smaller ships. Lastly, in some aspects naval spending was easier to get than Army spending. Especially, in the case of smaller ships cause ship construction sent money to both halves of the monarchy. Lastly, unlike say Italy, naval fort coasts were taken from the army budget. So, even comparing Italian and Austrian-Hungarian naval budgets is misleading cause in the case of Austria-Hungary more of that money is going to ships and personnel.

Oh, I just thought of sneaky Austrian-Hungarian POD. When Germany was trying to stop the Italian vs Austrian-Hungarian naval race it was about Dreadnought spending. A sneaky Austria-Hungary might build only 3 Dreadnoughts but keep the high naval spending by building a bunch of Destroyers and fast Light Cruisers (see no more Dreadnoughts please ignore our 50 new destroyers and Light Cruisers) . Heck they could even justify it by adding up the need to counter all the British, French, and Russian ships in the Black Sea and Med.
 
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Deleted member 1487

October 1914 part 1

The first offensive:
By September 28th the German 9th army had finally assembled in Southern Silesia and advanced on Radom, which, in the oceans of mud that Poland turned into during the rainy season, took the better part of a week to reach. Simultaneously the Russian 9th army, having in conjunction with the 4th army, thrown the A-H 1st army back on Krasnk, south of Lublin, decided to shift its offensive over the Vistula to the West of Krasnik for a flanking attack, as A-H forces in conjunction with the Germany Landwehr corps Woyrsch had halted the Russian advance with the help of September rains, mud, and poor roads. This set up a meeting engagement of the German and Russian 9th armies in early October south of the city of Radom. This was also the first battle since the front had calmed in mid-September when the rains and exhaustion brought combat to an abrupt end and the start of a new round of offensives.

Ludendorff, Hindenburg's right hand, directed his forces straight at the Russian 9th army as it appeared in front of him, a juicy target which his forces outnumbered and outgunned. Fresh off of several crushing victories in East Prussia, the German 9th army forces, previously of the 8th army, was confident of victory, just as the Russian 9th army forces were confident having come off of smashing back the Central Powers forces East of the Vistula. But in war the bigger battalions usually win and in the case of the Germans they had more men and artillery, which decimated the Russians in open combat. Mud prevented the Germans from totally overwhelming the Russians, but it provided little cover from the German advance. Fleeing over the Vistula in the direction of fortified Ivangorod, the Russians finally found cover from the seemingly unstoppable Hindenburg. However the Russian 2nd army, reformed from its virtual destruction at Tannenberg, moved south toward Warsaw from its position near Novogeorgievsk along with the 1st army, which were to launch their own offensive toward Silesia. Further north the Russian 10th army regained all the ground lost in the Masurian lakes campaign.

Pulled south by the retreat of the 9th army, which was badly handled and capable of little more than defense, the Russian 2nd army engaged the German 9th army as it attempted to reduce Ivangorod and cross the Vistula. To the north the Russian 1st army marched toward Warsaw to cross the Vistula and head West into Germany. The Russian 2nd army stopped the German attempts to force the Vistula with the help Russian 9th army and the Ivangorod fortress, which fixed the Germans attention to the river as the Russian 1st army began crossing it to the North with the intention of attacking their flank.

To the South the A-H 1st army with the help of the Woyrsch corps and a detached corps from the A-H 4th army, the elite XIV corps, began their offensive on October 3rd against the now unsupported and outnumbered Russian 4th army. Using the large numbers of captured Russian artillery pieces and shells, they led a push on Lublin and the southern flank of Ivangorod. Though mud was a significant problem, the previous months had let the A-Hs build rail lines to Krasnik, which was now their rail head, much to the north of the pre-war rail lines which terminated south of the Polish border in Galicia. The Russian 4th army, though reinforced after their heavy losses in August and September, were outnumbered and tired from the September fighting. The A-H and German forces weren't much better off, but they had the advantage now of numbers and firepower. Smashing ahead the A-H 1st army bashed the Russian 4th army back into the city of Lublin, which they successfully had defended in August; this time the addition of the A-H XIV corps attacking from the East from Kholm turned their overloaded flank and forced them to retreat toward Ivangorod. The mud prevented a rout and stopped the A-Hs to the north of Lublin, far short of their objective of Ivangorod. The Russian 4th army, twice smashed up by A-H offensives, was far too weak to counter attack and just held near the town of Kurow.
 
Uhm ok. Have the Russians caught the stupid virus or something? They are trying to drive towards germany with the 1st and 2nd army while their flank is in danger of collapse. If the AH gives the 4th army a good push and drives towards Brest-Litovsk they can bag 4 complete field armies.

If that were to happen I´d think we´d see at least italian/romanian neutrality and early bulgarian entry, possibly some of the historical neutrals would flip as well. At the very least the western entente would have to do something remarkable to keep the russians in the war meaning a lot more effort have to be spent either on the west front or trying to come to the direct aid of the russians.

Anyway keep up the good work. Its an interesting "what if" since most just assume the AH is lolstupid and never explore the east front that much.
 

Deleted member 1487

Uhm ok. Have the Russians caught the stupid virus or something? They are trying to drive towards germany with the 1st and 2nd army while their flank is in danger of collapse. If the AH gives the 4th army a good push and drives towards Brest-Litovsk they can bag 4 complete field armies.

The AH 4th army is far too weak to accomplish that. It is also screened by the weak Russian 4th and 9th armies and the Russians 2nd army takes over screening the German 9th. Its pretty clear to the Russians that the weather and previous fighting had eaten deeply into Austrian muntion stocks and reserves, so they are going to launch their own offensive in East Galicia to sweep up all fo the AH armies in Galica, including the AH forces occupying Lublin and Kholm.

STAVKA had the following plan for their armies from north to south:
10th-invade East Prussia again to fix the remainder of the German 8th army
1st-head south into Poland to take part in an offensive against Silesia
2nd-same as 1st, but also fix/deal with the German 9th army when it appears
9th-advance into Poland to cover the flank of the 2nd army AND work with the 4th army to attack the flank of the AH 4th army
4th-fix the AH 4th army frontally so that the Russian 9th army can attack its flank and collapse its position; when this is done advance into Galicia
5th-fix the AH 5th army as part of the East Galicia offensive
3rd and 8th-attack directly into the AH 3rd and 2nd armies respectively to aid the attack out of Poland, hopefully overloading the Austrian defenses and clearing everything north of the Carpathian mountains
Russian Dniester Group-invade Bukowina

The Russians were not sure where the German 9th army was forming exactly or where it was to operate, but they thought that their Polish invasion would meet it and with their superior numbers overwhelm it as they invaded Silesia. They thought the AHs were too weakened to launch an offensive as spies were feeding them information about AH material and manpower weakness in East Galica and that they are building trenches. That is a sign of weakness to the Russians, who aim to hit them before they can entrench deeply.
 
Ok so stupid virus then. Attacking at the same time with 6 armies is beyond their capabilities. I doubt they ever had them. I suppose they could feed men into the grinder but lacking supplies for anything near that is just going get a lot of people die for nothing.

I dont want to sound condecending but do STAVKA actually believe this will work? I mean they cant be high on victory at this point after their less than stellar performance especially since this is going a lot worse than OTL. Also with the eastern front being less of a crisis did the germans grab some extra space in the west? I hardly think they would be as urgent in shifting their forces in this scenario.

Anyway a good read. Keep it up. :)
 
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Deleted member 1487

Ok so stupid virus then. Attacking at the same time with 6 armies is beyond their capabilities. I doubt they ever had them. I suppose they could feed men into the grinder but lacking supplies for anything near that is just going get a lot of people die for nothing.

The Russians did just that IOTL in October-December 1914. I'm not getting why you are saying they didn't have the capability to do what they did IOTL, just ITTL with a somewhat different strategic situation and position of those armies. The Russians had plenty of supplies until about April 1915 when they had spent all winter trying to bash their way through the Carpathians. Even then they left huge stores in their fortresses in Poland, rather than distribute them to their field armies which needed them.
Norman Stone spends a significant amount of his "Eastern Front 1914-1917" talking about the Russian supply and production situation, which even ITTL with its changes would not mean that the Russians have lost the materials that let them conduct their offensives in late October-December and January-April.

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I dont want to sound condecending but do STAVKA actually believe this will work? I mean they cant be high on victory at this point after their less than stellar performance especially since this is going a lot worse than OTL. Also with the eastern front being less of a crisis did the germans grab some extra space in the west? I hardly think they would be as urgent in shifting their forces in this scenario.
STAVKA made a number of poor decisions IOTL in 1914-1917. Part of the problem too is divided command, as STAVKA didn't have total control over planning and operations in 1914; the Fronts had major power to control their sectors and allocated men/supplies, which STAVKA lacked the power to appropriate. In fact for some time STAVKA only could allocate reserves from the interior and once they were allocated they couldn't retrieve them from the Fronts. Of course there was a ton of political infighting between the Fronts and STAVKA, so that made planning a bitch.

STAVKA is overestimating their position, much like they did IOTL because the AHs are pretty weak after the August-September campaign. Also the Russians have much shorter supply lines than IOTL, plus have just finished their mobilization, so have tons of fresh infantry compared to the AHs. STAVKA is also not solely the one making decisions here; the Front commanders are also of the 'cult of the offensive' and want to use their 'steamrollers' to run over their enemies now that they have their latest infusions of fresh manpower and material. Also the French are begging for help, just like IOTL, which was the cause of the OTL Silesian offensive. The Russian commanders want to help and think that the numerical superiority that they've finally achieved will bring them victory because the Germans and A-Hs have had their troops worn down and gotten minimal replacements since September.
 
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BlondieBC

Banned
I was just thinking about the dreadnoughts. Everything else pretty much was AFAIK comparable to the likely opponents.

The A-H navy was mostly a way to get some military spending through. FF seemed to think that any military spending was good, so even naval spending was worthwhile, especially when army spending increases couldn't get through the Ausgleich system. He also seemed quite smitten with the big ships too, so that probably helped naval spending appropriations.

Were you thinking about trying to do surface actions with the A-H capital fleet? Unless A-H knows Italy will not enter the war, you have some pretty limited options. A-H does need the dreads at home. It is not glorious work, but you don't want the Italian Fleet trying to either break your minefields and coastal defenses in the Adriatic. Dreads make the planning for the Italians on any such operation much more challenging, and will force Italy to bring out their dreads to support any major operations. And close to home ports, the A-H smaller ships have a good chance of major victories against the Italians. It is a bit simplistic to state, but basically you can't have smaller ships perform task such as trying to clear a mine field or provide fire support for a raid if the enemy has dreads firing at them. The other role will be to try to break smaller ships out of the Adriatic in force. To clear French mine fields early in the war, it helps a lot if you have more capital ships on the field than the French.

Now if you get Italy not to enter the war, A-H begins to have more options but they carry high risks. Operations like preventing the sea borne evacuation of Serbians from Albania would have a lot of merit, as would trying to break out some of the capital ships to the Med to either intercept convoys or head to an Ottoman port. Any break out has huge risks since the A-H will always be outnumber in the theater and the A-H admiral has to count on superior intelligence or luck to gain local superiority.
 

Deleted member 1487

Were you thinking about trying to do surface actions with the A-H capital fleet? Unless A-H knows Italy will not enter the war, you have some pretty limited options. A-H does need the dreads at home. It is not glorious work, but you don't want the Italian Fleet trying to either break your minefields and coastal defenses in the Adriatic. Dreads make the planning for the Italians on any such operation much more challenging, and will force Italy to bring out their dreads to support any major operations. And close to home ports, the A-H smaller ships have a good chance of major victories against the Italians. It is a bit simplistic to state, but basically you can't have smaller ships perform task such as trying to clear a mine field or provide fire support for a raid if the enemy has dreads firing at them. The other role will be to try to break smaller ships out of the Adriatic in force. To clear French mine fields early in the war, it helps a lot if you have more capital ships on the field than the French.

Now if you get Italy not to enter the war, A-H begins to have more options but they carry high risks. Operations like preventing the sea borne evacuation of Serbians from Albania would have a lot of merit, as would trying to break out some of the capital ships to the Med to either intercept convoys or head to an Ottoman port. Any break out has huge risks since the A-H will always be outnumber in the theater and the A-H admiral has to count on superior intelligence or luck to gain local superiority.

No, the AH position navally is much the same as it was IOTL: threatened by Italy whether Italy is a belligerent or not. Therefore the navy needs to stay on coastal defense duty. As it is AH is not getting trade during war time via the Adriatic, other than local Italian, Greek, or Ottoman trade, as the entrances to the Mediterranean are controlled by Britain. Hamburg is far more important to imports that opening up Trieste to trade.

One point I should make is that ITTL, just as IOTL the Ottomans close the Dardanelles on October 1st to trade, which cuts the Russians off from external trade and military imports from their allies. It was the start of their economic collapse IOTL and won't help their position ITTL.
 
Wiking correct me if I am wrong:

Like 2 years ago Wiking and I discussed fleet options for A-H, and frankly it came down to Haus would not consider anything risky. Plus as BlondieBC pointed out the Dreadnoughts need to stay in port. So, you are really stuck with the U Boats, Spaun and modified Spaun light cruisers. The Tatra class destroyers also were good in support roles, but only in the Adriatic.

Sending a few U-boats to help the Ottomans is probably the only thing they might do. von Trapp, Singule, and Lerch are three best anti-warship U boat commanders. In Lerch's case his career was cut short when an Italian warship by per chance ran over and sank his ship in the Lagoon of Venice. Lerch is the guy that hit the Jean Bart sending her limping back to Malta for 3-4 months.

The only other thing might be sending the Spaun &/or one of the three modified Spauns to the Black Sea. All four had roughly the same speed as the Breslau, but had weaker deck guns. Though the Spaun & Novara had 6 torpedo tubes to the Breslau's two. However, sending the Cruisers is probably close to if not ASB considering the personality of Haus. You would need someone like Horthy taking the Novara (took command in December 1914) and possibly one other ship and going rogue or something.

In regards to Uboat I recently found a good site that might help if you want to go into that: http://uboat.net/index.html

Wiking thanks again for re-starting the timeline and good luck.
 

Deleted member 1487

Part 2: East Galicia in October

East Galicia

In East Galicia the Russian Southwest Front was ordered on the offensive to support the serious situation in Poland by attacking again the A-H forces holding the line north of the Carpathians. Having been reinforced by reservists, the Russian replacements lack the skill and experience of the previous assaulters, but were still in a much better position than the A-Hs, who had received their reservists too, which were mostly 3rd line soldiers in their late 30s and 40s. The East Galician A-H forces were worn down from constant fighting, which limited their offensive power. They were content to remain on the defensive for now especially because of their low stocks of artillery shells, which could be economized on the defensive. Having had limited stocks pre-war, even with obsolete artillery the A-H forces had burned through stocks rapidly. A-H had not produced any shells since the start of the war due to total lack of explosives, which they had depended on Germany for pre-war, which left them with limited numbers of shells to fight in October.

The offensive of the 1st army had taken up much the remaining stockpiles and stocks captured from the Russians. Also the A-H 4th army had given away its best remaining and least attritted corps for the Lublin offensive, so was limited in its ability to defeat a serious offensive. Luckily for them the Russian 5th army, recently reconstituted, was not organizationally prepared for an offensive, so contributed the only fresh corps they had to the wider offensive against Lemberg.

The 2nd army on the Sereth was comparatively well off, as its commander, Böhm-Ermolli, had fought a defensive battle and spared his troops the worst of the fighting. They had badly mauled the Russian 8th army, as it had to attack through rough terrain against some of the best A-H troops and generals. Despite Brusilov's skill and the skills of his subordinates, Böhm-Ermolli made him pay dearly for the ground gained in August; the counterattacks of September had been then comparatively easy against a worn opponent, though it had weakened the infantry when the Russian artillery got a chance to fight on the defensive. Still, by October it was the least attritted A-H army on the Eastern Front against an army, the Russian 8th, which had spent much of its pre-war infantry attacking dug in A-H positions in the hills of East Galicia. Now Böhm-Ermolli's troops were fell fortified on the Sereth river and were going to be very hard to budge.

On the south end of the line the Dnieper Group south of the river was still intact and in fact expanded its numbers with Landsturm and Gendarmie units; unfortunately the Russians had formed a new army against them with fresh reservists. The A-Hs had the advantage of having successful combat experience in the previous months, but now were outnumbered by lots of fresh enemy troops with significantly more artillery support. The Russians would use their advantages to the utmost in the coming offensive.

The Russian offensive began against the A-H 3rd and 2nd armies on the Bug and Sereth rivers on October 10th, while attacking the Dniester Group with their new army group south of the Dniester. They still had to deal with the consequences of the rains though, which was a major obstacle to overcome in East Galicia. The roads and terrain was some of the worst north of the Carpathians, which hampered the ability of the Russians to push forward, something the tired A-H troops were extremely thankful for.

But that didn't help when the Russian artillery bombardments of the Austrian positions. Leveraging their advantage in artillery tubes and shell stocks, generals Brusilov and Ruzski focused their assaults against key points in the Austrian lines supported by the large guns attached to their army to break the strongpoint defenses. Thanks partly to the depleted shell stocks of the Austrians and their depleted infantry ranks, the initial assaults succeeded, though at high cost. Austrian artillery stayed back out of range of Russian guns and only engaged Russian infantry when they began their attacks to conserve their munitions and inflict maximum damage with what they had. Shrapnel shells tore bloody holes in the ranks of the assaulting enemy, but Russian artillery blasted the Austrians out of their trenches and dugouts, leaving the surviving Russians to occupy the wreckage and capture the stunned survivors.

The AH 3rd army, the worst hit of all AH forces thus far in the war, crumpled under the new assault and retreated its right wing toward the Gnila Lipa. The left remained strongly anchored on the Bug river thanks to support from the AH 4th army against efforts by the Russian 5th army to force the river defenses at Kamionka. Busk though fell, meaning the 3rd army had to reform its center miles to the West. The collapse of the 3rd army once again forced the AH 2nd army to retreat under heavy frontal pressure from Russian 8th army and the threat to its flank from the Russian 3rd. The fighting withdrawal of the 2nd army strongly echoed the fighting of August, where Böhm-Ermolli's forces bloodied the nose of Brusilov's forces, which were held up by the mud and poor roads, which gave the Austrians time to reform their lines before each phased withdrawal. Skillfully conducted, the fall back of the 2nd army preserved its strength and sapped its enemy's. Still though the major retreat over the same mud and roads that were hampering the Russians proved exhausting, meaning there was no question of a counterattack to restore the front further East. It was a major embarrassment that the Austrian forces gave up so much ground so quickly, but it was necessary to avoid a bigger disaster. The lines stabilized on the Gnila Lipa after a tired 2nd army hauled itself across the river. The shortness of the line now let the Austrians establish positions south of the Dniester, which were supported by a series of fortified bridgeheads, mini-fortresses built pre-war in case the Dniester became the front line in an invasion. The Dniester was a wide, strong current river, so crossings were few and far between, which thankfully let the AHs concentrate on their fortified bridgeheads, such as Halicz. The Russians were equally exhausted and had also exhausted much of their shell stocks, so couldn't conquer these fortifications when confronting them. Stymied, the Russian offensive had ground to an end by November 10th north of the Dniester.

South of the Dniester was a different story. The badly outnumbered and gunned Austrians found their positions constantly pushed back, both by the need to keep their flank protected from the Russian 8th army's advance north of the river and the pressure of the Russian Dniester Group. Trading space for time and lives, the Austrians fought a delaying campaign to hurt the Russians as best they could without falling victim to Russian artillery. Czernowitz fell on October 15th, which left Bukowina fully open to Russian occupation, which they had largely completed by November. AH guerillas, mainly Jews targeted by the Cossacks run amok through their Shtetls, fought for control of the countryside, which was never pacified by the Russians. Outside of large cities they exerted little control and Russian detachments avoided movement after dark if possible. Eduard Fischer, a Jewish Austrian Colonel of the Bukowina Gendarme, organized resistance in the province after the AH army had retreated, mainly basing his operations out of Gura Humora, a town on the edge on one of the only rail lines through the Carpathians into Bukowina. This gave his forces supply from Hungary, which expanded resistance as more villages and towns were attacked by the Russians.

The main army south of the Dniester fall back on Kolomea to the west to defend the important mountain passes through the Carpathians into Hungary. They successfully were able to hold with extra reinforcements in the form of the retired general Pflanzer-Baltin and his motley crew of various 4th line troops from Transsylvania defending the passes there from Romania. Thus expanded and with the 2nd army now defending the Dniester from their north against the Russian 8th army, Pflanzer-Baltin was able to easily halt the overextended Russians. This Russian Dniester Group was nominally upgraded to the 11th army in November after their occupation of Bukowina.
 
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elkarlo

Banned
Speaking of intel. The AH empire seemed to have really good spies/ sabotage

Not losing galacia must be great for ÀH and it's agriculture RRs and industries. Just saying
 
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Deleted member 1487

Speaking of intel. The AH empire seemed to have really good spies/ sabotage

I'll have to do some research again into the Evidenzbüro, so it might be a little while before I post something on that.
 

Deleted member 1487

Speaking of intel. The AH empire seemed to have really good spies/ sabotage

Not losing galacia must be great for ÀH and it's agriculture RRs and industries. Just saying

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evidenzbuero
A bit of info for you.

And yes, preventing the loss of Galicia and over 1,500 locomotives as well as more than 10,000 box cars is very help. The prevention of the loss of Galician oil fields (to this point in the story) is extremely helpful, as is the prevention of the loss of the province with 50% of A-H horses and 1/3rd their food production. Of course with Russia taking East Galicia and Bukowina, there is still some loss of the above, plus some mining in Bukowina which is important.



Edit:
If anyone is knowledgeable about the Ottoman Empire in WW1 please PM me.
 
Here is a map of the most important A-H Oil region circled. It produces 85% to 90% of Austria-Hungary's oil. By 1914 A-H was down to the 4th or 5th largest producer of Oil in the World. She had been 3rd in 1909. OTL a bunch of private investment was made in 1913 to upgrade storage, refinery (constant problem; as she lacked capacity to refine what she produced), and production. Transportation was another issue, but with a war going on not much is going to happen on that front. However, due to the events of 1914 OTL this money was all wasted as the Oil wells were destroyed and/or abandoned due to the losses in Galicia during WW1.

You keep the red circle producing and you keep 6 to 7 million barrels a year of Oil flowing. You could probably get more with better storage and/or efficient transport of oil out of the area. Though, A-H had good drilling and wells. She lost a lot of Oil to storage and seepage issues.

EastGaliciaOil Fields.gif
 
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