Confederation of the Rhine - prospects?

Supposing - whether as part of a general Napoleonic Victory TL, or what have you - that the Confederation of the Rhine lasts longer. How long would/might it take to centralize and/or become a major European (economic and/or military) power in its own right, analogous to OTL’s Second Reich? And how would it be different?
... this would mean a Germany united by neither Prussia nor Austria. Here the main players are Bavaria, Westphalia, and Saxony, the latter having potential as it has a dual monarchy with the Duchy of Warsaw. And just to drive the point home, let’s say Prussia eventually loses Silesia to Saxony.
 
It wouldn't, at least not in it's Confederate form. The nation would be far more decenteralized and weakly integrated economically, missing key resource areas in the Rhineland, and under the Bonaparte\French influence so it has little chance of reaching the same heights as the 2nd Reich
 
at least not in it's Confederate form
Well, implicit in the OP is that the CotR would be trading in its confederate government for a more centralized form of government (possibly a la the US trading the AoC for the Constitution). Are you saying this isn't possible without the participation of (and thus, to at least some extent, domination by) Prussia and/or Austria?
 
Well, implicit in the OP is that the CotR would be trading in its confederate government for a more centralized form of government (possibly a la the US trading the AoC for the Constitution). Are you saying this isn't possible without the participation of (and thus, to at least some extent, domination by) Prussia and/or Austria?

Why would they and how? The individual member states would have no motivation, be it carrot or stick, to further centeralize without the pressure of some outside threat or internal hegemon pushing them together: at least not outside the broader context of France's system. All that does is sacrifice their power and autonomy for no discernable gain.
 
Why would they and how? The individual member states would have no motivation, be it carrot or stick, to further centeralize without the pressure of some outside threat or internal hegemon pushing them together: at least not outside the broader context of France's system. All that does is sacrifice their power and autonomy for no discernable gain.
Well that's what the thread is asking; but it sounds like, if we have a Napoleonic Europe where the Confederation of the Rhine endures, that Germany (or any remote equivalent) just doesn't happen, or at least doesn't emerge as anything resembling a true nation-state, much less continental power.
 
Well that's what the thread is asking; but it sounds like, if we have a Napoleonic Europe where the Confederation of the Rhine endures, that Germany (or any remote equivalent) just doesn't happen, or at least doesn't emerge as anything resembling a true nation-state, much less continental power.

Correct. I'd argue that its a characteristic of the C.o.t.R that it isen't going to form into a nation-state for a simple reason; its a creation of and only really held together by the factors of a Napoleonic Europe, but in such an environment virtually none of the pressures that would/did lead to German unification IOTL would exist. You could get German unity from a divided Germany without Prussia or Austria, perhaps... but it would have to be in an environment in which the minor states develop mutual security concerns and the growth of industrial power inside their own borders and outside forgien domination that would incentive greater customs-infrastructural unity. In that case, we're probably talking something more like a reformed HRE
 
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