Confederate victory's effects on Europe

Not much. Unless an intervention caused hurt feelings between Britain and France and the Union. But at the time the south had what they wanted Cotton so no.
 
Short term there would be little effect, but there would be several effects.

The European powers were already dealing with nationalism - more foreign colonies and more ethnic minorities within the European states were wanting independence. A successful Confederate secession will give encouragement to separatist movements across the globe and lead to greater fears of separatism by the European Powers. Russia tried to deal with ethnic minorities by Russification, attempts to eliminate the language and culture of those ethnic minorities. Russia may well increase the level of attempted Russification, and if it appears to work, other countries may attempt to copy Russia's actions. Austria tried to deal with ethnic minorities by granting them more autonomy. They'd already become the dual kingdom of Austria-Hungary, they might try to become a triple or even quadruple kingdom. Again, if their plan seems to be working, other countries my try to emulate Austria. Of course, both approaches failed in OTL - the Austrian Empire fragmented and parts of the Russian Empire broke away. Greater encouragement of separatism could also accelerate the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, possibly riggering a Great War sooner than in OTL

Conversely, Confederate independence could lead to the theory that too large of a state would inevitably lead to sectionalism and breakup. This could delay or possibly even prevent the level of German and Italian unification seen in OTL and might make European powers less enthusiastic about colonialism. Republics will be seen as less stable then monarchies. Independence movements that do succeed would be more likely to set up kings than presidents. France will probably manage enough of a success in Mexico that the Monroe Doctrine will be dead. Central and South America will join Africa, southern Asia, and the islands of the Pacific as targets for European colonial expansion. This might spread European power thinner, allowing some states in the other regions to maintain independence. It also gives more chances for the scramble for colonies triggering wars among European powers.

Europe will be paying more for Confederate cotton. The Confederate Constitution allowed tariffs on exports, and the Confederacy would definitely tax exports to pay off their war debt. That could lessen the post-war collapse of Indian cotton production and encourage the growth of Egyptian, and perhaps Brazilian and Chinese cotton production. It will probably lead to former blockade runners being repurposed for cotton smuggling, which could lead to a diplomatic incident when a European-owned ship is interned by the Confederates. The American South was expansionistic before, during, and after the Civil War. In addition a firm belief in Manifest Destiny, cotton and tobacco caused soil exhaustion and the need for new, more fertile land to grow them. The Confederacy will try to expand into the Caribbean or Central America, probably unsuccessfully, as most of what they want already belongs to a European power. A Union of Central American states becomes more likely. There is a chance of a Mexican-Confederate War. Also, the worldwide move to abolition of slavery will probably slow and slave smuggling to the South will increase.

A lot of people see the Confederacy being pulled into the European Alliance system, but OTL's USA wasn't important enough to make a long term alliance with, so the Confederacy certainly won't be. OTOH, the Confederacy might manage an alliance for the duration of a single war. The Confederacy's most likely allies would be other latecomers to the colonial race, like Germany or Italy, working together in Central America or the Caribbean. Butterflies could even result in changes to the long-term European alliances. The League of Three Emperors between Germany, Austria, and Russia lasted from 1873 to 1887 before falling apart due to conflicts between Austria and Russia. In OTL, Germany then went with a Dual Alliance with Austria. Had Germany chosen Russia instead, history would have gone very differently.

European immigrants to the USA generally went to free states - in 1850 New York had more immigrants than all 11 states that formed the Confederacy a decade later. An independent Confederacy will see less immigration than OTL's post-war South, which most of those immigrants will generally go to the Union instead, increasing its population above OTL. If more European states copy the Russification model, more ethic minorities would probably emigrate to the Union. Europeans who favor Republicanism over Monarchism would be more likely to emigrate to the USA than in OTL, which would probably increase support for Monarchism in Europe.
 
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