Confederate victory at Sharpsburg, What happens next?

[Everdarklegion]

Following the Confederate victory at Sharpsburg (September 17, 1862), General Robert E. Lee is left with a choice. Either continue northward toward Philadelphia, or attempt to capture Washington. Meeting with his Corps commanders, Lt. General Thomas (Stonewall) Jackson and Lt. General James Longstreet, Lee is persuaded by Jackson to attack Washington.
The plan was simple, Jackson would swing his Corps around Washington and attack from the rear, while Longstreet and some Twenty thousand additional troops as well as his own ten thousand attacked from the South.
The result was exactly as Jackson predicted. With a simultaneous two pronged attack, Union General McClellan refused to engage the entirety of The Army of the Potomac, convinced that more Confederate troops were on their way. On October 11, 1862, Union President Abraham Lincoln is forced to retreat to Philadelphia. On Lincoln's trail, is McClellan.
The capture of Washington is enough for Great Britain to force both side's to sue for peace. The Treaty of Paris of 1863, established the Confederate States of America as a independent nation. The Union was forced to give up Maryland, Kentucky and both the New Mexico and Arizona Territories.



What do y'all think? Is this a believable scenario?

 

[Virginia Liberal]

I'm going with Baltimore because unless Lee has managed to defeat the army of Potomac in detail in which case 191 would never have been lost then found he isn't in a position to advance on DC. Lee doesn't have the numbers to take and hold DC. However he does have the numbers to take Baltimore after defeating the AoP in western Maryland or southern Pennsylvania, which could allow the Maryland secessionist to break the state away from the union making Washington look untenable if even if the Maryland succession is in name only, which could bring France in. Britain won't enter because of Slavery but they may just give Napoleon III the wink and nudge he needs to jump in, he was close after Fredericksburg OTL, with the Union losing big in 1862 he might bite.

 

[Queeney]

I would go for Baltimore, as taking such a prestigious target would, in addition to likely starting a panic by cutting off Washington from the rest of the country, largely demoralise Union troops.

 

[Everdarklegion]

I'm going with Baltimore because unless Lee has managed to defeat the army of Potomac in detail in which case 191 would never have been lost then found he isn't in a position to advance on DC. Lee doesn't have the numbers to take and hold DC. However he does have the numbers to take Baltimore after defeating the AoP in western Maryland or southern Pennsylvania, which could allow the Maryland secessionist to break the state away from the union making Washington look untenable if even if the Maryland succession is in name only, which could bring France in. Britain won't enter because of Slavery but they may just give Napoleon III the wink and nudge he needs to jump in, he was close after Fredericksburg OTL, with the Union losing big in 1862 he might bite.

I agree that holding Washington would be impossible for the South. But if the South could take D.C even briefly then the Union's moral is potentially shattered. It would also cement the idea that the C.S.A. could effectively defend itself and launch a effective offensive.

 

[Everdarklegion]

I would go for Baltimore, as taking such a prestigious target would, in addition to likely starting a panic by cutting off Washington from the rest of the country, largely demoralise Union troops.

If the South could capture any major city in the North, the Union would be demoralized anyway. The question is to what degree. To me Washington and Philadelphia are the most desired targets. Either one being captured would have devastating repercussions.

Philadelphia was the first capitol of the US, the place where the colonies became the United States, birth place of our Declaration of Independence, The US Constitution and Bill of Rights. While the city may not be the crown jewel of the Union, the symbolic nature of Philadelphia makes it a great target.

 

[Raferty]

Lee would likely have taken a pounding at Sharpsburg to a point where further offensive action in 1862 would be quite dubious at best. Keep in mind that Jackson's Corps had already been hit hard at 2nd Manassas.

I am not seeing where the manpower needed to go after one of those three cities exists. Perhaps Baltimore, but that would be extremely risky as McCllelan would not retreat north after losing at Sharpsburg but rather to the Southeast to protect Washington.

Lee would have supply lines that would be extremely precarious at best.

Unless the defeat at Sharpsburg is decisive, as in causing mass casualties but not suffering them, most likely, Lee retreats behind the Potomac as in OTL.

 

[Arnold d.c]

If we follow Lee's line of thought on the day before Antietam, Lee had intended to turn McClellan's right and march west to Hagerstown. It is likely that Lee never thought of attacking Baltimore to sever the supply line to Washington, given that doing so have meant abandoning his own line of communication. Lee's whole plan centred around inflicting a decisive military and political victory in western Maryland, not taking the most fortified city on earth. If by some miracle, Lee won an Austerlitz at Antietam, I imagine that Lee would try to maintain his grasp on Western Maryland to tap into the resources of the state. From there, Lee could raid Pennsylvania for more resources as he did in the Gettysburg Campaign. Lee's ultimate goal, however, was to inflict as much damage as he could on Union morale to get them to stop fighting. Fighting the decisive battle with the Army of the Potomac was the endgame of Lee's maneuvers. It's possible that Lee would pursue McClellan if the latter retreats in hopes of inflicting a decisive blow. It all really depends on how decisive the victory at Antietam is.

For what it's worth, I can't see a crushing victory at Antietam. Lee's army was already severely weakened by a great number of stragglers and the balance of power would shift even more in the favor of McClellan as reinforcements and stragglers join the Army of the Potomac.

Following the Confederate victory at Sharpsburg (September 17, 1862), General Robert E. Lee is left with a choice. Either continue northward toward Philadelphia, or attempt to capture Washington. Meeting with his Corps commanders, Lt. General Thomas (Stonewall) Jackson and Lt. General James Longstreet, Lee is persuaded by Jackson to attack Washington.
The plan was simple, Jackson would swing his Corps around Washington and attack from the rear, while Longstreet and some Twenty thousand additional troops as well as his own ten thousand attacked from the South.
The result was exactly as Jackson predicted. With a simultaneous two pronged attack, Union General McClellan refused to engage the entirety of The Army of the Potomac, convinced that more Confederate troops were on their way. On October 11, 1862, Union President Abraham Lincoln is forced to retreat to Philadelphia. On Lincoln's trail, is McClellan.
The capture of Washington is enough for Great Britain to force both side's to sue for peace. The Treaty of Paris of 1863, established the Confederate States of America as a independent nation. The Union was forced to give up Maryland, Kentucky and both the New Mexico and Arizona Territories.

Why would Lee attack the forts of Washington? Lee knew that the defenses of Washington were formidable and there was a sizable garrison to protect it, including the III and XI Corps. Even if Lee isolates the city, Washington could still be resupplied from the sea.

 

[elkarlo]

Just raid. Get supplies, burn stuff and try to get back to NV in early fall without another major engagement. This helps NV recover and the loot would help the supply situation

 

[Nagisaki]

He can't get to Philadelphia. He was already stretching his supply lines thin as it was by crossing the Potomac. Good fucking luck crossing the Susquehanna, which has almost no good crossings. Like, the only good crossing of that river at this time is Harrisburg, and that's only if the Union troops don't blow the bridge.

 

[elkarlo]

He can't get to Philadelphia. He was already stretching his supply lines thin as it was by crossing the Potomac. Good fucking luck crossing the Susquehanna, which has almost no good crossings. Like, the only good crossing of that river at this time is Harrisburg, and that's only if the Union troops don't blow the bridge.

I agree with everything else, but it's the susquehanna pretty shallow? I've never forded it but it always seemed pretty shallow to me. A mile wide and a foot deep they say iirc

 

[Nagisaki]

I agree with everything else, but it's the susquehanna pretty shallow? I've never forded it but it always seemed pretty shallow to me. A mile wide and a foot deep they say iirc

There aren't many fords on the Susquehanna. The Susquehanna is relatively shallow, but it's still 10-20 feet deep in most places.

 

[elkarlo]

There aren't many fords on the Susquehanna. The Susquehanna is relatively shallow, but it's still 10-20 feet deep in most places.

Is It? Even in summer? Didn't know that, thanks.

 

[Mumph]

Yeah, Lee taking Washington after somehow winning at Antietam isn't going to happen. Assuming he takes comparable casualties to Antietam he is not going to have enough men to assault Washington, saying nothing of an artillery train or anything like that. It was arguably one of the most fortified places on Earth in 1862 and the Garrison wasn't weak like it was in 1864. Plus both the III Corps and XI Corps were in the city in addition to the regular heavy artillery units.

No amount of dash or elan is going to take Washington during the civil war-after 1861 it's basically the Sea Lion of the civil war.

Lee would also need to cripple, if not outright destroy the Army of the Potomac in order to facilitate any freedom of movement. Even in a TL-191 scenario I still find it questionable that Lee even had enough men to throw at McClellan in order to accomplish that-he could certainly achieve a limited victory like at Chancellorsville but that's if he gets really lucky. For all his faults as a general McClellan was not going to be put in the position Lee needed for a decisive victory.

TLD;Lee could get a limited victory out of the Maryland Campaign, but that's about it.

 

[Some Bloke]

Even Baltimore would be a stretch, and would probably depend on McClellan's army bring routed rather than retreating in good order. Unless a Confederate victory encourages pro secession Marylanders to do something stupid.

 

[elkarlo]

This I Newt Gingrichs book does the best with a WI about Lee in Maryland. After Gettysburg but anyhow. Taking Baltimore was possible, but that ends up being a millstone. As it's far away and bard to defend, us it's a Harbor and the Union has naval superiority.
The more Lee takes in Maryland the more he ties himself down and makes it more likely he gets Gettysburged later on. He isn't going to take DC short of a miracle.
Still him living off the land and loot as much to give Virginia a break is probably the beet bet.

 

[Johnrankins]

The thing to remember is that while Little Mac's overcautious nature prevented him from winning an overwhelming victory it also prevented him from losing an overwhelming defeat. I can't see him losing badly enough for it to matter much. It would be Lee's normal pyrrhic victory and he is forced to go back to Virginia.

 

[SwampTiger]

I agree a Confederate victory at Sharpsburg/Antietam would not have a huge effect on the result of the war. It would have ripple effects in the Tennessee and Mississippi Valley operations. The US will draw troops from those regions to offset the temporary weakness in the east. We would see a much weaker McClellan in the political arena. The Army of the Potomac will still see a succession of weak leaders, unless Hooker can avoid his crisis.

 

[Arnold d.c]

I agree a Confederate victory at Sharpsburg/Antietam would not have a huge effect on the result of the war. It would have ripple effects in the Tennessee and Mississippi Valley operations. The US will draw troops from those regions to offset the temporary weakness in the east. We would see a much weaker McClellan in the political arena. The Army of the Potomac will still see a succession of weak leaders, unless Hooker can avoid his crisis.

I have to disagree. Throughout the American Civil War large scale transfer of troops from the Western Theater to the Eastern Theater and vice versa was extremely rare and only done so under specific or extreme circumstances. The IX Corps was only transferred to Kentucky after Burnside was exiled and the XI and XII Corps were transferred when the Army of the Cumberland was at the risk of surrendering at Chattanooga. In this case, the Army of the Potomac is badly bloodied but not on the risk of surrendering. The III and XI Corps are still recuperating at Washington and could be called up if absolutely necessary. In addition, the large number of stragglers prior to the battle of Antietam would replenish the Army of the Potomac's ranks for another fight.

 

[Fiver]

What do y'all think? Is this a believable scenario?

Put simply, no.

Robert E Lee never should have fought the Battle of Antietam. He had no chance of winning and a significant chance of getting his army destroyed. Actual history is probably the best the Confederates could hope for at Antietam. Even if Lee does better than in OTL, he will lack the supplies and ammunition to continue the campaign. If Lee had attacked Washington DC, he would be facing a Union army that outnumbered him and was behind some of the strongest fortifications in existence. There was no place for Jackson to attack from the rear. The most probable result is the annihilation of Lee's Army of Northern Virginia.

 

[EnglishCanuck]

The thing to remember is that while Little Mac's overcautious nature prevented him from winning an overwhelming victory it also prevented him from losing an overwhelming defeat. I can't see him losing badly enough for it to matter much. It would be Lee's normal pyrrhic victory and he is forced to go back to Virginia.

Hell the win at Antietam was that Lee retreated from the field, McClellan didn't even out general Lee, but Lee's army was so exhausted from fighting hard it couldn't remain on the the field. The only "win" Lee could pull off is if McClellan somehow decided he couldn't hold his position at Antietam and retreated instead.

The only real butterflies are Lincoln probably has to deliver the initial Preliminary Emancipation Proclamation sometime in 1863 rather than in 1862.