Congress of Vienna ATL ideas

[Disraeli2004]

Just thought I'd chuck a few out there:

Austria keeps the Austrian Netherlands and does not receive Lombardy
Poland resurrected as a buffer state
Prussia receives all of Saxony rather than the Rhineland (Kingdom of Westphalia kept in place)
Holy Roman Empire resurrected at Vienna

Are any of these good ideas, or Time-line creating worthy? 1 and 3 and 4 change the course of German unification to some degree.

 

[Disraeli2004]

In terms of the Poland timeline, I would need some help because my knowledge of Polish history is quite shaky, and it's also difficult to think how the Tsar could be pleased without significant Polish annexations.

 

[Comte de Dordogne]

I had read an article which explained that if Prussia had taken over Saxony instead of the Rhineland it would not have demanded as much for a twelfth union because it did not own land on the other side of Germany. This could have many consequences for German unificatio
I find it very difficult to see the Austrians taking over the Austrian Netherlands, the priority in Austria was to create a centre of gravity around Vienna, and Lombardy-Venetia was part of that.

 

[Steno]

In terms of the Poland timeline, I would need some help because my knowledge of Polish history is quite shaky, and it's also difficult to think how the Tsar could be pleased without significant Polish annexations.

Poland was actually partially brought back in OTL. Tsar Alexander fought for the establishment of a semi independent Polish state, and was supported by people like Czartoryski. He faced a lot of opposition from the other great powers, however. Prussia was still unsure whether they would be compensated in the west, so they were unlikely to easily give up their Polish land. Likewise, Austria had little reason to want to give up her populous Polish provinces, especially given how much she had lost in the Napoleonic wars.

So you have a couple of options for the establishment of an truly independent Poland:
1. Alexander is more successful in the war against Napoleon, and has fewer people push back against his plans. Maybe he manages to become the great general he always wanted to be and “commands” an army that defeats Napoleon personally.
2. Alexander is made king of Congress Poland like OTL, but after his death the Kingdom splits off and gets its own Romanov branch for some reason.
3. My personal favorite but pretty unlikely unless we go pretty far back. If we change the situation of occupied territories a little more we can achieve a scenario where perhaps France (or a new “Rhineland” state) gets the western land that OTL went to Prussia. Prussia, in turn, demands to be compensated with the entirety of Saxony. Like OTL, there is a large public outcry about dismantling King Frederick Augustus’ domain but the Prussians win the day. Then Frederick is offered the crown of Poland with “Congress Poland esque” borders. He would have the most legitimate claim to a Polish Kingship. I don’t think this scenario is very plausible and it’s more likely to lead to war but I suppose it could happen.

Now to call in the real experts @alexmilman @Jan Olbracht

 

[JackLumber]

Why does everyone think the plan was the rest off Saxony for the Rhineland, it was the rest of Saxony for Poznan (which is what Russia wanted)

 

[GameBawesome]

What if the HRE was restored, but it’s just OTL German Confederation, with a different name, and a Holy Roman Emperor. I wonder how would it change history, since OTL Frederick Wilhelm IV was offered the crown of German Emperor, but refused it because one of the reasons, was he wanted to restore the HRE, and would only take the Crown, if the Prince-electors offered it.

If the HRE, and the Holy Roman Emperor still existed in 1848, is it possibly for German Princes to offer the Title of Holy Roman Emperor to Frederick Wilhelm IV, to help stabilize the HRE, leading to a more centralized empire?

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Wouldn't it be Frederick William III at Vienna in 1815? FWIV wouldn't succeed until 1840 IOTL after all.

Anyway, what about the Habsburgs getting the Austrian Netherlands + Liège (so OTL Belgium plus Luxembourg)? Would Sardinia and other Italian powers demand Austrian concessions on Italy as compensation?

 

[Disraeli2004]

What if the HRE was restored, but it’s just OTL German Confederation, with a different name, and a Holy Roman Emperor. I wonder how would it change history, since OTL Frederick Wilhelm IV was offered the crown of German Emperor, but refused it because one of the reasons, was he wanted to restore the HRE, and would only take the Crown, if the Prince-electors offered it.

If the HRE, and the Holy Roman Emperor still existed in 1848, is it possibly for German Princes to offer the Title of Holy Roman Emperor to Frederick Wilhelm IV, to help stabilize the HRE, leading to a more centralized empire?

It'd still give a significant prestige boost to the Austrians and make Prussian unification seem more unthinkable, because the HRE had surrived for more than 1000 years and the Austrian ruler would still formally be "emperor of the Germans". That's still if it functioned exactly identically to the German confederation.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

I like the part of Poland resurrection. I have a lot of sympathy for Poland, for some reason...

 

[GameBawesome]

It'd still give a significant prestige boost to the Austrians and make Prussian unification seem more unthinkable, because the HRE had surrived for more than 1000 years and the Austrian ruler would still formally be "emperor of the Germans". That's still if it functioned exactly identically to the German confederation.

True, the Austrians would have a huge amount of prestige with the tile of Holy Roman Emperor, but if the tides of revolution in 1848 and the call of German unification comes, would the Habsburg take that opportunity?

To me, I don’t think they would. If they don’t take the opportunity to unify the Empire. They might cut the Austrians out of the plan, and elect a different House ruling the Holy Roman Empire instead of the Habsburgs. And the only two candidates I see, are either the Wittlesbachs or the Hohenzollerns

 

[Disraeli2004]

True, the Austrians would have a huge amount of prestige with the tile of Holy Roman Emperor, but if the tides of revolution in 1848 and the call of German unification comes, would the Habsburg take that opportunity?

To me, I don’t think they would. If they don’t take the opportunity to unify the Empire. They might cut the Austrians out of the plan, and elect a different House ruling the Holy Roman Empire instead of the Habsburgs. And the only two candidates I see, are either the Wittlesbachs or the Hohenzollerns

I don't think this changes 1848 very much, I agree with you, although it may have more spectacle (there might, for instance, be a forced dissolution) that could change things. It does effect how Prussia could unify Germany, though, as their actions would be more incredulous and the Kleindeutschland solution less tenable when the Hapsburgs remain emperors of Germany de jure.

 

[Disraeli2004]

Why does everyone think the plan was the rest off Saxony for the Rhineland, it was the rest of Saxony for Poznan (which is what Russia wanted)

The British wanted the Prussians to have the Rhineland because they were concerned about having both Austria and Prussia having no presence on the French border because Austria didn't want Belgium back

 

[alexmilman]

Poland was actually partially brought back in OTL. Tsar Alexander fought for the establishment of a semi independent Polish state, and was supported by people like Czartoryski. He faced a lot of opposition from the other great powers, however. Prussia was still unsure whether they would be compensated in the west, so they were unlikely to easily give up their Polish land. Likewise, Austria had little reason to want to give up her populous Polish provinces, especially given how much she had lost in the Napoleonic wars.

So you have a couple of options for the establishment of an truly independent Poland:
1. Alexander is more successful in the war against Napoleon, and has fewer people push back against his plans. Maybe he manages to become the great general he always wanted to be and “commands” an army that defeats Napoleon personally.
2. Alexander is made king of Congress Poland like OTL, but after his death the Kingdom splits off and gets its own Romanov branch for some reason.
3. My personal favorite but pretty unlikely unless we go pretty far back. If we change the situation of occupied territories a little more we can achieve a scenario where perhaps France (or a new “Rhineland” state) gets the western land that OTL went to Prussia. Prussia, in turn, demands to be compensated with the entirety of Saxony. Like OTL, there is a large public outcry about dismantling King Frederick Augustus’ domain but the Prussians win the day. Then Frederick is offered the crown of Poland with “Congress Poland esque” borders. He would have the most legitimate claim to a Polish Kingship. I don’t think this scenario is very plausible and it’s more likely to lead to war but I suppose it could happen.

Now to call in the real experts @alexmilman @Jan Olbracht

On a purely practical level (aka, putting aside considerations of morale, justice, etc.) restoration of Poland was not a good idea by a number of reasons:
1. Internationally, it did not make Prussia and Austria happy because it could give their Poles the wrong ideas.
2. The Poles were not too happy because the resulting state was smaller than they wanted and because it was not completely independent.
3. In Russia it did not generate any happiness because (a) the Polish leaders immediately started pushing Alexander into expansion of the Congress Poland to pre-Partition size (minus Austrian part) by including the now Russian governorships of Lithuania and Belorussia, (b) by many Russians it was seen as rewarding the enemies and rebels (from Lithuania) with something greater than Russia had (constitutional government) (*) and (c) by many it was considered a time bomb due to the Polish “ungrateful and rebellious nature”.

So the only truly happy person was, seemingly, Alexander himself but the problem is that in the past two centuries nobody managed to figure out what exactly were his political goals and how Congress Poland fit into them: surely, state with a liberal constitution did not easily fit into the main goal of the Holy Alliance, restraining of liberalism in Europe. Not that it is easy to imagine a stable co-existence of the increasingly reactionary Russia (process started during Alexander’s reign) and liberal Poland in the terms of a common foreign policy. Union with Finland was “easier” by a number of reasons.

IMO, Alexander’s main goal was to show something for the efforts of the Napoleonic Wars and, being an ultimate narcissist, he expected that the Russians would be happy with an addition of one more item to his imperial title. Well, probably he also expected outpored love and adoration from the Poles, just as he expected them from the Brits before the visit. In both cases, tough luck. 🤪

(*) As far as the constitutional government is involved, the Russian liberals were unhappy because Russia did not get it and Russians conservatives because they considered it as being a bad example.

 

[Disraeli2004]

I should mention that you'd probably actually ahve to combine the "Austrian Netherlands" POD to get a Prussian Saxony, because the UK pushed for Rhenish Prussia because they wanted a German great power on the border with France to contain it.

Poland is looking complicated, to say the least. I'll still keep the poll option open so we can explore options about Poland, but it's going to be an uphill struggle, and especially given my knowledge of Polish history is shaky. At the momment I'm just collating ideas for an alternate Vienna and seeing which do and don't get postiive reactions.

 

[Steno]

On a purely practical level (aka, putting aside considerations of morale, justice, etc.) restoration of Poland was not a good idea by a number of reasons:
1. Internationally, it did not make Prussia and Austria happy because it could give their Poles the wrong ideas.
2. The Poles were not too happy because the resulting state was smaller than they wanted and because it was not completely independent.
3. In Russia it did not generate any happiness because (a) the Polish leaders immediately started pushing Alexander into expansion of the Congress Poland to pre-Partition size (minus Austrian part) by including the now Russian governorships of Lithuania and Belorussia, (b) by many Russians it was seen as rewarding the enemies and rebels (from Lithuania) with something greater than Russia had (constitutional government) (*) and (c) by many it was considered a time bomb due to the Polish “ungrateful and rebellious nature”.

So the only truly happy person was, seemingly, Alexander himself but the problem is that in the past two centuries nobody managed to figure out what exactly were his political goals and how Congress Poland fit into them: surely, state with a liberal constitution did not easily fit into the main goal of the Holy Alliance, restraining of liberalism in Europe. Not that it is easy to imagine a stable co-existence of the increasingly reactionary Russia (process started during Alexander’s reign) and liberal Poland in the terms of a common foreign policy. Union with Finland was “easier” by a number of reasons.

IMO, Alexander’s main goal was to show something for the efforts of the Napoleonic Wars and, being an ultimate narcissist, he expected that the Russians would be happy with an addition of one more item to his imperial title. Well, probably he also expected outpored love and adoration from the Poles, just as he expected them from the Brits before the visit. In both cases, tough luck. 🤪

(*) As far as the constitutional government is involved, the Russian liberals were unhappy because Russia did not get it and Russians conservatives because they considered it as being a bad example.

All true, but Alexander was both determined and either stupid or just willingly ignorant of the contradiction between his “liberal” ideas and position as Tsar so perhaps if he is more successful he could push a real restoration through, no matter how detrimental it would be to peace. Maybe he’d try it and end up like Paul.

 

[alexmilman]

All true, but Alexander was both determined and either stupid or just willingly ignorant of the contradiction between his “liberal” ideas and position as Tsar so perhaps if he is more successful he could push a real restoration through, no matter how detrimental it would be to peace. Maybe he’d try it and end up like Paul.

Alexander’s views were a confusing mixture of liberal ideas (by education and by the circle of the liberal friends of his youth and early reign) and extreme conservatism on almost a genetic level.

Pro Polish factors:

As a narcissist he was a good target for the prominent Polish figures who were flattering him as a way to get what they wanted (a much bigger Polish state, at some point he was favorably considering such an expansion). Plus, resting a constitutionalstate would attend to his “liberal side”. Not conducting similar reform in Russia was explained by the Russian “unreadiness” for it.

For whatever it was worth, Adam Cartoryzsky was (with A’s approval) boyfriend of A’s wife and Alexander’s official mistress, Maria Naryshkina, was by birth Polish Princess Maria Czetwertyńska-Swiatopelk. 😍

Contra Polish factors:

Alexander was well aware of the fate of his father (being implicated in a coup) and when he received an open pushback from the Russians on the idea of Polish expansion by adding the parts of the Russian Empire, he immediately backpedalled on the schema.

I suspect that creation of a greater Polish state even at the Russian expense would face diplomatic resistance afrom Austria and Prussia due to a suspicion that a more powerful Polish state may be emboldened to start appealing to their Poles. Russian ability (and willingness) to control such a state (with a bigger army than in OTL) would be anybody’s guess.

As a general thought, IMO, while trying to play his own Foreign Minister, Alexander was a lousy diplomat both in the terms of seeing a goal and in following the diplomatic rituals. Of course, he managed for a short while to deceive Napoleon (who also had problems in the area of diplomacy) but look at his relations with the Brits: he was practically doing whatever they demanded and by the time of his visit to London the British public viewed him quite favorably but in few days he managed to change attitude to negative by making some seemingly innocent gestures which were interpreted as interfering into the British affairs. Not to mention that even at the best times the Brits were just using him and as soon as the need was gone they introduced the corn laws damaging Russian grain exports.The same goes for the Congress of Vienna: not only was Alexander unable to prevent creation of the anti-Russian block (he should resist inclusion of Bourbon France as an equal partner) but he sucked up to the British-Austrian-French bluff of starting the war against Russia.

 

[Jürgen]

A idea I have found interesting is a partition of Switzerland in the aftermath of the Napoleonic Wars.
My idea was that

Vaud and Geneva became part of Neuchatel (in personal union with Prussia)
Valais ended up going to Sardinia.
Grison and Ticino to Austria
The rest united with Württemberg which also get the southern arm of Baden, which get Alsace instead.

100% realistic maybe not, but it would be pretty interesting, as it would give Prussia a stronger presence in South Germany, strengthen the Austrian position in northern Italy, make Württemberg into a much bigger player.

I also careful avoided using linguistic borders, but instead used some which made strategic and political sense at the time.

 

[knightdepaix]

Poland resurrected as a buffer state.
Duchy of Courland, Duchy of Livonia, Duchy of Estonia, Grand Duchy of Finland resurrected or established but Russian Tsar carried the title of all those Duchies.
To keep Catholic or Christian identities in the Napoleonic Illyrian provinces, Eugène Rose de Beauharnais, Duke of Leuchtenberg, became the governor of the Kingdom of Croatia and Slovenia, the buffer state between Hapsburg, Bavaria, Italy and Serbians in the Balkans. By the time after ww1, Yugoslavia would then not include Croatia and Slovenia, saving the troubles during ww2 and 1990s

 

[alexmilman]

Poland resurrected as a buffer state.
Duchy of Courland, Duchy of Livonia, Duchy of Estonia, Grand Duchy of Finland resurrected or established but Russian Tsar carried the title of all those Duchies.

Sorry, but as far as the Baltic territories are involved, this is a complete fantasy because it means dismantling one of the victorious Great Powers: if Alexander agrees to a doing something of the kind, he may easily end up with one of the deadly diseases from which his grandfather and father died.

Status of Finland had been defined by the agreement between Russia and Sweden and not a subject of discussion at Vienna.

AFAIK, Alexander was the only one who insisted on having at least some Polish state and the idea of it as a buffer state (between whom and whom) belongs to post WWI period and “the Red Scare”: neither Prussia nor Austria wanted any Polish statehood. Why would the victors voluntarily give away parts of their territories to award a nation which was actively involved on the wrong side of a conflict?

 

[Disraeli2004]

Sorry, but as far as the Baltic territories are involved, this is a complete fantasy because it means dismantling one of the victorious Great Powers: if Alexander agrees to a doing something of the kind, he may easily end up with one of the deadly diseases from which his grandfather and father died.

Status of Finland had been defined by the agreement between Russia and Sweden and not a subject of discussion at Vienna.

AFAIK, Alexander was the only one who insisted on having at least some Polish state and the idea of it as a buffer state (between whom and whom) belongs to post WWI period and “the Red Scare”: neither Prussia nor Austria wanted any Polish statehood. Why would the victors voluntarily give away parts of their territories to award a nation which was actively involved on the wrong side of a conflict?

This was the issue for me as well. There doesn't seem to be a reason that Russia would support this arrangement (other than Congress Poland), but I put it out there to explore if there could be a feasible set of Vienna scenarios where Poland gains greater autonomy.