Confederates win the Civil War in 1863. Effects in Latin America

Bullshit. By the 1860s Spain had built up a large and powerful fleet, and was capable pf deploying large numbers of troops into the Americas. This fleet included 7 ironclads and a number of frigates and sloops. Spain would also deploy tens of thousands to Cuba in the Ten Years war starting in 1868.
logistical trouble the CSA would have in projecting power all the way to Cuba and supplying/sustaining an army after what would be a very difficult amphibious landing in hostile territory. The Cuban rebels didn’t even want to be part of a culturally/ethnically similar Empire they had a history with, they’d go nuclear on Anglo slavers trying to waltz in

Eh, this is not necessarily true. Cuba would be less than 100 miles from centers of ostensibly Confederate power in the Caribbean. Worse is that that pro slaver population of Cuba probably has more in common with a government in Richmond than it does in Madrid, so a population of Cuba that is pro slavery probably has more interest in Confederate meddling than in staying a part of Spain.
 
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Paraguya is actually on a very tight spot as like they have disputes with Bolivia, Argentina, Brazil, meanwhile they have an ally regime in Uruguay mianly fighting a proxy war with Brazil. If the pro Paraguay regime won thus avoid the Paraguayan eart, It's like Peru And Bolivia on one side, Paraguay and Uruguay the other, Argentina Brazil Chile meanwhile all against each other,
 
Paraguya is actually on a very tight spot as like they have disputes with Bolivia, Argentina, Brazil, meanwhile they have an ally regime in Uruguay mianly fighting a proxy war with Brazil. If the pro Paraguay regime won thus avoid the Paraguayan eart, It's like Peru And Bolivia on one side, Paraguay and Uruguay the other, Argentina Brazil Chile meanwhile all against each other,
Very interesting power struggle
 
If the pro Paraguay regime won
if the paraguay side of uruguay looks like it will win the war, brazil will intervene as OTL did. probably with the support of argentina as it happened in OTL
It's like Peru And Bolivia on one side
peru and bolivia would be small-scale players. Losing to chile in the pacifive war.
Paraguay and Uruguay the other,
only Paraguay has the strength to have some inposition. uruguay will continue to be a neutral country serving as the belgium between brazil and argentian
Argentina Brazil Chile meanwhile all against each other,
I agree with this
 
likely negociating it. As the American president like negociated to end it and more favourable to the Paraguayans or some considered saved it otl.
I really doubt it considering that the USA was only invited to mediate the dispute on how Paraguay would be divided. Argentina wanted to share Paraguay with Brazil, and Brazil wanted it as the buffer state. USA was not invited to mediate the dispute of the parana river/la plata river and would not be the invited if it occurs. The likely guest if argentina and brazil want to resolve this diplomatically(against Paraguay which I doubt) will probably be the uk
This would be like very interesting, aside from that, South America is a bit like Europe full of competing powers like Bolivia and Peru on one coalition or alliance,
with all due respect to bolivia but it is too weak to do anything
Chile like not being good terms on both of them due to them wanting to control the nitrates which the Peruvians dominate.
among the three chile is the strongest
Bolivia meanwhile under a slow stagnation, and might experience an economic boom and bring back prosperity once the commodities went up again like iirc in the 1870s or 80s. Or at least they manage to stabilize politically, economically and grow and develop, and restore peace order and put out bad leadership and replace it like what Santa Cruz place an efficient system.
for bolivia to improve it needs an outlet to the sea
 
was the South who wanted anex Northern Mexico for do more Slavers States?
Not really, it was the Knights of the Golden Circle group who proposed this as early as 1854, not the Confederate government itself.
The closest that I can see of Confederate expansion (if it is even possible) would be the CS attempting to get Sonora and Chihuahua (or only Sonora in case they keep the Arizona territory) in order to gain access to the Pacific Ocean like in TL-191, but Cuba and elsewhere will be more difficult.
 
Paraguya is actually on a very tight spot as like they have disputes with Bolivia, Argentina, Brazil, meanwhile they have an ally regime in Uruguay mianly fighting a proxy war with Brazil. If the pro Paraguay regime won thus avoid the Paraguayan eart, It's like Peru And Bolivia on one side, Paraguay and Uruguay the other, Argentina Brazil Chile meanwhile all against each other,
Very interesting power struggle
if the paraguay side of uruguay looks like it will win the war, brazil will intervene as OTL did. probably with the support of argentina as it happened in OTL

peru and bolivia would be small-scale players. Losing to chile in the pacifive war.

only Paraguay has the strength to have some inposition. uruguay will continue to be a neutral country serving as the belgium between brazil and argentian

I agree with this
True
 
I'd say if France is still installing Max in Mexico I doubt they'd appreciate the CSA trying to take the northern territories.
Santiago Vidaurri made the offer while the CSA was at war with the United States, I don't think he would have much cared what the French thought about it. But if he's making the offer again, the French might be supportive of it to deny the area to the Republican forces.
 
peru and bolivia would be small-scale players. Losing to chile in the pacifive war.
Peru imo was like not a small scale player then as they are like having prosperity due to guano exports.

Imo even more better than Chile as they are embroiled in a civil war meanwhile Peru was exepreincing prosperity due to guano exportts

Aside from that they even beat spain in a war, a major power a great one during the 1860s.

Bolivia meanwhile is having corruption problems, instability, and it's economy. If they are at least to put an end to instability and fix its economy let's say earlier exploitation of guano and nitrate deposits. And putting a state monopoly there, you'll see that they would be on par with Peru.
 
Peru imo was like not a small scale player then as they are like having prosperity due to guano exports.
Peru will do better, yes, prosper perhaps.
Imo even more better than Chile as they are embroiled in a civil war meanwhile Peru was exepreincing prosperity due to guano exportts
i really doubt that peru will do better in the long run against chile. for this to happen, chile has to make a lot of mistakes
Aside from that they even beat spain in a war, a major power a great one during the 1860s.
the fight against spain was from peru+chile+ecuador+bolivia. It was a coalition against a nation that at the time was a zombie nation. The war had a thousand dead, it was a set of naval battles that favored the locals for obvious reasons.
Bolivia meanwhile is having corruption problems, instability, and it's economy. If they are at least to put an end to instability and fix its economy let's say earlier exploitation of guano and nitrate deposits. And putting a state monopoly there, you'll see that they would be on par with Peru.
no, bolivia will never be able to catch up with peru. It would be the same as saying that greece would be able to compete with italy if it were managed competently.
Bolivia doesn't have a population, agrarian power to grow this population, it doesn't have a coast, and it lost all the wars against other South American countries because of that. Losing even to Paraguay after the Triple Alliance War (having 100 thousand more soldiers and losing twice as much as Paraguay). the country lives in a very hostile area for the creation of a nation. as a province/state the boliva may be able to maintain itself but as an independent it has no capacity.
Even when it had support from the usa like in the war of acre it lost.
the only reason it didn't lose more territory is the fact that no nation was interested in taking more territory
 
Bolivia doesn't have a population, agrarian power to grow this population,
Wdym, look they have like 2m people in the 1850s, aside from like everything going downhill after Santa Cruz's exile and destruction of the confederation. Which also went up back up again during Balivian's dictatorship downhill again
Then uphill during Linares for a bit due to huge reforms, and stabilization Linares did only for him to declare himself dictator president for life in 1858 due to internal problems then get overthrown at 1861. Have him not declare that, mainly imo have less rebellions more stable position etc. Technically he gained many enemies due to his attacks against abuses corruption and powerful interests who don't like his reforms iirc
 
i really doubt that peru will do better in the long run against chile. for this to happen, chile has to make a lot of mistakes
They are pretty much on autopilot during that time, have Peru do less mistakes and you'll see them alot better than Chile, earlier exploitation of nitrate deposits before they go into problems mainly financial as guano deposits runs low and less quality. If that happens you'll see them continue the prosperity from the guano era but this time backed by the exploitation of nitrate reserves
 
After the war iirc Bolivia experienced prosperity due to the high prices of export commodities, then a liberal revolt backed by the indians as the conservatives went there and introduced land ownership which they seized land from them. They then continued that again the Indians revolted, later meanwhile a new commodity was on demand and high prices mainly tin, again on prosperity till ww1 when prices crashed. Later a revolt happens
 
I remember you was the South who wanted anex Northern Mexico for do more Slavers States? In my opinion, they gonna try to conquer or use the instability in Mexico for invade it and later they gonna invade Cuba for the sugar.
idk so. CSA and the USA military will be both exhausted, and economically ruined. I even think Mexico would declare war on both to reconquer Tejas and southern parts of the USA. Maybe everything down to Fresno could be returned to the Mexico. idk, many butterflies.
 
idk so. CSA and the USA military will be both exhausted, and economically ruined. I even think Mexico would declare war on both to reconquer Tejas and southern parts of the USA. Maybe everything down to Fresno could be returned to the Mexico. idk, many butterflies.
Mexico is embroiled in a war against France and their conservative allies and is practically on a civil war since the late 1850s. They're also exhausted and ruined
 
Wdym, look they have like 2m people in the 1850s, aside from like everything going downhill after Santa Cruz's exile and destruction of the confederation. Which also went up back up again during Balivian's dictatorship downhill again
the next census is carried out in 1882, in which the population is at 1,172,152 M. This would indicate that the country lost 50% of the population in less than thirty years. that is no dowhill that is the apocalypse.

18351,060,777−0.65%
18451,378,896+2.66%
18542,326,126+5.98%
18821,172,156−2.42%

for some reason in less than 10 years the population has doubled which is strange
 
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After the war iirc Bolivia experienced prosperity due to the high prices of export commodities, then a liberal revolt backed by the indians as the conservatives went there and introduced land ownership which they seized land from them. They then continued that again the Indians revolted, later meanwhile a new commodity was on demand and high prices mainly tin, again on prosperity till ww1 when prices crashed. Later a revolt happens
then bolivia is the venezuela of the 19th century. a nation with a single resource and that lives or dies due to its price. a nation suffering from Dutch disease
 
then bolivia is the venezuela of the 19th century. a nation with a single resource and that lives or dies due to its price. a nation suffering from Dutch disease
Wdym they have like alot of resources like ranging from silver and gold to copper and tin
 
I really doubt it considering that the USA was only invited to mediate the dispute on how Paraguay would be divided. Argentina wanted to share Paraguay with Brazil, and Brazil wanted it as the buffer state. USA was not invited to mediate the dispute of the parana river/la plata river and would not be the invited if it occurs. The likely guest if argentina and brazil want to resolve this diplomatically(against Paraguay which I doubt) will probably be the uk
Definitely would not Give peace talks with Brazil and Argentina on the Behalf for the Paraguay.
The US is too busy with the Confederacy on North America then War on South America, Paraguayan will spIt off to be Brazilian and Argentinian after the war.
 
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