Congo permanently divided as a result of the Congo Crisis

Could the Congo be permanently divided into two states between the Gizenga,Mobuto, and an independent Katanga


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Lusitania

Donor
If Katanga had received American and western support it could of achieved independence. It was linked to Angola to the west which till 1974 could of provided it with both a route for imports and exports. Plus the majority of Congo’s mining was located in the south and could of maintained a strong European presence. But Europe and America threw Jatsnga under the bus
 
I agree that Katanga could have achieved independence with the support of western countries such as the United States. They were also relatively friendly to Belgium, which seems to have a lot of good friends in Europe like the UK. Therefore, if the US and Belgium both advocated for independence, I think it easily could have been achieved.

Dividing the country into East Congo and West Congo would be somewhat interesting. As far as East Congo based in Stanleyville, I don't know a lot about Gizenga, but he doesn't seem quite as bad as Mobutu. This region would also be a bit more developed than it is today. Right now, a lot of infrastructure doesn't exist outside of Kinshasa, yet with this East Congo, I could imagine better infrastructure for this region which should, in turn, lead to some stability. I don't think East Congo would really be a model-democracy, and it would likely have an authoritarian leader since this was such as poor and underdeveloped region without a lot of educated leaders. Yet, I think you would see at least more infrastructure in the region. At the same time, depending on who is in power, you may not see Rwanda led incursions into the Congo, especially if the East Congo government expels the Hutu's who left as a result of the Rwanda genocide.

West Congo, based in Kinshasa/Leopoldville would likely see a more familiar story. Mobutu will still rise to power and enact the same system of government in Zaire. Yet, without Rwandan led rebellion against Mobutu, he likely lives until his death in 1997. That wasn't too long after he was ousted, yet he won't die in exile. This is where things could begin to get a little messy. I'm not sure if Mobutu had a clear successor, but it's quite likely that if there isn't a dispute over who is the next Mobutu, then this new leader's authority would be questioned much more. From there, either democratization or civil war are the likely options. I could see the successor doing either one since they could avoid a civil war and be ousted if they give a false sense of democratization, yet they could rig the elections and continue being president. Or they could continue to hold onto absolute power which would clearly lead to a civil war like the Second Congo Civil War. Regardless, I could see West Congo being a lot like the Congo of today, very poor economy and infrastructure, with rampant corruption, and an authoritarian leader.
 
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