Something similar happened to the CSA in @TastySpam's "Dixieland: The Country of Tomorrow, Everyday (yet another Confederate TL)" which I recall had Spain brutally curbstomp the Confederacy.
Confederate Victory’s Effect on European History
- Thread starter Tresckow
- Start date
I think you'd see a much stronger Franco-Austrian alliance as a result of France's Mexican adventures. Maximilian I was Austrian IIRC, and both are Catholic nations at this point. You could see a successful Mexican adventure being the jumping off point of closer Franco-Austrian relations, possibly to the point that both, fueled by victory in Mexico, take an earlier and more aggressive approach to halting Prussian expansion in the Germanic states. Maybe France sides with Austria and Bavaria in the 1866 war, and combined they manage to keep the Prussians at bay. That likely butterflies away or significantly delays the Franco-Prussian War, so France maintains control of the Alsace-Lorraine region and is overall a stronger power. Germany may remain divided into a northern Prussian dominated state and a southern Austrian dominated state, with some conflicts between them occurring throughout the 1870s-1890s. Austria might still form the dual monarchy with Hungary if only to consolidate its backdoor in the face of increased pressure from Prussia.
That kind of alliance likely alters a lot of European politics leading into WW1. Without a unified Germany, Britain might start to see the Franco-Austrian alliance as the greater threat to the balance of power, and combined with France's more conservative leadership ITTL and likely being aligned closer with the slave state CSA, Britain might distance itself from France and cozy up to Prussia. Just spitballing there of course.
That kind of alliance likely alters a lot of European politics leading into WW1. Without a unified Germany, Britain might start to see the Franco-Austrian alliance as the greater threat to the balance of power, and combined with France's more conservative leadership ITTL and likely being aligned closer with the slave state CSA, Britain might distance itself from France and cozy up to Prussia. Just spitballing there of course.
To the point where Savannah becomes an analog for Hong Kong IOTL. Granted, it was under a Prussianized Spain where a Hohenzollern takes the throne but still.
JWQ
Banned
I wonder what spains impact would be?
Spain might be made great again if they decided to intervene on behalf of the confederacy. Spain had as late as mid-1863 had been interested in a joint Franco Spanish intervention. If war broke out, Spain probably would be occupied in the European theater of operation against Prussia and Russia. Its most crucial element would be in Cuba aiding the allied powers through ports and dry docks and having the Spanish fleet help the south.War increases industrial growth and this war might just be what Spain can be used to make it self even stronger
After the war was over, Spain government would have demanded large war reparations to cover the cost of their conflict and remedy Spain's Shaky financial system. Spain's economy will grow closer to the confederacy as the south is a worthy customer of Spain's developing industries.
Prelude
In historical reality, Spain had strongly considered participating in the Crimean War. If they had done so, they would have sent at least 20,000 soldiers subsidized by the french and British governments. They didn't. One of the fears was that America would take Cuba as Russia had the most favored nation Status in America. Spain's industrial railways expanded throughout the country, and in the 1850s, it was put on the list of great powers again as it indeed had the fourth largest navy in the world. The country was experiencing financial reforms.
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There is no way that Russia and Prussia would intervene in favor of the Union. Russia was still recovering from Crimea and only sent ships to American ports to avoid being bottled up in case of war with Britain (a war that Russia desperately did not want). Prussia is even more bizarre. It was occupied with affairs in Germany.
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JWQ
Banned
Imperial Russia’s alliance with the union https://www.voltairenet.org/article169488.html
Countries often don't want to go to war, but the bold circumstances lead to war. So WAr is sometimes the only resolution to resolve. For example, most Americans found they didn't want a fight in the American Civil War but chose to be willing participants.
Russia is desperate for an Allie, and the union is a willing Allie if the war between France and Great Britain occurs. The USA has the Monroe doctrine to enforce after the American civil war, and Russia can keep British India and other imperial impetions in check
Russia can take revenge for her losses from the Crimean war, acquire an ally and possibly win against great Britain and France. Russia will lead a coalition of Prussia, the ottoman empire, and maybe Italy to back the united states against Britain and France and their allies.
.The union-backed coalition isn't as likely to be as effective considering these were Russia's former enemies. The liberation of Poland will likely be crushed as historical given the proximity to Russia and Prussia. The advantage to Russia is that it's a land-based empire, and neither Britain wished to be in a projected war in America nor Europe. The optimistic CSA alliance approach is that the bismarck dream will be killed while it was just stillborn. Austria will likely back France as the archdukes' brother is in Mexicos monarch and was Prussia's old enemy.
“Never so you say”
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Yeah I doubt either Prussia or Russia would intervene during the war itself on behalf of the Union. The former didn’t even express direct pro-Union support. I can see America and Russia forming an alliance later on though.
Why didn't the British go revanchist after losing the American Revolution?
Countries don't always go revanchist after losing territories. In fact, if the CSA turns into an economic and political basket case, the US might even be glad to not have the Southern States, because otherwise that'd mean that the CSA's problems would be their problems.
That's a very Americentric view of abolition which completely ignores things like the work done by the West African Squadron. Do you really think abolitionists elsewhere are going to go 'well, I guess we might as well give up' because some slavers won a war?
Again, a very Americentric view. Reformers in Britain/France/etc. aren't going to give up simply because the Union lost the ACW. Debates on domestic political reform don't revolve around what's going on in a strange country on another continent.
In fact, it could even speed up the struggle for democratic rights. If fewer people emigrate to the US, then they're going to stick around in their native countries and start pressing for reforms there.
Not to mention that the CSA will come under more and more international pressure as the campaign against slavery intensifies.
It sould be noted that from 1868 to 1878 the long and brutal 10 years war happens in Cuba, lead by wethy land lords and partly caused by Spain getting read of slavery, so if any war for Cuba happens it would be then (I also happen to think Spain wouldn't do well, the Confederate leadership push during the Civil war for a big navy and I see no reason they sould stop if they sould win, even if the American nations reconsider it will take decades for that to happen)
Also I question how decentralized the Confederate government was by there own constitution, the president for example has a line item veto (which means they can gust take out lines they don't like from a bill and then pass it) wich is a huge increase in power for the executive branch compared to the USA, and the judicial system was weaker as well. Hell a Professor I had even used this to show that the Confederates didn't care about states rights because there constitution was stronger the the one in use in America!
Also I question how decentralized the Confederate government was by there own constitution, the president for example has a line item veto (which means they can gust take out lines they don't like from a bill and then pass it) wich is a huge increase in power for the executive branch compared to the USA, and the judicial system was weaker as well. Hell a Professor I had even used this to show that the Confederates didn't care about states rights because there constitution was stronger the the one in use in America!
For a view that the US victory over the Confederacy did indeed advance abolitionism internationally:
"The American Civil War was also a critical turning point in the struggle over slavery in both Cuba and Brazil. The defeat of the slaveholding Confederacy had a powerful effect on public opinion in both empires...The 'civilized world' had condemned slavery, and abolition in the United States was the last nail in the coffin of proslavery respectability. In Spain an abolitionist society formed in 1865, and Spanish legislators raised the question of the future of slavery in the Caribbean. In Brazil, Dom Pedro II suggested to his cabinet that they consider a plan for gradual emancipation; *all of these actors explicitly noted the end of slavery in the United States as a principal motivating factor.* [my emphasis--DT]
"With Washington DC no longer acting internationally in the interests of slaveholders, the United States finally cooperated with Great Britain in its decades-long effort to abolish the transatlantic slave trade. The Anglophone nations pressured Spain, which formally abolished its slave trade in 1866. The Spanish government also created the *Junta de Informacion sobre Ultramar* to consider colonial reforms, including the gradual abolition of slavery...The Junta disbanded with few accomplishments, which frustrated the ambitions of colonists and abolitionists alike and laid the seeds of a war on independence that would come.
"Spain's actions inspired Dom Pedro to finally make public his desire to see gradual abolition in Brazil. His 1867 address to the newly elected Chamber of Deputies charged them to consider the future of the empire's 'servile element' with a view to ending slavery. With small steps, the emperor had already begun to act toward this end. In July 1866 he responded to the petition of a French abolitionist society by observing that emancipation was 'nothing more than a question of method and opportunity. In November he granted freedom to government-owned slaves who agreed to serve as soldiers in the Paraguayan War and strongly encouraged private slaveholders to grant manumissions for the same purpose. But slaveholders were Dom Pedro's most powerful supporters, and their interests would not be ignored. These initial steps foundered, but the question of emancipation had been raised, and it did not go away...
"Conflict in Cuba and the Spanish government's [1870] Moret law contributed powerfully to Dom Pedro's ability to move the passage of Brazil's own [the Rio Branco Law]...Like the Emancipation Proclamation in the United States these laws were more important for their symbolic impacts than for the number of enslaved people freed through the formal mechanisms they put in place...
"In the urban centers of Brazil, which had grown in wealth and sophistication over the years, the advance of international abolitionism inspired many. Brazil's abolitionist movement took off in the late 1870's when reformer-legislators...became disenchanted with the inadequacy of the Rio Branco Law and publicly dedicated themselves to immediate abolition.."
Edward B. Rugemer, "Why Civil War? the Politics of Slavery in International Perspective, " in *The Civil War as Global Conflict: Transnational Meanings of the American Civil War* edited by David T. Gleeson and Simon Lewis (University of South Carolina Press 2014).
https://books.google.com/books?id=Ucy7BwAAQBAJ&pg=PT27
Also, on Brazil, see Gerald Horne, The Deepest South: The United States, Brazil, and the African Slave Trade https://nyupress.org/books/9780814736883/ on the interest taken by southerners in the idea of an alliance of the world's two great slaveholding powers.,
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That's still likely to happen in a world where the CSA wins. The Union will probably abolish slavery in the border states in a few years, and any lingering resentment against Britain IMO isn't enough to stop them from cooperating to end slavery elsewhere (especially since it'd be a way to stick it to the CSA).
Okay here’s my thought.
CSA survives.
Mexican Empire either survives or at least survive longer.
France doesn’t start the Franco-Prussian War.
No German Unification. NGC serve as a Kleinkleindeutschland.
The 2nd Empire likely fall to a popular revolt, a small chance it simply reforms.
The New Age of Colonialism still happens.
CSA survives.
Mexican Empire either survives or at least survive longer.
France doesn’t start the Franco-Prussian War.
No German Unification. NGC serve as a Kleinkleindeutschland.
The 2nd Empire likely fall to a popular revolt, a small chance it simply reforms.
The New Age of Colonialism still happens.
Not to be overly nitpicky, but public opinion in Brazil was massively supportive of slavery (not including slaves as members of the public here, obviously) up till after abolition was in force. Dom Pedro and his cabinet never enacted any measures to end slavery, which only occurred in 1888 at the order of Princess Isabel. Cuba, also, didn't see any popular abolitionist movements as a result of the American Civil War and only abolished slavery in 1886.
For the record, considering that most of Latin America had abolished slavery before the ACW broke out, I suspect that local conditions, especially surrounding the difficulties of recruiting free workers to work plantations that also employed slaves and the shrinking number of slaves available, were the real drivers of abolitionist decisions in Latin America, and that the late holdouts giving up in the 1880s relates to generational change in their political leadership (Dom Pedro to Princess Isabel in Brazil being the obvious illustrative example) rather than any American inspiration.
JWQ
Banned
Russia had already promised to come to the aid of the north
It makes no sense to do it after the Union is split where the Union will hold a Grudge for Russia not coming to their assistance when America needed her the most. The Crimean war was devastating for Russia, but the pro-union Ottomans canceled out Crimea being used as a Warzone. Instead allied intervention will occur because of Poland. Russia Canada mass most of their army to threaten India through Afghanistan
The Russians can amass much of their army to threaten India through which is vulnerable. The more Russia can tie down British and French troops the easier the union Can take Canada.
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