Congress of Vienna breaks down over Poland; War happens

Reading God's Playground, I came accross a paragraph dealing with a crisis over Poland at the Congress of Vienna. Apparently Castlereagh put around a paper on an independant Poland in response to Russian and Prussian plans for Russia to take all of Poland and Prussia to take all of Saxony. This set off a crisis (oh its there in Wikipedia) which could have led to war. The book says this was precluded by Napoleons return and hundred days, making everyone remember who their real enemy was. Wikipedia says Russia didn't rise to the challenge and the Prussian and Russian plans were dropped for a comprimise. Both Wikipedia and God's Playground say Talleyrand got France, Austria, and Britain to sign a treaty in case of war.

So what if something happened to Napoleon before he escapes. Sickness, getting shot by guards trying to escape (were there guards?), or whatever. Napoleon dies before he escapes and the the congress falls apart into war.

Who would win?
Austria, France and Britain or
Russia and Prussia.

In the case of A,F,B winning, what would the independant Poland look like, or Europe for that matter? Would Poland be under a Hapsburg duke, or maybe put it in Union with Saxony? Would Prussia be disembered further? What would happen to Russia? How about France?
 
Reading God's Playground, I came accross a paragraph dealing with a crisis over Poland at the Congress of Vienna. Apparently Castlereagh put around a paper on an independant Poland in response to Russian and Prussian plans for Russia to take all of Poland and Prussia to take all of Saxony. This set off a crisis (oh its there in Wikipedia) which could have led to war. The book says this was precluded by Napoleons return and hundred days, making everyone remember who their real enemy was. Wikipedia says Russia didn't rise to the challenge and the Prussian and Russian plans were dropped for a comprimise. Both Wikipedia and God's Playground say Talleyrand got France, Austria, and Britain to sign a treaty in case of war.

So what if something happened to Napoleon before he escapes. Sickness, getting shot by guards trying to escape (were there guards?), or whatever. Napoleon dies before he escapes and the the congress falls apart into war.

Who would win?
Austria, France and Britain or
Russia and Prussia.

In the case of A,F,B winning, what would the independant Poland look like, or Europe for that matter? Would Poland be under a Hapsburg duke, or maybe put it in Union with Saxony? Would Prussia be disembered further? What would happen to Russia? How about France?

I think the various powers would probably come to their collective senses before war actually broke out, but Prussian and Russian brinksmanship may get them most of their desired goals. The British will probably start looking at France and Austria (the prospective allies in this little post-Napoleonic shin dig) and decide they are not the most reliable allies, and the war would be over POLAND, who honestly, no cares about, least of all the British. So the Prussians get Saxony, Russia gets Poland, and the Polish nationalists have a bigger arena in which to work? The Austrians get revenge by letting Polish nationalists have a free hand in Galacia, or trade Galacia to Russia for support in Germany as well? The Austrians and Prussians end up partitioning Germany more or less, giving both many more Germans. That would probably favor the Austrians for German leadership, but then again the Hapsburgs are generally counter-productively conservative and/or mentally and physically handicapped, so they probably don't take this opportunity.
 
Here we go.
Castlereagh wrote his Memorial on Poland (23 october).
It proposed three solutions
A) A return to pre 1772 borders (unlikely, but if war happens and extreme victory over russia and prussia, could happen, but still least likely)

B)A return to 1791 borders, with the may 3 constitution, which would make the state far smaller but more efficient (more likely)

C)A different partition of the Duchy of Warsaw alond the vistula (most likely but Russia hated because Prussia, or Austria would get lions share)

I think if Poland got her independance, it would be along the lines of option B, but perhaps slightly enlarged. More of Prussia than Russia, hopefully.

People stopped caring about Poland at around 1840, not before. The Russians put up a pretense of liberalising Poland, and when the poles still weren't happy, everyone thought they were ungratefull. Before that, independant poland was still discussed by European liberals. So Poland was still cared about, but the Prussians and Russians put up an effective propaganda machine regarding them. This hadn't started at this point.
 
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