What would it take for John Connally to be the Democratic nominee in 1968? What would be the outcome of the election, esp. if Nixon decides to run like OTL? Would Nixon still initiate a Southern Strategy?
 
Off the top of my head...

John Connally was once described as being a man who was only comfortable in a $1000 suit and surrounded by other men similarly attired, or something to that effect. He was the epitome of the conservative Democrat and would have drawn opposition from the progressive wing of the party even in a year that was not 1968. Part of the reason JFK was in Dallas in 1963 was to smooth over a split between the Connally/conservative wing of the party and the progressive wing of Yarborough and others that developed after Connally was elected Governor in 1962.

As the nominee in 1968, Connally would have been the one figure who could actually drive a liberal to run third party. He was pro-war and pro-business and not considered solid on any issue of concern to liberals. If you think the Convention in Chicago was ugly, a Convention about to nominate Connally would have been...interesting, to say the least.

But I really have a hard time coming up with a scenario where he does get nominated. This was the last cycle before the McGovern-Fraser reforms and party bosses still had a lot of sway in who the nominee would be. Another Texan after LBJ is tough enough, but Connally wasn't a favorite of anyone but the most conservative pro-business Democrats. Labor would have had a problem, the civil rights activists would have had a problem and the anti-war activists would have had a problem. The party splits a thousand ways and many Democrats stay home or, if someone like McCarthy goes third party -- well 4th party in '68 -- vote for that. Interestingly, Nixon probably doesn't need to implement a Southern strategy as the Democratic party split does that work for him. You probably wind up with a fairly sizable Nixon win as Nixon sits back and allows Democrats to eat each other.

If you really want this to work, therefore, you have to change John B. Connally. You need to make him all the things he wasn't in OTL. One scenario along these lines would be some kind of liberal conversion, no RFK running for some reason and Connally waving the bloody shirt of Dallas and claiming to be the heir of JFK. The POD there is probably Dallas and some kind of reaction to the assassination which is life-changing and profound. Here, you would be talking about the trauma of being shot and spattered with JFK's blood and brains having a much different effect on him than OTL. This isn't great, but it's the best I can come up with.
 
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