Reading God's Playground, I came accross a paragraph dealing with a crisis over Poland at the Congress of Vienna. Apparently Castlereagh put around a paper on an independant Poland in response to Russian and Prussian plans for Russia to take all of Poland and Prussia to take all of Saxony. This set off a crisis (oh its there in Wikipedia) which could have led to war. The book says this was precluded by Napoleons return and hundred days, making everyone remember who their real enemy was. Wikipedia says Russia didn't rise to the challenge and the Prussian and Russian plans were dropped for a comprimise. Both Wikipedia and God's Playground say Talleyrand got France, Austria, and Britain to sign a treaty in case of war.
So what if something happened to Napoleon before he escapes. Sickness, getting shot by guards trying to escape (were there guards?), or whatever. Napoleon dies before he escapes and the the congress falls apart into war.
Who would win?
Austria, France and Britain or
Russia and Prussia.
In the case of A,F,B winning, what would the independant Poland look like, or Europe for that matter? Would Poland be under a Hapsburg duke, or maybe put it in Union with Saxony? Would Prussia be disembered further? What would happen to Russia? How about France?