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POD: The Confederates continue to press their advantage after First Bull Run, even if it is a few lower level commanders who seize the iniative in a fluid situation.
They chase the fleeing Union army and civillian spectators all the way back to Washington, and force the capitol's paniced evacuation. At least some of the Union's political leadership are captured or killed in the ensuing chaos.
President Lincoln and some of his staff are captured in Baltimore by a pro-Southern militia. They make plans to send him to Richmond as a prisoner.
Vice President Hannibal Hamlin turns up in Philadelphia. He is the acting President. Not all his military and political advisers are sure that trying to recover Lincoln is worth the effort.